SIMS Bass raffle - Enfield Avenger

[AndyTravis]

It looks like a lovely bass. I know I sound like a baby when I say I prefer the more traditional shape of these to the other models...if I’m honest a tort guard would balance the darkness of the pickups too.

I’m not sure yet on the £50. Not yet.

[jrixn1]

  On 30/10/2019 at 22:39, Dan Dare said:

The value of the prize doesn't come into it. It's the chance of winning that is important if you are considering a gamble.

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I think the prize definitely matters.  If it's £50 to enter, and your chance of winning is 1 in 50, and the prize is £10, only a fool would enter.  But if the prize was £10,000,000 you'd be a fool not to.

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Oh and btw, it is a 50/1 shot.

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If you have 1 chance in 50 of winning, the odds are 49/1.  It expresses the ratio of the 49 times you lose to the 1 time you win.  In the same way, rolling a 6 on a die is 5/1, and winning a coin toss is 1/1.

 

[LukeFRC]

  On 31/10/2019 at 00:30, jrixn1 said:

I think the prize definitely matters.  If it's £50 to enter, and your chance of winning is 1 in 50, and the prize is £10, only a fool would enter.  But if the prize was £10,000,000 you'd be a fool not to.

If you have 1 chance in 50 of winning, the odds are 49/1.  It expresses the ratio of the 49 times you lose to the 1 time you win.  In the same way, rolling a 6 on a die is 5/1, and winning a coin toss is 1/1.

 

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I would always show the probability of a heads coin toss as 2/1 - then if you are flipping two coins the probability of both being heads can be shown as (2*2)/1 or three (2*2*2)/1 etc it’s confusing otherwise 

 

I think you’re showing win ratio rather than probability 

Edited October 31, 2019 by LukeFRC

[EBS_freak]

Just to clear things up...

On a coin toss, the odds of an outcome are 1/1

The probability is 1/2.

...right?

[Dan Dare]

  On 31/10/2019 at 00:30, jrixn1 said:

I think the prize definitely matters.  If it's £50 to enter, and your chance of winning is 1 in 50, and the prize is £10, only a fool would enter.  But if the prize was £10,000,000 you'd be a fool not to.

If you have 1 chance in 50 of winning, the odds are 49/1.  It expresses the ratio of the 49 times you lose to the 1 time you win.  In the same way, rolling a 6 on a die is 5/1, and winning a coin toss is 1/1.

 

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The prize isn't £10m. It's around £2k. As for being "a fool not to", do you buy £50 worth of lottery tickets when the rollover tops £10m? How many times have you won the big prize? You're incorrect about how odds work, but I can't be bothered to argue.

Edited October 31, 2019 by Dan Dare

[EBS_freak]

Where is Dianne Abbot when you need her?

[jrixn1]

  On 31/10/2019 at 07:35, EBS_freak said:

Just to clear things up...

On a coin toss, the odds of an outcome are 1/1

The probability is 1/2.

...right?

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Yes, exactly.  I think confusion can arise because the "/" symbol is used in different ways:

When discussing probability, "/" is showing a fraction.  So for winning a throw of the die, where you win 1 time out of 6, the probability of winning is 1/6, or 1÷6, or 0.166667.  The scale runs from 0 (something which is literally impossible) to 1 (a dead cert).

On the other hand, with odds, "/" expresses a ratio of losing to winning.  E.g. the odds of winning a throw of the die are 5/1, as this is saying that 5 times you lose vs 1 time you win.  It'd perhaps be a lot clearer if it was written 5-1 or 5:1, but the convention for whatever reason is to use "/".

Then there's another scenario.  When you bet on a horse at, say, 10/1, that is not the mathematical odds of the horse winning, but the price the bookmaker will pay out for a win, again expressed as a ratio; i.e. they will give you £10 profit for each £1 you wager.  The true mathematical odds of the horse winning are impossible to work out, but they will generally be less likely than the price offered; the difference is how the bookmakers make a living.  With the dice analogy, it would be you (the punter) rolling the die, which mathematically has 5/1 odds of winning; but I (the bookmaker) only offering you 4/1 on your money.

[EBS_freak]

  On 31/10/2019 at 12:20, jrixn1 said:

Yes, exactly.  I think confusion can arise because the "/" symbol is used in different ways:

When discussing probability, "/" is showing a fraction.  So for winning a throw of the die, where you win 1 time out of 6, the probability of winning is 1/6, or 1÷6, or 0.166667.  The scale runs from 0 (something which is literally impossible) to 1 (a dead cert).

