Thx for this, it's helpful to have something to look at. 3 thoughts, first the defection can't be any more than the shim size and as you have rightly said contact between the neck and body can be minimal it's likely to be much less than that. Next if your theory is right we might expect the screws to need tightening after a while as the neck deforms. It would be interesting to hear if people find this to be so. I haven't but I'm not a very good statistical sample! Thirdly I'm not sure from your diagram how the skijump forms after the neck has left the pocket. I'm interested in all of this as I've a lovely fender jazz neck with awful skijump but i haven't plucked up the courage yet to take the frets off and shave a bit off the finger board.
All the best