investment Bass purchase

[iconic]

[quote name='EMG456' timestamp='1370955256' post='2107874']
I just used an historic inflation calculator on two prices that I kind of remember from the mid seventies.

There are probably others out there for different countries - this one uses UK inflation rates.

http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/bills/article-1633409/Historic-inflation-calculator-value-money-changed-1900.html

I was choosing between a Fender and a Rick and buying new - Fender was priced about £300 and Rick £400. Plugging those prices in concludes that they would now cost £2133 for the Fender or £2844 for the Rick.

From this admittedly unrepresentative and small sample we can conclude that buying a bass as an "investment" is a complete waste of time - you're unlikely to get back even the equivalent value in the future let alone make a profit.

Occasionally some buck the trend - like the aforementioned Wals - £800 new in 1984 - equivalent value today £2180 so you would stand a chance of a profit there if you could find a buyer.

If you buy cheaply, it can be different story so the '61 Precision I bought for £125 in 1978 would have cost me the equivalent of £608 today! Then again, I sold it for £450 in 1984 - ho hum.

Buy them to play, not to invest.

Cheers

Ed
[/quote]

interesting post....thanks for doing mathes...it confirms what i suspected.

[throwoff]

I toy with investment instruments from time to time but generally stick to quick flips.

Buy too cheap and sell at normal price.

[thodrik]

[quote name='JTUK' timestamp='1370774449' post='2105282']

I think the main reason '70's basses are becoming collector-ish is because 60's are so hard to get.
[/quote]

I think so. I got my 1978/9 (not exactly dated it) Precision for less than £400 12-13 years ago. Now it would probably be worth around £1000, despite it being played and gigged regularly by me over the last 13 years. Its madness.

To the OP, I wouldn't buy a bass just 'as an investment'. As soon as I start thinking 'investment', I start making allowances for the 'intricacies' of older Fenders which I would consider 'faults' on any other bass. Thats why after spending 6 years looking for a comparable Jazz bass for my Precision, I ended up buying a Sadowsky Metro.

[Mr. Foxen]

Kind of like diamonds, vintage instruments are not rare, but are stockpiled in warehouses by large investors to maintain value. There are plenty of ways to put your money in things totally subject to the whim of large investors.

[Chiliwailer]

[quote name='clashcityrocker' timestamp='1370768951' post='2105201']
No no,this isn't an excuse to my misses to buy more basses,no really! I went to my local music shop for a perve yesterday,and was surprised to see a 77 jazz bass in sunburst,on a private sale. Firstly Iv always loved the idea of owning an old fender and as my username suggests,I think that was a great year for music (unfortunately 10 Years before I was born). It got me thinking,is it wise to buy it as an investment,keep it for years,hopefully knowing that it is only increasing in money. I guess it's down to condition etc,it's up for 1395 but I reckon there is room for haggling. The idea is buy it for as close to 1k as possible then sell it in 15 years for 10k ;-)
[/quote]

It's game over for making money on old basses now. The market went beserk and only the real old high quality, rare and all original stuff still holds value. But that's not to say that prices will continue to rise at the old rate even for those special ones. Late 70's Fenders carry a terrible reputation so can't go up too much, plus there are so many around. That said, there were some cool players basses from that era and if you like the bass, go for it all. You can always get your money back and perhaps a couple quid on top too if you're lucky.

Edited June 11, 2013 by Chiliwailer

[yorks5stringer]

[quote name='clauster' timestamp='1370774691' post='2105284']
If you really want to buy a bass as an investment, look for basses that are under-valued at the moment.

Warwick's are where my money would be going at the moment, especially the old German made Corvette Std's. These are selling used for less than the Rockbass equivalent is new. Buy, wait for them to be become popular again and cash in.
[/quote]
My money's on those Flea Basses then...!

[gjones]

If the price of a bass goes up with inflation then it's probably a better investment than putting your money in the bank these days (as bank interest on savings is so low).

[BetaFunk]

[quote name='Chiliwailer' timestamp='1370983820' post='2108377']
Late 70's Fenders carry a terrible reputation so can't go up too much, plus there are so many around.
[/quote]
All we need to do is convince all the owners and we're onto a winner but somehow i don't think we're going to convince either them or the buyers who seem to be queueing up to buy these basses for considerably more than they were when new.

