Becoming Extinct? - Valves and Neodymium

[cytania]

Ok, so valves have been old technology for decades but how likely is it they'll keep being produced? Sourcing from Russia can't go on forever and apparently quality is down hence the need for cryo treatment. Somehow the hi-fi and guitar niche markets don't seem enough to support a valve industry at realistic prices.

Second is from the Barefaced site [url="http://barefacedbass.com/technical-information/the-neodymium-issue.htm"]here[/url] "bass cabs containing loudspeakers with neodymium magnets may become more expensive and may even cease to be produced." What Alex appears to be saying is that other industries will price driver makers out of using Neodymium.

Anyone reckon doom beckons for either of these two? Or is it just a case paying scalpers prices?

[umph]

cryo treatment is snake oil.

theres been a resurgance in valve popularity lately so i think they'll be sticking round for a while yet. Can't imagine neo will be vanishing either

[Machines]

I can't see valves going anywhere - they're still cheap to produce and don't require any hard to source materials. Neodymium on the other hand does seem to be worse off - it's more the price of material than it's scarcity. I read that China seem to be limiting supply purposely to drive up prices.

[EBS_freak]

[quote name='umph' timestamp='1326195986' post='1493512']
cryo treatment is snake oil.
[/quote]

agreed.

[jackers]

[quote name='Machines' timestamp='1326197615' post='1493545']
Neodymium on the other hand does seem to be worse off - it's more the price of material than it's scarcity. I read that China seem to be limiting supply purposely to drive up prices.
[/quote]

This is true. China have almost all of the worlds supply of rare-earth metals, so they have a monopoly on neodymium, among other things.

[MoonBassAlpha]

[quote name='jackers' timestamp='1326198111' post='1493560']
This is true. China have almost all of the worlds supply of rare-earth metals, so they have a monopoly on neodymium, among other things.
[/quote]
Not quite true - the US does have supplies but stopped producing when it became uneconomic to compete with China. They will resume production when its economic to do so. Rare earth metals are not as rare as the name would suggest.

[jackers]

[quote name='MoonBassAlpha' timestamp='1326198499' post='1493570']
Not quite true - the US does have supplies but stopped producing when it became uneconomic to compete with China. They will resume production when its economic to do so. Rare earth metals are not as rare as the name would suggest.
[/quote]

Fair enough. I was commenting from my knowledge of trying to order a few rare-earths for my research, they are pretty much impossible to get from anywhere except china, which can take months, lol.

[shizznit]

Valve amps will always be popular. I think we went through a phase for 10yrs where 'digital was best' because of amp simulation technology, recording software and getting more bang for your buck. However, most recording engineers that I have worked with recently will insist on using valve amps, compressors, mixing desks etc.. only for the quality of tone. So, valve appeal is definately coming back again and the market will continue to survive.

Neo cabs, unfortunately, may be a thing of the past in the coming years and thats a shame, but I am sure someone will have a light bulb moment and come up with an alternative.

[razze06]

[quote name='MoonBassAlpha' timestamp='1326198499' post='1493570']
Not quite true - the US does have supplies but stopped producing when it became uneconomic to compete with China. They will resume production when its economic to do so. Rare earth metals are not as rare as the name would suggest.
[/quote]

I understand that the real difference is that China is willing to extract the metals using polluting and/or dangerous techniques, which are illegal in the US and most of the rest of the world. The results is the same, neodymium and other rare earths at top prices!

[Bill Fitzmaurice]

[quote name='jackers' timestamp='1326198111' post='1493560']
This is true. China have almost all of the worlds supply of rare-earth metals, so they have a monopoly on neodymium,
[/quote]Rare earths aren't rare at all, and most of the world's supply is outside of China. It's only rare earth mining and manufacturing that's concentrated mainly in China, a situation that is changing by the day. The current neo shortage won't last. Tubes OTOH are going away, it's just a matter of time. Producing them without destroying the environment is just too expensive, and when the Russians and Chinese finally wake up, smell the coffee and institute safe manufacturing regulations tubes will be history.

[JTUK]

[quote name='Bill Fitzmaurice' timestamp='1326205186' post='1493747']
Rare earths aren't rare at all, and most of the world's supply is outside of China. It's only rare earth mining and manufacturing that's concentrated mainly in China, a situation that is changing by the day. The current neo shortage won't last. Tubes OTOH are going away, it's just a matter of time. Producing them without destroying the environment is just too expensive, and when the Russians and Chinese finally wake up, smell the coffee and institute safe manufacturing regulations tubes will be history.
[/quote]

And so might their competitiveness be... so I am not sure they will rush to do that.

China's appeal...as far the people I know who deal with it are concerned, is almost entirely cost related.

[Mr. Foxen]

Valves involve rare earth metals, not in as big lumps as speakers, and not neo, but there is all sorts of funny things in there.

[flyfisher]

I can't see valves disappearing unless demand really does disappear. There's always someone or some small company willing to make specialised stuff. That's why we can still ride on steam trains or buy a horse drawn cart or buy vinyl recordings.

Having said that, all these things still exist in living memory. It'll be interesting to know what will happen in another,say, 3-4 generations when there will be no living memory and such things will only be known about from the history books. Even then, I dare say there will be some people still interested in them. I believe there are musicians that play ancient instruments, even make them from scratch, though that's hardly the same thing as being semi-mainstream.

[chris_b]

[size=4]We won't need neo speakers when they and the cabs are made of Graphene and who needs valves anyway. [/size]

[bigjohn]

I'm enjoying my valve / neo rig. Straddling two golden ages like a colossus

But, yeah, Valves will one day be a thing of the past, unless someone works out how to make them without the pollution that causes. Can't really get away from that. And new valves just aren't as good as the old ones.

