scrumpymike Posted November 2, 2020 Author Posted November 2, 2020 4 hours ago, basstone said: An effective vaccine is going to be the only realistic game changer. News on that front seems to have gone quiet recently but there are a few options in major trials I believe. It's going to be a tough winter all round but fingers crossed for spring next year maybe? Latest forecast/prediction/target/guesstimate/lie (delete as appropriate) from top gov't adviser (!?) over the weekend was that everyone over 50 will have been vaccinated by Easter - hopefully that's 2021! 2 Quote
Chienmortbb Posted November 2, 2020 Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, scrumpymike said: Latest forecast/prediction/target/guesstimate/lie (delete as appropriate) from top gov't adviser (!?) over the weekend was that everyone over 50 will have been vaccinated by Easter - hopefully that's 2021! Trouble is that was for MMR. 1 Quote
Phil Starr Posted November 2, 2020 Posted November 2, 2020 7 hours ago, basstone said: An effective vaccine is going to be the only realistic game changer. News on that front seems to have gone quiet recently but there are a few options in major trials I believe. It's going to be a tough winter all round but fingers crossed for spring next year maybe? There are 9 phase three trials going on at the moment which will all have results coming in during Dec. They may not be perfect but they look so far to be safe and at least reasonably effective. So long as they are safe and deployment is well organised then next year could be a whole lot easier. If only 50% of us get high levels of resistance to the disease then the R rate could be halved. Expect key workers and young people (who are the main spreaders of the virus) to be treated first. Geriatric bassists may have to wait a few months Having been told I was alarmist and mistaken back in February I'm now cautiously optimistic. I don't think it will be over by spring but it should be looking a little more hopeful. I can't wait to see you all probably later next year. 1 Quote
yorks5stringer Posted November 2, 2020 Posted November 2, 2020 "Effective Vaccine, World-beating Track and Trace, Oven Ready Deal" : please excuse my scepticism! Quote
Woodinblack Posted November 2, 2020 Posted November 2, 2020 1 hour ago, yorks5stringer said: "Effective Vaccine, World-beating Track and Trace, Oven Ready Deal" : please excuse my scepticism! Well that is slightly different as the issuer of those proclamations actually knew they were lies when they said them! 1 Quote
Phil Starr Posted November 3, 2020 Posted November 3, 2020 I'm a scientist, nothing is certain here but the trials are genuine, I've been tracking them for a while and there's been some recent press work from Jeremy Farrar of the Wellcome Foundation. I think there is a genuine possibility of a route out of this based upon vaccination. I think there is some cause for hope of an end game. The politicians may well be failing to understand what is happening and the media are certainly misreporting but there is plenty of genuine science going on. Always be a sceptic but having called this one from the start I'm starting to have some optimism. My feeling Keith is that there is a better than 50% we will be able to discuss this over Mrs Scrumpy's food sometime later this year. I'm not saying when though. 2 Quote
yorks5stringer Posted November 3, 2020 Posted November 3, 2020 34 minutes ago, Phil Starr said: I'm a scientist, nothing is certain here but the trials are genuine, I've been tracking them for a while and there's been some recent press work from Jeremy Farrar of the Wellcome Foundation. I think there is a genuine possibility of a route out of this based upon vaccination. I think there is some cause for hope of an end game. The politicians may well be failing to understand what is happening and the media are certainly misreporting but there is plenty of genuine science going on. Always be a sceptic but having called this one from the start I'm starting to have some optimism. My feeling Keith is that there is a better than 50% we will be able to discuss this over Mrs Scrumpy's food sometime later this year. I'm not saying when though. Oh goody, have just the 2 of us got an invite to Scrumpymikes house for Sunday lunch? Shhh, don't tell the others, they'll only be jealous..... On a more serious note, vaccination does depend on everyone ( OK more or less) actually being vaccinated....... 1 Quote
scrumpymike Posted November 3, 2020 Author Posted November 3, 2020 19 hours ago, Phil Starr said: There are 9 phase three trials going on at the moment which will all have results coming in during Dec. They may not be perfect but they look so far to be safe and at least reasonably effective. So long as they are safe and deployment is well organised then next year could be a whole lot easier. If only 50% of us get high levels of resistance to the disease then the R rate could be halved. Expect key workers and young people (who are the main spreaders of the virus) to be treated first. Geriatric bassists may have to wait a few months Having been told I was alarmist and mistaken back in February I'm now cautiously optimistic. I don't think it will be over by spring but it should be looking a little more hopeful. I can't wait to see you all probably later next year. Thanks for your insightful words Phil. 1 Quote