[Chiliwailer]

[quote name='yorks5stringer' timestamp='1370989593' post='2108474']

My money's on those Flea Basses then...!
[/quote]


I like where you're coming from, problem is its a specialist bass that's really for fans only. Limited edition and signature stuff has to have a huge customer base to go up rapidly in value, very very rare indeed in that particular market.

And I'm not just saying that because I'd like to buy a Flea Bass, cash waiting but no decent ones are for sale right now!

[wateroftyne]

Playing money in the bank isn't as much fun as playing a bass.

[Rick's Fine '52]

[quote name='Chiliwailer' timestamp='1370983820' post='2108377']
It's game over for making money on old basses now. The market went beserk and only the real old high quality, rare and all original stuff still holds value. But that's not to say that prices will continue to rise at the old rate even for those special ones. Late 70's Fenders carry a terrible reputation so can't go up too much, plus there are so many around. That said, there were some cool players basses from that era and if you like the bass, go for it all. You can always get your money back and perhaps a couple quid on top too if you're lucky.
[/quote]

Disagree.

Even 5 years ago, 70's fenders were available for just over a grand for an original finish one in reasonable nick, its not unusual to see a nice '73 sunburst Jazz available now for £2500+. There's one available now for £3200!!

This is because 50's stuff has gone through the roof, 60's stuff is now going for £5k+, and double that on early J's, therefore those wanting a vintage Fender, will go to the best within their budget, this pushes up the price of 70's instruments accordingly. The reputation alone shouldnt be a big consideration anyway, sure, there are some heavy examples out there, but there are also some really nice examples, so i would always advise buying on inspection, having played it, and not buying blind.

As has been mentioned before, originality is everything though when it comes to 'investment', I'd advise paying a little more to get one that's 'right'. I know many players/collectors who simply wouldnt entertain a refin'd bass/guitar for example. But you shouldn't buy an instrument solely for this reason, buy it because you love it, it plays great, sounds gorgeous, and turns you on, if it also happens to be rare, original, and desirable, then you get to tick all the boxes.

[Dingus]

[quote name='Rick's Fine '52' timestamp='1371026697' post='2108684']
Disagree.

Even 5 years ago, 70's fenders were available for just over a grand for an original finish one in reasonable nick, its not unusual to see a nice '73 sunburst Jazz available now for £2500+. There's one available now for £3200!!

This is because 50's stuff has gone through the roof, 60's stuff is now going for £5k+, and double that on early J's, therefore those wanting a vintage Fender, will go to the best within their budget, this pushes up the price of 70's instruments accordingly. The reputation alone shouldnt be a big consideration anyway, sure, there are some heavy examples out there, but there are also some really nice examples, so i would always advise buying on inspection, having played it, and not buying blind.

As has been mentioned before, originality is everything though when it comes to 'investment', I'd advise paying a little more to get one that's 'right'. I know many players/collectors who simply wouldnt entertain a refin'd bass/guitar for example. But you shouldn't buy an instrument solely for this reason, buy it because you love it, it plays great, sounds gorgeous, and turns you on, if it also happens to be rare, original, and desirable, then you get to tick all the boxes.
[/quote]

I know for certain that in America , which is ultimately where the market value is decided because that's where the vast majority of examples are located , the prices of vintage guitars have fallen dramatically in the last six or seven years . Even vintage guitar dealers are acknowledging that in the early 2000's instruments were trading for silly money , far more than they were really worth . However , quite interestingly , the reduction in prices lately has been evident at the higher end of the market , so a 1959 Strat in mint condition will probably cost you less than ten years ago but a 1970's Jazz Bass with some wear and tear will still be an expensive proposition for what it is . Maybe if the market hadn't crashed then '70's stuff would be selling at even dafter prices now . I expect that that is largely due to the fact that 1970's stuff is still just within the realms of affordability for most people who are serious enthusiasts - it costs about the same as a high quality new instrument - and so as long as it maintains that relationship with peoples real spending power , and as long they stay in vogue , it will continue to sell at inflated prices .

