Pubs opening July 4th - Gigs?

[T-Bay]

36 minutes ago, Happy Jack said:

I note that this 5% figure gets quoted endlessly at the moment as if it's a fact.

In practice, the (almost) complete absence of effective testing - both now and especially when this thing was peaking - combined with the extensive evidence that very many people have had Covid-19 whilst displaying either very minimal symptoms or none at all means that the 5% stat is almost certainly wildly understated. 

5% is one in twenty. I live in London, the most heavily-affected place in the UK. I can easily identify 20 people who I see very frequently, and pick out 10 of then (including me, of course) who have had Covid-19. Not only is that a 50% hit rate, but NONE of those ten have been captured in any sample. 

Can I prove that? Of course not, but I'd much rather rely on my own direct experience than the panic-stricken pap provided by the media over the last three months. When the Public Enquiry into all this finally happens, I suspect that it will make for some very interesting results.

 

Equally I work in a place with 80 staff and 200 ‘customers’. We have not had a single case (thankfully as we have some very vulnerable people). When looking at anything in epidemiology and individuals experience is just that - the individual experience. Some will be in groups and areas that are very badly affected, others will know no one affected. That is why we need the bigger studies. They are not based on asking everyone but on using sampling techniques and extrapolation to get an idea on how badly affected any given area is. It isn’t perfect but the expertise and experience of those doing it improves all the time and is also based on experience from previous epidemics of all sorts of diseases.

[drTStingray]

Post deleted (duplicated - almost!!) 

Edited June 24, 2020 by drTStingray

[drTStingray]

48 minutes ago, Happy Jack said:

What we DO know is that our entire approach to civilisation has had to be modified, and not everyone is entirely happy with that. We also know that our current approach to that modification involves spending unbelievably massive amounts of money that we don't have, which then impacts on every other aspect of life for decades to come. 

 I'm one of the lucky 50% of working people who can work from home - my finances have never been better as I'm currently spending very little other than on household expenses and food. I also think I'm living a more healthy, less stressful lifestyle - I had a McDonald's for the first time in three months on Sunday - as a previously loyal once or twice a week customer I shan't be having another any time soon. 

I think getting back to normal is unlikely ever to happen - the airline industry is realising that. 

Apparently 60% of A and E capacity hasn't been taken up by alcohol related matters either for the last three months. There are some social benefits.

However if I was 18 I'd be mortified that pubs are closed - for me, the fact my high street is no longer a place made unsafe by the volume of drink fuelled youngsters and others milling around and breaking into fights is a very positive thing - much as it will have caused Mr Wetherspoon's profits to take a hit. 

Edited June 24, 2020 by drTStingray

[Muzz]

My other half (a nurse) tested positive for the antibodies a couple of weeks ago, and then negative for the virus. So, within the parameters of the testing efficacy we've got, she's had it and it's gone. She had a bout of loss of taste/smell a couple of months ago, and the other two of us in the house (myself and our lad) have both had odd two/three day 'lurgies', but nothing with the then-prevalent 'dry persistent cough' symptoms. I'm struggling to believe with my other half having had it, that we haven't.

Anyhoo, we've been offered a gig on the 4th; a pub with a huge garden and outside bar. We'll be playing outside, and I can't wait...

[PaulWarning]

no gigs anytime soon, no surprises there.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8454781/Coronavirus-revolution-Governments-issued-post-lockdown-rules.html

[Muppet]

10 minutes ago, PaulWarning said:

no gigs anytime soon, no surprises there.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8454781/Coronavirus-revolution-Governments-issued-post-lockdown-rules.html

Check the links I posted earlier for the actual Govt advice.  I'm drawing my conclusions from them rather than the Daily Mail's interpretation!  

[la bam]

18 minutes ago, drTStingray said:

Apparently 60% of A and E capacity hasn't been taken up by alcohol related matters either for the last three months. There are some social benefits.

Tells it's own story that statistic.

[la bam]

Anywho....... thinking laterally - why does live music have to be stuck in with drink and pubs? Remove those 2 obstacles and there will be plenty of options where to play.

[Muzz]

As an aside, the first thing my other half did when she heard about the 4th July re-openings was check her duty roster...no-one in A&E/AMU wants to be working that weekend; it's going to be carnage...thankfully, she's not on, but I suspect the 5-0 are bracing for a similar nightmare Saturday night...

[bertbass]

No singing allowed in venues, churches and theatres as it's more likely to spread the virus.

[Kev]

Haven't read the thread, but to respond to the thread title... no.  Definitely no gigs.  No live performances whatsover, inside or outside a venue.

I don't know how this new guidance effects drive in gigs or gigs in parks etc.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Kev

[la bam]

1 hour ago, Muzz said:

As an aside, the first thing my other half did when she heard about the 4th July re-openings was check her duty roster...no-one in A&E/AMU wants to be working that weekend; it's going to be carnage...thankfully, she's not on, but I suspect the 5-0 are bracing for a similar nightmare Saturday night...

I know, it's a disgrace. 

Weve had 3 months relative calm and its gonna go straight back to fighting in pubs, clubs and on the street, and all the anti social disgraceful things that go with it. Shame people never learn.

[bassbiscuits]

I'm glad I don't drink, but i couldn't help scoffing at the pronouncement from the Government that going out drinking at the pub is the "patriotic thing to do" and part of a great British tradition. Wow.

