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SIMS Bass raffle - Enfield Avenger


LewisK1975

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1 hour ago, Dan Dare said:

The value of the prize doesn't come into it. It's the chance of winning that is important if you are considering a gamble.

I think the prize definitely matters.  If it's £50 to enter, and your chance of winning is 1 in 50, and the prize is £10, only a fool would enter.  But if the prize was £10,000,000 you'd be a fool not to.

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Oh and btw, it is a 50/1 shot.

If you have 1 chance in 50 of winning, the odds are 49/1.  It expresses the ratio of the 49 times you lose to the 1 time you win.  In the same way, rolling a 6 on a die is 5/1, and winning a coin toss is 1/1.

 

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6 hours ago, jrixn1 said:

I think the prize definitely matters.  If it's £50 to enter, and your chance of winning is 1 in 50, and the prize is £10, only a fool would enter.  But if the prize was £10,000,000 you'd be a fool not to.

If you have 1 chance in 50 of winning, the odds are 49/1.  It expresses the ratio of the 49 times you lose to the 1 time you win.  In the same way, rolling a 6 on a die is 5/1, and winning a coin toss is 1/1.

 

I would always show the probability of a heads coin toss as 2/1 - then if you are flipping two coins the probability of both being heads can be shown as (2*2)/1 or three (2*2*2)/1 etc it’s confusing otherwise 

 

I think you’re showing win ratio rather than probability 

Edited by LukeFRC
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8 hours ago, jrixn1 said:

I think the prize definitely matters.  If it's £50 to enter, and your chance of winning is 1 in 50, and the prize is £10, only a fool would enter.  But if the prize was £10,000,000 you'd be a fool not to.

If you have 1 chance in 50 of winning, the odds are 49/1.  It expresses the ratio of the 49 times you lose to the 1 time you win.  In the same way, rolling a 6 on a die is 5/1, and winning a coin toss is 1/1.

 

The prize isn't £10m. It's around £2k. As for being "a fool not to", do you buy £50 worth of lottery tickets when the rollover tops £10m? How many times have you won the big prize? You're incorrect about how odds work, but I can't be bothered to argue.

Edited by Dan Dare
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4 hours ago, EBS_freak said:

Just to clear things up...

On a coin toss, the odds of an outcome are 1/1

The probability is 1/2.

...right?

Yes, exactly.  I think confusion can arise because the "/" symbol is used in different ways:

When discussing probability, "/" is showing a fraction.  So for winning a throw of the die, where you win 1 time out of 6, the probability of winning is 1/6, or 1÷6, or 0.166667.  The scale runs from 0 (something which is literally impossible) to 1 (a dead cert).

On the other hand, with odds, "/" expresses a ratio of losing to winning.  E.g. the odds of winning a throw of the die are 5/1, as this is saying that 5 times you lose vs 1 time you win.  It'd perhaps be a lot clearer if it was written 5-1 or 5:1, but the convention for whatever reason is to use "/".

Then there's another scenario.  When you bet on a horse at, say, 10/1, that is not the mathematical odds of the horse winning, but the price the bookmaker will pay out for a win, again expressed as a ratio; i.e. they will give you £10 profit for each £1 you wager.  The true mathematical odds of the horse winning are impossible to work out, but they will generally be less likely than the price offered; the difference is how the bookmakers make a living.  With the dice analogy, it would be you (the punter) rolling the die, which mathematically has 5/1 odds of winning; but I (the bookmaker) only offering you 4/1 on your money.

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2 minutes ago, jrixn1 said:

Yes, exactly.  I think confusion can arise because the "/" symbol is used in different ways:

When discussing probability, "/" is showing a fraction.  So for winning a throw of the die, where you win 1 time out of 6, the probability of winning is 1/6, or 1÷6, or 0.166667.  The scale runs from 0 (something which is literally impossible) to 1 (a dead cert).

On the other hand, with odds, "/" expresses a ratio of losing to winning.  E.g. the odds of winning a throw of the die are 5/1, as this is saying that 5 times you lose vs 1 time you win.  It'd perhaps be a lot clearer if it was written 5-1 or 5:1, but the convention for whatever reason is to use "/".

Then there's another scenario.  When you bet on a horse at, say, 10/1, that is not the mathematical odds of the horse winning, but the price the bookmaker will pay out for a win, again expressed as a ratio; i.e. they will give you £10 profit for each £1 you wager.  The true mathematical odds of the horse winning are impossible to work out, but they will generally be less likely than the price offered; the difference is how the bookmakers make a living.  With the dice analogy, it would be you (the punter) rolling the die, which mathematically has 5/1 odds of winning; but I (the bookmaker) only offering you 4/1 on your money.

I remember all this from my maths lessons when I was a kid. Not that I've ever really had a real world application in which to make use of what I'd learned. I've never been a gambler - my only flutter being on the lottery. But I don't think anybody plays that based on odds...

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I’m pretty sure it’s in breach of the Gambling Act. I’ve emailed Martin Sims at Enfield this morning via their FB site saying he should check it out and pointing to some Gambling Commission web links. Let’s see if it’s still up there by tomorrow...

 

Maybe you’ll be lucky if they do a Big Bass GIVEAWAY @LewisK1975

Edited by TrevorR
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1 hour ago, TrevorR said:

I’m pretty sure it’s in breach of the Gambling Act. I’ve emailed Martin Sims at Enfield this morning via their FB site saying he should check it out and pointing to some Gambling Commission web links. Let’s see if it’s still up there by tomorrow...

 

Maybe you’ll be lucky if they do a Big Bass GIVEAWAY @LewisK1975

Hi - Thank you for your Facebook message this morning, we are currently reaching out to the gambling commission and we will work with them on a solution, if it’s simply just not possible then everyone who has entered will be refunded.

 

Cheers

M

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9 hours ago, Sims said:

Hi - Thank you for your Facebook message this morning, we are currently reaching out to the gambling commission and we will work with them on a solution, if it’s simply just not possible then everyone who has entered will be refunded.

 

Cheers

M

Martin, Sorry to have been the potential bearer of bad news. Hope that it all gets sorted out amicably and without kerfuffle.

Edited by TrevorR
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5 minutes ago, fretmeister said:

I entered a similar one years ago. £20 but the top prize was an Aston Martin.

Needless to say I didn't win.

 

Shame really, think of all the basses I could have bought when I sold it!

Or all the lead singers and guitarists you could have ejected at high speed...🥴

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