Edited June 12, 2013 by Dingus

[Rick's Fine '52]

[quote name='Dingus' timestamp='1371037818' post='2108895']
I know for certain that in America , which is ultimately where the market value is decided because that's where the vast majority of examples are located , the prices of vintage guitars have fallen dramatically in the last six or seven years . Even vintage guitar dealers are acknowledging that in the early 2000's instruments were trading for silly money , far more than they were really worth . However , quite interestingly , the reduction in prices lately has been evident at the higher end of the market , so a 1959 Strat in mint condition will probably cost you less than ten years ago but a 1970's Jazz Bass with some wear and tear will still be an expensive proposition for what it is . Maybe if the market hadn't crashed then '70's stuff would be selling at even dafter prices now . I expect that that is largely due to the fact that 1970's stuff is still just within the realms of affordability for most people who are serious enthusiasts - it costs about the same as a high quality new instrument - and so as long as it maintains that relationship with peoples real spending power , and as long they stay in vogue , it will continue to sell at inflated prices .
[/quote]

This is true, certainly with very high end guitars, I remember '59 LP's going for half a million dollars, they can now be bought for around £150k, and a '54 Strat is possibly less than it was 10-15 years ago (relatively at least), when things went crazy for about 5 years.
In my experience, that has [i]never[/i] happened with basses though. Firstly, basses have never been in the $50k+ bracket, let alone $500k+ bracket. I havent seen the price of vintage basses drop at all over the last 20 years. For example, a stack knob jazz has continued to increase steadily over the last 15 years, and has gone even more so in the last 3 years. I remember seeing '69 Tele basses 5 years ago for £1200, because they weren't fashionable, or they weren't a P, or a J. Now they are £3k because its an affordable vintage bass alternative.

Inflated prices?, don't buy that comment, things are always worth whatever someone is willing to pay, at any given moment in time. Nothing inflated about it. We've all seen a high end instrument advertised at big money, with seemingly no interest for 4 months, then suddenly it sells, people will always want the top gear, its just the higher up the chain you go, there's less people in that market, so it may take a little longer, or they may have gear to sell themselves first to fund it. [i]Your[/i] opinion of an 'inflated' price, is probably someone else's 'I must have that at any price because i've waited 10 years to find one and I'm not gonna miss it'.

[BigRedX]

So Rick, do you think that the value of late 70s Fenders will fall once 80s Fenders become regarded as "vintage" and therefore collectable, or will the fact that they are older always trump the fact that the (slightly) newer ones are superior instruments as regards construction and playability?

[Dingus]

[quote name='Rick's Fine '52' timestamp='1371038740' post='2108919']
This is true, certainly with very high end guitars, I remember '59 LP's going for half a million dollars, they can now be bought for around £150k, and a '54 Strat is possibly less than it was 10-15 years ago (relatively at least), when things went crazy for about 5 years.
In my experience, that has [i]never[/i] happened with basses though. Firstly, basses have never been in the $50k+ bracket, let alone $500k+ bracket. I havent seen the price of vintage basses drop at all over the last 20 years. For example, a stack knob jazz has continued to increase steadily over the last 15 years, and has gone even more so in the last 3 years. I remember seeing '69 Tele basses 5 years ago for £1200, because they weren't fashionable, or they weren't a P, or a J. Now they are £3k because its an affordable vintage bass alternative.

Inflated prices?, don't buy that comment, things are always worth whatever someone is willing to pay, at any given moment in time. Nothing inflated about it. We've all seen a high end instrument advertised at big money, with seemingly no interest for 4 months, then suddenly it sells, people will always want the top gear, its just the higher up the chain you go, there's less people in that market, so it may take a little longer, or they may have gear to sell themselves first to fund it. [i]Your[/i] opinion of an 'inflated' price, is probably someone else's 'I must have that at any price because i've waited 10 years to find one and I'm not gonna miss it'.
[/quote]

I agree with you , Rick , that the market dictates prices and so things are ultimately worth what people will pay for them subject to the laws of supply and demand , and said exactly that in my earlier post . I descibe particulaly mid to late Seventies Fender basses as being inflated in price because of the dramatic increase in that market price in recent years . My own opinion is that these basses are chronically overpriced considering their generally poor quality as iinstruments in many or even most cases , but people pay their money and take their choice , and good luck to all parties concerned . If someone has one to sell , I am all in favour of whoever it is getting as much as they possibly can for it , but I certainly wouldn't buy one myself in any forseeable circumstances .