 

 

 

[jassthebass]

Here's the government website

 

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/the-visitor-economy

 

Defo no indoor gigs but a bit unclear on outside gigs but it may have to be quiet ... no metal gigs then ...

 

 

[chris_b]

3 minutes ago, jassthebass said:

Defo no indoor gigs but a bit unclear on outside gigs but it may have to be quiet ...

I would imagine all environmental laws relating to excessive noise are still in force, so outdoor gigs, just because the pub has a garden, are probably a non starter.

[Happy Jack]

8 minutes ago, chris_b said:

I would imagine all environmental laws relating to excessive noise are still in force, so outdoor gigs, just because the pub has a garden, are probably a non starter.

Disagree.

Excessive noise is a non-starter (good) but there's no actual law that actually requires so-called musicians to make excessive noise.

Quiet music is very often good music.

 

[Chezz55]

Extract from https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/the-visitor-economy   (Last sentence of paragraph following 'The 14 Steps That Will Usually Be Needed')

"At this time, venues should not permit indoor performances, including drama, comedy and music, to take place in front of a live audience."

Dammit.

Chris

[Al Krow]

If they came as zombies, I think we should be ok.

I guess it's just that time of the season.

[spectoremg]

4 hours ago, Happy Jack said:

This really isn't about "just letting people die" any more than it's about "no person left behind". The disease isn't a government policy that can be changed, or a dangerous behaviour that can be outlawed ... it's a thing that exists and that we now have to deal with, like cancer. 

We currently have no cure. We currently have no evidence that a cure will ever be available. We currently do not know whether herd immunity exists or whether you can get hit by this twice. We don't know how many different but related strains of Covid-19 exist or whether there can be cross-immunity between them. In fact, there's a staggeringly long list of things we don't know.

What we DO know is that our entire approach to civilisation has had to be modified, and not everyone is entirely happy with that. We also know that our current approach to that modification involves spending unbelievably massive amounts of money that we don't have, which then impacts on every other aspect of life for decades to come. 

I've spent my entire life so far aware of the risk of dying from a very long list of potential causes. As far as I'm concerned, I've now added Covid-19 to that list and I want to get back to living my life. Many others feel the same way, but of course there are plenty who disagree.

I'm not saying that I'm right at this precise moment, but I do know that eventually we WILL have to get back to living our lives. All we're doing is bickering about the timing.

Will people die? Yes, of course they will, just as they always have. 

Excellent. Could you post that to parliament, they seem to have a very simplified view of things as do their increasingly cooperative medical advisers. 

[Greg Edwards69]

The guidance puts paid to any gigs, indoors or outdoors.  Part of the guidance is to reduce the risk of infection caused by people raising their voices, as this increased the chance of droplets/aerosols being spread.  This can happen indoors or outdoors.

I also feel this affects rehearsals too. Singing involved sustained, raised voices. I'm not comfortable with the idea of sharing a grubby rehearsal room with 5 other people all from different households for 4 hours. 

Edited June 24, 2020 by Greg Edwards69

[Muppet]

41 minutes ago, Chezz55 said:

Extract from https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/the-visitor-economy   (Last sentence of paragraph following 'The 14 Steps That Will Usually Be Needed')

"At this time, venues should not permit indoor performances, including drama, comedy and music, to take place in front of a live audience."

Dammit.

Chris

That's the summary guidance.

 

The detailed guidance is slightly different and is as follows

Objective: To maintain social distancing when providing entertainment within or outside restaurants, pubs, bars and similar venues that serve food or drink.

At this time, venues should not permit live performances, including drama, comedy and music, to take place in front of a live audience.

 

 

[Muppet]

Just now, Greg Edwards69 said:

I also feel this affects rehearsals too. Singing involved sustained, raised voices. I'm not comfortable with the idea of sharing a grubby rehearsal room with 5 other people all from different households for 4 hours. 

From section 4.5 of the detailed guidance

There will be further guidance setting out how performing arts activity can be managed safely in other settings, for instance rehearsing or broadcast without an audience.

[Greg Edwards69]

1 minute ago, Muppet said:

From section 4.5 of the detailed guidance

There will be further guidance setting out how performing arts activity can be managed safely in other settings, for instance rehearsing or broadcast without an audience.

Hah!  I've read that section multiple times but somehow missed that bit!  Thank you.

[TwoTimesBass]

I wonder where showing live sports on a big screen sits with these guidelines? Can't imagine a local derby where everyone stays in their seats and doesn't raise their voice...

[Cuzzie]

4 hours ago, Happy Jack said:

I note that this 5% figure gets quoted endlessly at the moment as if it's a fact.

In practice, the (almost) complete absence of effective testing - both now and especially when this thing was peaking - combined with the extensive evidence that very many people have had Covid-19 whilst displaying either very minimal symptoms or none at all means that the 5% stat is almost certainly wildly understated. 

5% is one in twenty. I live in London, the most heavily-affected place in the UK. I can easily identify 20 people who I see very frequently, and pick out 10 of then (including me, of course) who have had Covid-19. Not only is that a 50% hit rate, but NONE of those ten have been captured in any sample. 

Can I prove that? Of course not, but I'd much rather rely on my own direct experience than the panic-stricken pap provided by the media over the last three months. When the Public Enquiry into all this finally happens, I suspect that it will make for some very interesting results.

 

Re figures - the 5% is probably not far off overall - antibody testing in my hospital has it slightly higher for staff, but as you would expect their risk of exposure is greater.

We still need to keep vigilant though