tegs07

I think this lack of respect and understanding towards strategic partnership is particularly concerning bearing in mind the geopolitical situation. I had a thread a while back that was attempting to make sense of the vulnerable economic situation that western economies were facing and the rise and alliances being forged by countries like Iran, China, North Korea and Russia. Interesting to see joint military drills being conducted by Iran, Russia and China a couple of days ago. I wonder how team Trumps vision of geopolitics squares up with the goals of other nations? As long standing alliances are weakened (including talks of annexing Canada and Greenland) is the USA losing its grip on its global position based upon wishful thinking and hyperbole?

I read an interesting article comparing the modular approach of SpaceX to the traditional big picture approach of Boeing and it was overwhelmingly in favour of SpaceX in terms of efficiency and progress.

Indeed. People also have short memories. Even when I was growing up there was a limited choice in the shops and products were expensive. People didn’t eat peppers and avocados in winter and purchase of clothes was during the January sales and they were patched up and handed down. Pubs had the choice of a couple of lagers and a couple of ales and restaurants were a little limited. And I am not even that old!

this monkey’s gone to heaven - pixies

The one thing I will say about the Team Trumps master plan is that after Covid the weakness of the current supply chain was exposed. The dependence on single countries for the supply of key commodities was exposed (Germany and Russia) with geopolitical instability. The weakness of having too much of national wealth tied up in other nations assets and currency was exposed (Russia). Long term there is logic behind the madness. Can the pivot be achieved in the chaotic and aggressive manner that it’s being implemented and do the hard pressed US consumers have the stomach to bear the risk?

Leavitt argued the US would become a "manufacturing superpower" Right so that’s the master plan? Good luck with that. Maybe you can force Americans to pay more for things but unless you pay less than China and have the same level of health and safety I doubt you can export to the same levels. So Americans to earn less and pay more sounds like a winner.

Fairly sure tomorrow is the release date for February CPI figures in the USA. Could be interesting. Way too soon to see any real impact from tariffs but if it’s remaining sticky or even rising it will have a big impact on sentiment. Edit: This is the real area of interest for me. I am expecting the usual hatchet job on Powell and if rates are lowered and fiscal policy relaxed when inflation is rising it could get very interesting.

I am still fairly optimistic that Trump has just enough rope…. Edit: Hopefully this folly will be resolved without too much lasting damage and the US will be back on track again.

Well it’s the 51st state according to some. I think Canada will just stop supplying electricity and oil as a warning shot.

Going full scorched earth now. At this rate I can actually see a major recession and full blown stock market crash. Trump is gambling that Canada will just back down and cave in. I don’t think that they will.

Covid seems to be a big accelerant for a whole bunch of conspiracy theorists and ideologies that are very fluid and transient. I can only imagine that many people connected online in various echo chambers reinforcing their beliefs about the nature of capitalism, free speech, elites and the frustrations about a lack of power and a sense of hopelessness. The deeply concerning nature of many that are drawn to this world view is the deeply nihilistic and fatalistic attitude that they share. Another is inherent in their rejection of the “establishment” and its norms is a more complex failure to accept any evidence or “facts” that contradict their claims. The final and in my view the most dangerous element is their inability to accept that there is a huge group of people actively making a living and advancing their own interests. Lying, cheating, manipulating has become an industry that is easy to sell in the digital age. Edit: There are also plenty of people who have messed up their careers and lives using the alt-right and various conspiracy sites as a last chance saloon to make money. David Iyke, Russell Brand etc I would put JD Vance firmly in this space and world of delusional and vengeful digital opportunists stalking the echo chambers for personal gain. Even more concerning he sounds like he actually believes it.

I would not be surprised to find a lot of the instigators of this “transition” are big on gold, are shorting a whole bunch of stocks and are ready to make a massive amount of money.

Crypto is an interesting one for me. Honestly I feel that the days of FIAT are numbered and cash will become a relic. That said a decentralised digital currency that is completely deregulated and open to wild fluctuations and speculation is not really the way forward. I would think a digital currency offering from a central bank is far more likely. As for BTC, Ether and the like. I had a very modest amount. More out of interest and exploring how to trade, convert and use it than expectations of making any money. I think that your most likely correct about the MAGA links. It may well be the mother of all bubbles in the meantime it certainly seems to make North Korean hackers a lot of money.