[chris_b]

Go ahead and buy a 70's Fender, but only if you have realistic expectations.

Over time it will outpace ISA's and other forms of "no risk" saving, but to expect it to reach £15K is like expecting to win in a casino.

Give yourself the best chance by getting a custom colour, one that is 100% original with the least amount of wear and an original case (+ case candy).

[Happy Jack]

Your biggest decision, however, will be whether or not to play it.

I have a few "investment basses", bought with money which others would probably have put in a pension fund. It's a conscious decision, not a whim, and it revolves around the fact that the money was the fruit of my hard work (and the unbelievable amount of sh*t I have to put up with), and I want to enjoy that fruit rather than wait for a monthly statement!

By gigging a 1957 Precision I am risking expensive damage or even complete loss. It's a risk I have decided to take. YMMV.

Incidentally, never forget the easiest way to make a small fortune.

[Rick's Fine '52]

[quote name='Dingus' timestamp='1371040299' post='2108962']
I agree with you , Rick , that the market dictates prices and so things are ultimately worth what people will pay for them subject to the laws of supply and demand , and said exactly that in my earlier post . I descibe particulaly mid to late Seventies Fender basses as being inflated in price because of the dramatic increase in that market price in recent years . My own opinion is that these basses are chronically overpriced considering their generally poor quality as iinstruments in many or even most cases , but people pay their money and take their choice , and good luck to all parties concerned . If someone has one to sell , I am all in favour of whoever it is getting as much as they possibly can for it , but I certainly wouldn't buy one myself in any forseeable circumstances .
[/quote]

Don't disagree, i personally wouldnt pay £2500 for a late 70's Fender, because i don't want one, and think there are better basses out there for that money, both in playability, and also from an investment perspective. But, if I'd always dreamed of owning a vintage Fender Jazz, and now found myself in a position to buy one, for whatever the reason, and had a budget of £2500, then I would want the best bang for my buck. At the present time, that would be a really nice example of a mid 70's Jazz. if they find a nice one, then its still a good buy. Are there better basses out there for that money?, maybe, but will they scratch the itch you've had to own an old Fender?, No.

[Rick's Fine '52]

[quote name='BigRedX' timestamp='1371039663' post='2108941']
So Rick, do you think that the value of late 70s Fenders will fall once 80s Fenders become regarded as "vintage" and therefore collectable, or will the fact that they are older always trump the fact that the (slightly) newer ones are superior instruments as regards construction and playability?
[/quote]

Depends what you mean by 80's Fenders i guess. Many collectors use decals to 'date' an instrument. i know someone who won't buy a bass with the serial number on the headstock, as he says they're 'new', so anything post '76 is out. You could say the same about the S8****8 serials, going into 1980, and anything after that. I think the Fullerton reissues from 1982/3 will be the future collectable, because they are vintage correct, quite limited, sought after, and the guitars command big prices already. I don't think 80's basses will ever overtake 70's with regards to price though, never. Those Dan Smith era basses with the truss rod adjuster at the headstock and that awful decal, just don't look 'vintage',, and weren't supposed to, but thats what people want when buying a fender bass, so no, i dont think 80's basses will ever overtake 70's ones, not even the first Fullertons IMO.

[Gust0o]

[quote name='Chiliwailer' timestamp='1370983820' post='2108377']
It's game over for making money on old basses now. The market went beserk and only the real old high quality, rare and all original stuff still holds value. But that's not to say that prices will continue to rise at the old rate even for those special ones. Late 70's Fenders carry a terrible reputation so can't go up too much, plus there are so many around. That said, there were some cool players basses from that era and if you like the bass, go for it all. You can always get your money back and perhaps a couple quid on top too if you're lucky.
[/quote]

I think you can still make your money. It just depends on when you want to make your money, and how much, that decides what course of investment you could pursue.