Neodymium is slightly different isn't it? The shortage is partly due to it increased demand for other stuff it's used in isn't it? Lasers and other magnets, mobiles etc. This probably won't be the case forever. Question will be then if it's been alternatively replaced in the speaker production market by the time there's demand enough to use again.

Edited January 10, 2012 by bigjohn

[icastle]

Like everyone else, I have no crystal ball but, looking at history, some trends emerge.

Speakers worked long before Neodymium appeared as a lightweight replacement for traditionaly used materials.
If it had never been used in speakers it would have had zero impact in the context of our concerns.
What impact would it have on us as musicians if it disappeared from speaker manufacture forever?
I'd say nothing more than a lucrative SH market for neo cabs, an increase in weight and the extinction of some high end kit that had a limited market due to cost in the first place.

Valves have been around in one form or another for some 200 years now and adoption reached it's peak in the early/mid 1960's when the first, rather crude by todays standards, transistors started to appear in commercially available devices.
Even UK valve stalwarts Mullard were investing heavily in transistor development.
To put that timeline in perspective, the late bronze age only lasted for around 300 years before being overtaken by the iron age - perhaps we've reached that point with valves.
I personally think that some valves will remain for a few decades yet, but the prices are going to rocket.

[Mog]

The Valve thing has been knocking around since at least I started playing roughly 16 years ago. I dont believe it for a second.

Neo stocks are dwindling worldwide but theres plenty left in Canada, Russia, China and the South Pacific.
Theres some new base metal magnets and alloy magnets that are being researched for scientific use which makes Neo look like 1st gen stuff but these are about 10 years away from consumer use.

TBH I really dont care what type of Magnet is in the speaker cab.

[Bill Fitzmaurice]

[quote name='flyfisher' timestamp='1326207372' post='1493798']
I can't see valves disappearing unless demand really does disappear.
[/quote]Demand already has disappeared. The music industry alone uses tubes, and it's a very small industry in the grand scope. The largest consumer of tubes was the military, and the reason former Eastern Bloc countries continued to produce tubes long after the West stopped was that their militaries still employed them. Once all the Soviet era military hardware using tubes has been retired so will the tube, as few musicians would be willing to pay the 50 pounds each that a 12AX7 will eventually go for. Eventually the tube will go the way of photographic film.

Edited January 10, 2012 by Bill Fitzmaurice

[Happy Jack]

So start stocking up now, then?

There are fortunes to be made here chaps ...

[BB2000]

[quote name='Bill Fitzmaurice' timestamp='1326214893' post='1493941']
Demand already has disappeared. The music industry alone uses tubes, and it's a very small industry in the grand scope. The largest consumer of tubes was the military, and the reason former Eastern Bloc countries continued to produce tubes long after the West stopped was that their militaries still employed them. Once all the Soviet era military hardware using tubes has been retired so will the tube, as few musicians would be willing to pay the 50 pounds each that a 12AX7 will eventually go for. Eventually the tube will go the way of photographic film.
[/quote]

Valves are used in current NATO and US defence equipment, and are still designed in to new equipment. I would think the same applies to China.

[Machines]

A reasonable factor in the military using valves still is they are much more resilient to EMP than solid state is.

[flyfisher]

[quote name='Bill Fitzmaurice' timestamp='1326214893' post='1493941']
Demand already has disappeared. The music industry alone uses tubes . . . .
[/quote]
I thought the RF industry still used valves for high power transmitters. OK, not an interchangeable component but surely the manufacturing process would be similar?

[quote name='Bill Fitzmaurice' timestamp='1326214893' post='1493941']
Once all the Soviet era military hardware using tubes has been retired so will the tube, as few musicians would be willing to pay the 50 pounds each that a 12AX7 will eventually go for. Eventually the tube will go the way of photographic film.
[/quote]
In a crazy world where some people happily pay 100s for simple interconnect cables and loads more for other 'exotic' stuff, I'd say that £50 for valve would not put many people off. I take your basic point but reckon the price point would have to be much, much higher - probably at least ten-fold to completely kill them off.

[4 Strings]

All that will happen is the continuance of the reduction of range of valves available. Even in music there is enough of a market to keep them going (Hartke 2500 are still among the best selling bass amps and they're punched out in the thousands). Seems hard to buy an amp without at least one valve nowadays. May end up being one of only 3-4 types available though.

[icastle]

[quote name='flyfisher' timestamp='1326216956' post='1493984']
I thought the RF industry still used valves for high power transmitters.
[/quote]

Up to a point yes.
However, valve usage is a diminishing market within mainstream comms (and it really needs to be 'mainstream' to make it financially viable to produce valves) as there has been a shift from 'blanket coverage' to cellular topology and narrow bandwidth digital transmission.

As an example of how radio transmission has moved on a notch, for those readers who are familiar with all those fields of transmission towers by the Rugby M1 junction - they're just leftovers, they don't do a thing anymore.

As others have already said, I think valves will continue to be made but the prices will rise significantly - not something that the military would care hugely about, but would certainly impact the musician usage of them.

I would also expect to see an 'aftermarket' business or two appear; making solid state devices with a standard valve bases for direct replacement of commonly used music valves...

[Count Bassy]

I think some here said in another thread, some time ago, that had Neo not been available then ceramic magnets would have been developed to meet almost the same performance by now anyway.

An far as I'm aware the biggest application of Neodymium is in electric servo motors, and with electric cars bound to happen the demand is not going to drop, unless superseded by something else.