tegs07

brothers on the slide - cyamande

beat surrender - jam

lay lady lay - dylan

Have you tried https://www.stringsdirect.co.uk/parts-c4/bridge-parts-c685 They used to stock/order MusicMan bridges/parts?

Pay is really a small part of most of the industrial action occurring. Terms and conditions are steadily being eroded and an awful lot of people face a lot of uncertainty in their work, with their accommodation, with retirement. The Proletariat have become the Precariat. A certain person who constantly accuses me of supporting the establishment doesn’t realise in essence I agree with his views. It’s how to navigate out of the situation and change course which is the issue. If not handled with extreme caution the economy could quickly collapse. We all had a brief taster of this just a few weeks ago.

The FED plays the music everyone else just dances or trashes their currency.

At a macro level I would totally agree, particularly the part about it being built on sand. That’s the part that particularly worries me, particularly the bond market. I can see the UK and the Eurozone struggling to fulfill their debt repayments as private investors rush to short term US treasuries and UK and European bonds increase their yields to attract investors. For the average worker this is likely to mean their private pension may be at risk depending on how much leverage is involved. Bond yields have been weak for decades and there is all manner of leverage going on to balance the books. On a national level it may involve increasing the retirement age. Central banks may have to increase interest rates at a faster pace to get inflation down quicker and mortgage rates will rise. This impacts investment in equities (stock markets continues to fall) as well as debt repayments. In short the average person will have their two biggest lifelong investments exposed to extreme volatility. Mortgages and pensions.

Yep in Brizzle. I don’t think anyone has ever volunteered to subject themselves to my economic wibbling even with alcohol to numb the pain! Could be a plan after the Christmas carnage. I do think there will be a big correction that will take a few years to recover from. I don’t think it’s post apocalyptic eating road kill with all our possessions in shopping carts, but do think it’s highly likely that standards of living will decline and geopolitical tensions will rise.

It’s the distortions in the markets and colossal debt that dominate what I post. Much of the prosperity western nations have enjoyed is an illusion based upon a whole load of smoke and mirrors made plausible by access to cheap credit and imported deflation. The tide turned.

Im speaking about investors pulling money from the UK not defending energy companies or foreign investment successes. https://www.ftadviser.com/investments/2022/08/05/uk-funds-on-track-to-post-highest-outflows-in-a-decade/ Of particular note are bonds. The UK and the Eurozone are going to have to entice private investors to buy their bonds, bunds etc and it will be a hard sell. Short term US treasuries will be where the money flows.

I’m not arguing that its bad policy or something that is desirable. More that there are no easy answers and sometimes unexpected consequences can kick off a chain reaction that can start to snowball. The UK is fast becoming a pariah for international investors and markets are prone to (extreme) overreaction when they smell blood.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/totalenergies-cut-uk-investment-by-25-after-windfall-tax-2022-12-01/ Harbour Energy https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/top-uk-oil-gas-producer-170000013.html “During a meeting with Jeremy Hunt last week, the leading industry body Offshore Energies UK told the current Chancellor of the Exchequer that a 75% total tax rate “will undermine the ability of energy producing companies to invest in the homegrown oil, gas and wind supplies we need. Without this, we will be less secure and will import more energy – while losing the benefits provided by the domestic industry in terms of taxes paid, jobs supported and investment in the wind and hydrogen projects.”

I have said several times that personally I think wage increases have only a marginal inflationary influence but a strong labour market is definitely something that is at the forefront of central bank policy decisions. As for inflation Im more in the camp that turning off the credit taps, increasing energy costs and massive supply chain disruptions are far more consequential than corporate greed. Corporate greed persisted throughout the low inflationary era of the 1990s and early 2000s.

Total energies have cut investment in UK North Sea oil by 25% and Harbour Energy pulled out of a tender to drill I believe. You can google for full details. I think it’s because it’s not an exact science and no guarantee of money on investment. If when they get lucky they are penalised they get cross and flounce off taking their ball elsewhere. Temperamental divas the lot of them.