[Dingus]

[quote name='Rick's Fine '52' timestamp='1371047140' post='2109063']
Don't disagree, i personally wouldnt pay £2500 for a late 70's Fender, because i don't want one, and think there are better basses out there for that money, both in playability, and also from an investment perspective. But, if I'd always dreamed of owning a vintage Fender Jazz, and now found myself in a position to buy one, for whatever the reason, and had a budget of £2500, then I would want the best bang for my buck. At the present time, that would be a really nice example of a mid 70's Jazz. if they find a nice one, then its still a good buy. Are there better basses out there for that money?, maybe, but will they scratch the itch you've had to own an old Fender?, No.
[/quote]

It's interesting to think that the vintage guitar market came into being at the end of the 1960's and really got going in the 1970's because players were dissatisfied with what the major American guitar makers were producing and hankered for the older models . It just seems a little paradioxical to me that people are now hankering for instruments that were the exact ones that supposedly discerning players were rejecting at the time . I have no axe to grind with people who like to buy vintage - I spend plenty of time oggling vintage basses on the internet myself and if I win the lottery my house will be full of them - and I can certainly see the appeal of Fenders up to 1973 , but in the case of mid to late Seventies Fenders it's like people getting romantic over an Austin Allegro as a classic car , i.e it was classically awful at the time and won't have improved with age .

Edited June 12, 2013 by Dingus

[chris_b]

[quote name='Dingus' timestamp='1371048256' post='2109088']
....It just seems a little paradioxical to me that people are now hankering for instruments that were the exact ones that supposedly discerning players were rejecting at the time....
[/quote]

Players in the 70's weren't rejecting Fender basses. They were still better than the competition.

But many did recognise that the quality had dropped after the CBS take over.

[Chiliwailer]

[quote name='Gust0o' timestamp='1371047584' post='2109073']
I think you can still make your money. It just depends on when you want to make your money, and how much, that decides what course of investment you could pursue.
[/quote]
[quote name='Rick's Fine '52' timestamp='1371026697' post='2108684']
Disagree.

Even 5 years ago, 70's fenders were available for just over a grand for an original finish one in reasonable nick, its not unusual to see a nice '73 sunburst Jazz available now for £2500+. There's one available now for £3200!!

This is because 50's stuff has gone through the roof, 60's stuff is now going for £5k+, and double that on early J's, therefore those wanting a vintage Fender, will go to the best within their budget, this pushes up the price of 70's instruments accordingly. The reputation alone shouldnt be a big consideration anyway, sure, there are some heavy examples out there, but there are also some really nice examples, so i would always advise buying on inspection, having played it, and not buying blind.
[/quote]

The original post talked about an investment and I quote 'The idea is buy it for as close to 1k as possible then sell it in 15 years for 10k ;-)

In 1999 I worked in Rose Morris in Denmark Street and sold a 58 P Bass for £3200.; I sold one for £7000 10 years later in another shop.
In 2000 I worked in Two-5 in Denmark Street and sold a 57 Strat for £5,000 which I though was super expensive then. In 2008 NKR guitars sold one for £25,000 when I was working there.
In 2006 when I worked in Regent Sounds in Denmark Street I sold a 1960 Jazz Bass for £10,000. In 2008 the exact same bass was sold in NKR guitars for £18000.

Now those are what I call investments, but those margins are most likely to never be repeated again, guitars and huge margins have had their day.

Saying that 70's stuff will go up accordingly is bizarre, did 70's stuff increase that much too, answer is no. The build quality is poorer, there are way more out there and they are not as desirable to collectors, and unfortunately collectors push up prices. You can still buy one for a grand if you look hard enough, you can still find a joker selling one at £3200. The market is so false now due to people misunderstanding why the right stuff goes up in value.

Everything goes up though, so has late 70's gear. Petrol goes up, cans of beans etc. I cant believe a 60'sRI Jazz Bass is over £1700 these days, wtf?!!!

People price vintage gear at silly prices, not always prices to sell. They hit and hope, because people have bought into a myth that may earn a few quid more than a crappy 2.5% ISA, but won't be what the original poster requested.

Edited June 12, 2013 by Chiliwailer

[Dingus]

On the wider subject of basses as investments , at least you do get some return on your money if you put your cash into decent quality gear . If your hobby is computers or hifi or going to lapdancing clubs , on the whole you will never see a penny back on the money you spend , but if you spend one or two thousand quid on a bass , if you look after it then in most circumstances you can get back a big chunk of that even after several years .

[BigRedX]

But a bass as an investment only realises its potential when you sell it. Until then its just a bass. And if you can't sell it for more than you paid for it taking into account inflation, then it's not an investment at all.