Allegedly the slump in Tesla share prices is down to radical left lunatics illegally boycotting Musk. OK where to start with this one. Nothing to do with the fact that the share price is completely divorced from the reality of sales figures. Nothing to do with Trump’s own policies which favour fossil fuels and don’t encourage climate friendly alternatives. Nothing to do with tariffs and economic uncertainty. Also when has it been illegal to be an ethical investor or consumer?

It can get very complex though when negotiating these things under certain economic conditions. For another debate.

Or who mock the diligent and motivated as brown nosers or swats. Sometimes our class system has very effective breaks for limiting mobility.

Interesting. I really get why people are aggrieved about the expanding wealth gap. Where I lose sympathy though is when people look for people to blame and even destroy in order to regain a sense of self worth. This is a negative and ugly attitude. I also wonder how much people have bought into an idealised living your best life, technicolour, instant gratification vision of what it means to be an accepted and valued citizen. It seems to me that the sellers of dreams are now upping the ante and offering a complete illusion designed to permanently reduce them to a precarious state of servitude.

What I find most interesting is the choice of the far right as saviours. Deregulation, loosing labour laws, defunding social services, cutting taxes, deporting immigrants, increasing the cost of imports etc All solutions that can definitely deliver economic growth BUT are not designed to solve wealth inequality which is what a large percentage of people voting for them are most aggrieved about. They are also solutions that are somewhat overlapping and can be counterproductive so require careful management and implementation. Again this kind of subtle and calculated approach is not usually the modus operandi of far right bombastic politics which is heavily dependent on charismatic leadership and theatrical hyperbole.

The middle class ones will. Not everyone has this safety net. Also plenty of Gen Z will have kids of their own.

If anyone can wait it out it is the wealthy who have invested in gold, property and have a portfolio designed to cope with economic turbulence. They can then watch the stock market and housing market crash and step in later picking up assets at record lows. Gen Z with little in the way of assets might even find their inheritance lifeline severely depleted. Honestly I think from your comments you have identified many of the problems facing the world but your choice of saviours are the source thinly disguised in a red cap and a catchy slogan. Edit: One of the reasons for assets like property being so expensive is that interest rates have been kept artificially low for decades and fiscal policy was loose allowing stimulus to prevent recession. A big reason is that although recession IMO is a necessity to restore balance in the economy it’s not popular with the electorate. Gen Z have never lived through a full on recession and I honestly don’t think that they have known the crushing misery of a 70s or 80s collapse let alone a 30s depression. If a grinding recession does happen I think they will be woefully underprepared and will massively underestimate the impact.

An alternative perspective is if your country has been put on an economic war path by a transactional bully then someone with a sound understanding of economics who has been in charge of fiscal policy during a financial crisis is the ideal candidate. As for end democracy and build something new. Well let’s see who much economic pain will be tolerated in order to deliver this.

The terms mood music and jawboning are often used. Talking up or down rather than taking action. Interest rates are a blunt tool.

FWIW I think the interesting battle is yet to come. The battle with the FED to cut rates. This is the stimulus team Trump want and need BUT get this wrong when inflation has not been tamed and it potentially gets all kinds of interesting.

I think sentiment in the coming weeks will be interesting. The stock market has already dipped into correction territory. Inflation is very sticky, there will be fall out in consumer confidence following the DOGE sackings and the impact of the loss of USAid farming subsidies. It’s looking highly likely that an expected 4% GDP increase will result in around a -2.5 drop which will result in a technical recession. How far will the consumer go in waiting for the Trump economic Nirvana. Is a cost of living weary nation in it for the long haul? Edit: Q3 was weaker than expected but positive so not a technical recession however a 2.8% gain in Q3 a 2.8 percent projected drop in Q4 is concerning.

The purpose of tariffs is to make your competitors products more expensive and less likely to be bought. The long term aim being that consumers will no longer buy them and choose home grown products instead. In the case of Canada where cross border trade is in the hundreds or billions of dollars this situation could impact the livelihoods of thousands of workers and potentially put many other businesses out of action due to disrupted supply chains. Generally this is not favourable for voters who don’t want to see their elected leaders shrug and let it happen without a fight. Edit: There’s also a perception of injustice going on. Trump claims that the trade deficit with Canada is due to Canada taking advantage of the USA and the economic ineptness of the Biden administration. The trade deficit has been growing over the last decade, BUT when oil is taken out of the equation (the US imports a lot of crude from Canada for refining) then the US actually has a positive balance. It exports more than it imports! The price of oil has risen in recent years largely due to a certain war….