On the other hand, with odds, "/" expresses a ratio of losing to winning.  E.g. the odds of winning a throw of the die are 5/1, as this is saying that 5 times you lose vs 1 time you win.  It'd perhaps be a lot clearer if it was written 5-1 or 5:1, but the convention for whatever reason is to use "/".

Then there's another scenario.  When you bet on a horse at, say, 10/1, that is not the mathematical odds of the horse winning, but the price the bookmaker will pay out for a win, again expressed as a ratio; i.e. they will give you £10 profit for each £1 you wager.  The true mathematical odds of the horse winning are impossible to work out, but they will generally be less likely than the price offered; the difference is how the bookmakers make a living.  With the dice analogy, it would be you (the punter) rolling the die, which mathematically has 5/1 odds of winning; but I (the bookmaker) only offering you 4/1 on your money.

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I remember all this from my maths lessons when I was a kid. Not that I've ever really had a real world application in which to make use of what I'd learned. I've never been a gambler - my only flutter being on the lottery. But I don't think anybody plays that based on odds...

[mr zed]

I wonder what would happen if he OP is the only person to enter......!

[LewisK1975]

  On 31/10/2019 at 12:33, mr zed said:

I wonder what would happen if he OP is the only person to enter......!

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I would expect to get refunded - They won't draw until they've sold 50 entries.

[TrevorR]

I’m pretty sure it’s in breach of the Gambling Act. I’ve emailed Martin Sims at Enfield this morning via their FB site saying he should check it out and pointing to some Gambling Commission web links. Let’s see if it’s still up there by tomorrow...

 

Maybe you’ll be lucky if they do a Big Bass GIVEAWAY @LewisK1975

Edited November 1, 2019 by TrevorR

[Sims]

  On 01/11/2019 at 08:08, TrevorR said:

I’m pretty sure it’s in breach of the Gambling Act. I’ve emailed Martin Sims at Enfield this morning via their FB site saying he should check it out and pointing to some Gambling Commission web links. Let’s see if it’s still up there by tomorrow...

 

Maybe you’ll be lucky if they do a Big Bass GIVEAWAY @LewisK1975

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Hi - Thank you for your Facebook message this morning, we are currently reaching out to the gambling commission and we will work with them on a solution, if it’s simply just not possible then everyone who has entered will be refunded.

 

Cheers

M

[TrevorR]

  On 01/11/2019 at 09:38, Sims said:

Hi - Thank you for your Facebook message this morning, we are currently reaching out to the gambling commission and we will work with them on a solution, if it’s simply just not possible then everyone who has entered will be refunded.

 

Cheers

M

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Martin, Sorry to have been the potential bearer of bad news. Hope that it all gets sorted out amicably and without kerfuffle.

Edited November 1, 2019 by TrevorR

[Sims]

This is still on guys! All proceeds going to Nordorf Robbins.

[fretmeister]

I entered a similar one years ago. £20 but the top prize was an Aston Martin.

Needless to say I didn't win.

 

Shame really, think of all the basses I could have bought when I sold it!

[oldslapper]

  On 07/11/2019 at 12:27, fretmeister said:

I entered a similar one years ago. £20 but the top prize was an Aston Martin.

Needless to say I didn't win.

 

Shame really, think of all the basses I could have bought when I sold it!

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Or all the lead singers and guitarists you could have ejected at high speed...🥴

[bumnote]

where is the link?

[TrevorR]

  On 07/11/2019 at 12:19, Sims said:

This is still on guys! All proceeds going to Nordorf Robbins.

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Good news!!!

[fretmeister]

  On 07/11/2019 at 12:39, bumnote said:

where is the link?

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I couldn't find it either.

 

 

[LewisK1975]

I guess maybe it was removed from the @Sims Facebook page while they where checking everything out?

[Sims]

Please contact us:

 

martin@sims.guitars 

 

for any info  

[Mastodon2]

Glad to see the raffle is still on, despite some rather cynical attempts to torpedo the venture. Good luck to all who enter and I hope whoever wins love the bass. 

[AndyTravis]

I’m sat on a fence wondering what to do...

[yorks5stringer]

  On 08/11/2019 at 18:47, AndyTravis said:

I’m sat on a fence wondering what to do...

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Could you ask the guy with grey hair next to you whether he's 'for' or 'against'?

[AndyTravis]

  On 08/11/2019 at 23:08, yorks5stringer said:

Could you ask the guy with grey hair next to you whether he's 'for' or 'against'?

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Hahaha. No. I’m asking myself as a dad of 4 if £50 can go walkies with nobody noticing.