When supply is constrained prices go up. I know two of the companies that have paid more in windfall taxes (Harbour Energy & Total Energy) have responded by cutting back on their R&D development in the UK so it’s not as straightforward as you would like. This will reduce energy security in the medium to long term. If worrying about whether people lose their homes or pensions is defending the establishment then sure you have got me.

I think Putin’s war and Xi’s zero covid policy may have something to do with things alongside the billions created via QE during Covid (much of which flowed into assets and equities). A strong labour market and the actions of central banks are not governed by political parties and neither are yield spikes or sovereign debt crises. There are a host of issues that fall way outside of party politics that will threaten the livelihoods of your average worker during the next few years. It’s a time to be debt free, not beholden to rising debt repayment and with a positive balance of payments and sadly the UK is not in great shape. I’m not convinced that in the short to medium term any government can avoid a similar course of action. Longer term there is much that can and should be done. I think people will rightly fight for better wages but I am cautious looking at interest rates rising and bond yields increasing as mortgages and pensions are also massive factors here.

I concur re wages not being a primary causal factor around inflation. I do urge caution in regards to debt levels and interest rates. Bizarrely the labour market in the USA will have as much sway as the labour market in the UK as the FED are playing the fiddle we are all dancing to. In terms of public debt this is something of concern. Borrowing costs are rising exponentially and as seen recently if the markets get spooked bond yields can spike dramatically causing mayhem in pensions, mortgages etc. I bang on about this a bit so excuse repetition but it’s something I have a real interest/concern about.

Did the global corporations wait until 2022 to decide to be greedy? Wage price spiral is potentially inflationary but it’s not a major causal factor. The restriction of cheap credit*, geopolitical factors (war and sanctions) and supply constraints are far more important. In terms of the workforce a strong labour market is a major factor in central bank’s decisions around interest rate rises. It is something a heavily indebted population needs to consider. I don’t think the average person could take interest rates at 5% in the current economic climate. * The unwinding of Quantitative Easing, The start of Quantitative Tightening, the unwinding of the carry trade, increased yields on bonds, currency weakening etc etc

The problem though is that Amazon are a ruthless but unbelievably efficient company. Their investment and innovation in technology, logistics and workflows have allowed them to totally dominate internet shopping. By contrast Royal Mail put bits of cardboard through your letterbox and you need to try and find time to go and collect it. Are Amazon nice people. Probably not. Are they efficient and bang up to date with the needs of modern consumers? I would say they dominate the market for a reason. This technological innovation and investment has not been matched by Royal Mail and one of the greatest companies in British history are losing ground. I support the right of the postal workers to strike but fear it will be another chapter in an ongoing decline.

I guess we really choose a side when we go for the cheapest option when sending a parcel!

I’m not sure there has ever been a period of complete apathy. If there has I have been fortunate to live through it. Despite the odd whinge it has been a golden age historically speaking of relative wealth and global harmony. The economic and geopolitical landscape certainly looks far more rocky and the current industrial unrest is a symptom of the underlying issues that are slowly emerging. For me there have been 3 major chances to pivot away from the current trajectory of rampant debt and economic malaise in the last decade and a half: 1. 2007/2008 banking crisis 2. 2014 invasion of Crimea 3. 2019 Covid pandemic Each was a massive warning shot to change direction economically, politically and socially. Each one was a failed opportunity. The 2022/2023 stagflationary debt crisis is yet another warning. If we don’t invest in our social institutions, our infrastructure, our education and health and redefine what wealth, economic growth and national security really means then I can’t see any outcome other than social and economic decline.

Sort of fixed the alternative is to continue to kick the can down the road with the current system. If chosen I suggest that the end result will either be far left or far right. I don’t see much road left with the current global headwinds. The era of cheap debt and benign global trade and cooperation is nearly over.

I believe India has taken the 5th largest economy spot. The western economies in general are in decline. They are mired in debt and declining confidence in their currencies. It’s now down to the electorate to vote in a high tax and spend government and decide what kind of growth and lifestyle changes are required for sustainable development. The alternative is a blame culture and the rise of far right politics.