Stub Mandrel Posted November 5, 2020 Posted November 5, 2020 On 03/11/2020 at 13:14, Phil Starr said: My feeling Keith is that there is a better than 50% we will be able to discuss this over Mrs Scrumpy's food sometime later this year. I'm not saying when though. They'd better get started if they are going to approve, produce, distribute and dose peoplewith a vaccine and allow a week or two for it to achieve an immune reaction... Quote
Richard R Posted November 5, 2020 Posted November 5, 2020 On 03/11/2020 at 14:10, scrumpymike said: Geriatric bassists may have to wait a few months Can't we claim to be key workers? Not always the right key in all cases mind you.. On 03/11/2020 at 14:10, scrumpymike said: Thanks for your insightful words Phil. Seconded! 1 1 Quote
Chienmortbb Posted November 5, 2020 Posted November 5, 2020 (edited) The Oxford vaccine is due to reveal its phase 3 trial results in December. Fingers crossed. Edited November 5, 2020 by Chienmortbb 1 Quote
Frank Blank Posted November 5, 2020 Posted November 5, 2020 5 minutes ago, Chienmortbb said: The Oxford vaccine is due to reveal its phase 3 trial results in December. Fingers crossed. The Cambridge vaccine will beat it in the boat race though. 1 Quote
Chienmortbb Posted November 5, 2020 Posted November 5, 2020 6 hours ago, Frank Blank said: The Cambridge vaccine will beat it in the boat race though. Ironically there is a Cambridge vaccine, it is a long way behind but uses a novel way of injection, without a needle using compressed air. 1 Quote
Stub Mandrel Posted November 5, 2020 Posted November 5, 2020 11 minutes ago, Chienmortbb said: novel way of injection, without a needle using compressed air. Not that novel... Quote
Chienmortbb Posted November 5, 2020 Posted November 5, 2020 10 minutes ago, Stub Mandrel said: Not that novel... Ah but that was science fiction.............. Quote
Stub Mandrel Posted November 6, 2020 Posted November 6, 2020 16 hours ago, Chienmortbb said: Ah but that was science fiction.............. It's a classic example of science fiction inspiring a technological development. Quote
scrumpymike Posted November 6, 2020 Author Posted November 6, 2020 3 hours ago, Stub Mandrel said: It's a classic example of science fiction inspiring a technological development. ...or predicting one. Quote
Stub Mandrel Posted November 6, 2020 Posted November 6, 2020 (edited) 1 hour ago, scrumpymike said: ...or predicting one. I am wrong @Chienmortbb. The principle was invented in 1866 and well-known in the early 20th century due to industrial accidents. A working application was patented in 1960. I suppose that means the Cambridge approach isn't very novel... Edited November 6, 2020 by Stub Mandrel Quote
Frank Blank Posted November 6, 2020 Posted November 6, 2020 1 hour ago, Stub Mandrel said: I suppose that means the Cambridge approach isn't very novel... Still wins the boat race though. Quote
Chienmortbb Posted November 7, 2020 Posted November 7, 2020 Socially distanced boat race? Interesting. Quote
scrumpymike Posted November 7, 2020 Author Posted November 7, 2020 24 minutes ago, Chienmortbb said: Socially distanced boat race? Interesting. Yes, you'd need a 28-metre-long racing 8 for that - provided, of course, the rowers and cox are wearing the PPE needed for 1m distancing. If they want to maintain the recommended 2m distancing, they need a 36m-long boat. Sorry... I'll get my coat. Wait a minute - I can't leave the house! 1 Quote
Phil Starr Posted November 10, 2020 Posted November 10, 2020 On 03/11/2020 at 14:10, scrumpymike said: Thanks for your insightful words Phil. Well it was a few weeks earlier than I thought. Yesterday's news might mean we are back on for a completely safe bash in the summer sunshine. What a celebration that will be 1 Quote
Rich Posted November 10, 2020 Posted November 10, 2020 On 02/11/2020 at 09:55, EBS_freak said: I suspect that date is more realistic. My facebook wall is still full of musicians thinking that this is all going be solved and back to normal my April 2021. I really really hope it is, even if only a bit. My son is getting married on 22nd April and we're playing at their evening party... Quote
Chienmortbb Posted February 16, 2021 Posted February 16, 2021 On 10/11/2020 at 12:02, Rich said: I really really hope it is, even if only a bit. My son is getting married on 22nd April and we're playing at their evening party... You might just make that one. Quote
Rich Posted February 16, 2021 Posted February 16, 2021 1 minute ago, Chienmortbb said: You might just make that one. They've rescheduled it again to July... Quote
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