ambient

Meanwhile they’re discussing tightening the travel restrictions, and possibly banning foreign holidays this year. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/23/summer-holidays-cancelled-uk-faces-big-decision-on-border

Plucked from someone’s nether regions.

The BMC are requesting they think again about increasing the gap between the two vaccinations. Apparently there is no research into how effective giving the second jab after three months rather than three weeks will be. It might just be a complete waste of time, and ultimately end up setting us back. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/23/doctors-call-shorter-gap-pfizer-covid-vaccine-doses-uk

They do reckon that you’ll need at least one vaccination per year. So you’re probably right.

This also mentions they’re using some rather controversial calculations to stretch the period between the two jabs. Chris Whitty mentioned last night, immunity from the vaccination isn’t permanent, and probably only last four or five months. That suggests a slope in immunity, so stretching the gap between the two to three months might mean that the second will have less affect at three months, rather than at three months as the makers and everyone else recommend. They mentioned on News at Ten last night, that - I think it was the BMA - were writing to the government asking them to think again about the current strategy, whereby it seems to be a competition between us and the rest of the world, over the number of injections given - a one sided competition, I’m not sure anyone else is playing.

This is an interesting analysis of the vaccination programme. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210114-covid-19-how-effective-is-a-single-vaccine-dose?fbclid=IwAR25Oh3925dgTmqBJLfEvlutz7BrwZsoMRBlb-edKYaDMu9cU8yaLxVJLKM

I think it’s incredibly sad personally.

How many will have been vaccinated by then, more to the point though, how many will have received the second vaccination then? My parents don't get their second injection until April. The first dose only gives a maximum protection of 52%, which lasts - according to Chris Whitty just four or five months - that’s according to his comments at today’s press conference. I seriously cannot see them allowing live music to take place in pubs in May.

I think you’re right - I try and remain positive, hoping we’ll get a semblance of normality later in the year - but the more rational part of me believes that what we had has gone. There will be live music, but not I think as we once knew it. There’s a French classical guitarist that I follow, I’ve seen him doing concerts recently - though a classical concert is obviously a far more restrained affair than your typical pub gig.

Pardon?

Who knows. The experts don’t know with any degree of certainty. One thing I do know, is I’m going to keep the promise I made to myself - I’m going to take full advantage of every musical opportunity that I’m offered when it is over.

An interesting article in the Guardian this evening. Apparently they lost £5 million as a result of last year’s cancellation. https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/jan/22/emily-eavis-tells-of-hopes-for-livestreamed-glastonbury-show

I’ve just shown this to my dad. He thought I was being funny this morning, when I told him he couldn’t go with my brother in his car to collect a prescription. My dad had his first vaccination a fortnight ago, we have to keep reminding him that nothing has really changed.

I think when you see comments like this, from Chris Whitty, you can pretty much write off gigging for the foreseeable future - copied and pasted from the Guardian’s live feed. Q. Can those who have been vaccinated mix together? Whitty says even with a very effective vaccine, there’s a period of time straight after where there’s no effect for 2 or 3 weeks. That protection won’t even be complete with two vaccines, he says. At the moment, a very large proportion of people you come into contact with could have the virus, he says - on average 1 in 55, or 1 in 35 in London. There is a residual risk even if you’ve had the vaccine, he says. The rates of infections need to come right down by staying at home while others get vaccinated, he says. Vallance says we still don’t know how effective the vaccines are at stopping you from catching the virus or passing the virus on. It’s very important not to assume you can’t catch it or pass it on after vaccination, he says. 7m ago 17:21 They are taking questions from the public now. Q. Will the delay in getting a second dose of the vaccine reduce levels of protection and if so how much? Whitty says the first dose gives the great majority of the protection, but the second increases that and makes it longer lasting too. The idea is to double the number of people that can get vaccinated, he says. Because our major limitation is the number of vaccines the UK has to give, half the number of people would have been vaccinated in this very risky period if we hadn’t extended the time, he says. Once you get protection initially it lasts a reasonable period of time, he says, likely up to five months, like if you had the virus.

That’s why it’s ridiculous to compare us to Sweden, as many have.

If only we were an island.

I didn’t know that, it seems pretty sensible though. Why go to the expense of organising anything, if you’re going to need to cancel, and you can’t get insurance?

I just spotted this in the Guardian. It hadn’t occurred to me that these events wouldn’t be insured - they would need communicable disease cover, which they generally don’t take out. The UK insurance sector isn’t currently offering Covid insurance, so it’s unlikely I guess that anyone will go ahead and organise an event until that’s sorted out. Though how much will it cost, given that nobody really knows what the situation will be in six weeks time, let alone six months time. https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/jan/22/government-stalls-on-insurance-scheme-for-uk-music-festivals

This!

Yep. That’s what my dad said that would happen. The closing time where I grew up was 10:30pm. Yet in the adjoining Sutton Coldfield it was 11:00pm. You would get a crowd of people at 10:40 or thereabouts, walking the 500 metres from the pub that had just closed, to the pub that was going to be open for another twenty minutes.

I think the problem with the pubs was the ‘eat out to help out’ scheme. It was attributed to the spike occurring in the autumn - apparently Johnson himself admitted it may have been responsible. The awful spoons pub by me was pretty packed out each time I walked past.

I suspect that it was Johnson refusing to confirm that the lockdown - or at least restrictions - wouldn’t be continuing into the summer. Basically he doesn’t know, he’d be guessing if he did. Bearing in mind where we currently are, it would be rather foolish - even for him - to give a forecast about what might be happening in six months time.

It’s going to be the autumn at the earliest I reckon. Apparently the fat controller wouldn’t commit to lockdown being over before the summer. A single jab isn’t a vaccination, giving at a maximum 52% protection. It’ll be ages before everyone has had two injections. My parents had their first shot two weeks ago, they had a call today notifying them that their next injection is due early April.

Legally I wouldn’t know, morally I would say yes. When does one company start and another end though? Wouldn’t everything pertaining to this year's festival be under this year's company? Do they sell tickets through an agency or direct? If it’s through ah agency then they’ll be taking a hit too.