Pubs opening July 4th - Gigs?

[Cuzzie]

8 minutes ago, Monkey Steve said:

I'll apologise in advance if this sounds a little heartless - I say nothing about the human tragedy of current events, and what follows shouldn't be taken as me saying that I don't care, it's purely about the numbers and the risks...It also takes us further off topic, so again, apologies

I was on a mortality webinar a couple of weeks ago (for work - I'm a pensions manager and life expediencies and mortality rates have a huge impact on pension funding) and the somewhat surprising message is that nothing much has changed.  While 40,000+ people have died of Covid-19 so far,  that's against an expected rate of death of about 500,000 over the same period.  While they wouldn't have been expected to die of this new disease, most of the deaths are those who were at risk of dying from something else to begin with.  Obviously there are exceptions and otherwise healthy people have died, but they are exceptions.  There is a slight increase against the expected number of deaths, but not a statistically significant one, and the potential reduction in life expectancy has to be set against the steady increase in life expectancy over the last few decades - as things stand we might be knocked back to life expectancy from around ten years ago, but there has only been a marginal increase over the last decade. 

The data is emerging to show a correlation between Covid deaths and economically deprived areas, which are acknowledged to already have a link to poorer health and shorter life expediencies than wealthier areas.  As a Type 1 Diabetic I should probably be worried that diabetics make up an alarmingly large number of the Covid deaths (although that seems to relate to poorly controlled diabetes rather than diabetics per se) and the spike in Covid deaths in the BAME community looks heavily linked to the high incidence of diabetes in the South Asian population

The quote I remember was "it's not the black death - the overwhelming majority of people who get Covid-19 will not die from it".  Obviously that doesn't take away from the risk to vulnerable people

Of course there are a number of factors at play here -for instance, deaths from car crashes is almost certainly down over the same period.  This will play out for a long time to come

It not heartless, but I do think overall there is an increase.
 

It’s really important what you say about poor socioeconomic status on this and also being BAME. The financial implication of this will push people further - I don’t mind saying I am BAME and work frontline, with someone in the house who would be considered vulnerable and had to still work, thankfully ok for now, and I am lucky levels are low in the South West.

What the intangible here is the number of people who stayed away from treatment Because of it and their poor outcome, also what is a problem are the people with co-morbidities who need an operation if they contract Covid in the perioperative period they have higher mortality and morbidity rates.

So despite what you say (and it’s not having a go, your post was fine) it will have a huge knock on effect

[Cuzzie]

Apologies - I went off on a Covid one on a pub thread!

[Happy Jack]

5 minutes ago, Cuzzie said:

Apologies - I went off on a Covid one on a pub thread!

You weren't alone in that - apologies from me too if this was too much of a thread de-rail!

 

[Phil Starr]

19 minutes ago, Happy Jack said:

Understood, but where does that "as many as a third" stat come from? Have they done clinical testing on how many operator errors will be made by all those who may have to operate the testing kit? I rather suspect not, which translates as "that's yet another made-up stat".

So no number of such tests run on me, for example, would ever know that I've had Covid-19. Which was pretty much my point.

But "broadly speaking" is exactly what we DON'T want. What we want is accurate and specific testing for Covid-19, and the above responses offer little encouragement that any such test actually exists.

Please let me stress that I will be DELIGHTED to be proved wrong on this and on so much else besides, but I've spent my entire adult life calling it as I see it, and that's not about to change. I see NO evidence that we have ANY reliable testing, which means that we have NO idea how widespread Covid-19 now is in the UK population.

Can I use some MORE capitals yet?

 

The 'as many as a third' comes from direct measurement and basically depends upon people who have had multiple tests. The paper I read a month or so ago when I got my negative test shows that the figure of 62% accuracy came from the swab test, other samples like sputum tests and testing samples from deep in the lungs give a higher figure for accuracy. My test was taken 6 days after symptoms first started so basically useless. The test took five days to arrive but arrived 10 mins too late to book collection, hence adding an extra day.

The swab test is just about 100% if it is positive as it only works if Viral RNA is present but has lots of false negatives.

[Happy Jack]

Just now, Phil Starr said:

The swab test is just about 100% if it is positive as it only works if Viral RNA is present but has lots of false negatives.

Must ... resist ... fight ... temptation ... step ... away ... from ... keyboard ...

[Cuzzie]

5 minutes ago, Happy Jack said:

Must ... resist ... fight ... temptation ... step ... away ... from ... keyboard ...

YOU GOTTA TYPE

FOR YOUR RIGHT

TO PAAAAAAAAAAARTAAAAAAAYYY!

[Phil Starr]

People are talking as if the only options are more of the same until a vaccination comes along or allowing a few more tens of thousands of deaths, mainly of the elderly, diabetics and BAME people. This just isn't true. Plenty of other countries with a short sharp lock down, sensible hygiene measures and aggressive test, track and trace have got infection rates down to well below other seasonal diseases and have had days, sometimes weeks with no Covid related deaths. If we did the things South Korea or New Zealand did then not only would more people be alive today but there would be nothing special to be frightened of, the economy could have restarted by now  and we'd all be able to get out gigging. We didn't do those things, the governments own advisors are predicting a second wave of infection, no end is in sight and our excess deaths are amongst the worst in the world. Not a political point, we'll never know how a Corbyn government would have done but it didn't need to be like this. This is about competence. Apparently as rare as PPE.

Edited June 24, 2020 by Phil Starr

[Greg Edwards69]

1 hour ago, paul_c2 said:

Would you be comfortable to share a larger (so that everyone can be socially distanced, probably at 2m because the extra mitigations for 1m would be difficult) rehearsal venue, which was much cleaner (regularly cleaned) and has a Covid-specific risk assessment published and available for all to see? Because I think that's the reality - but its now up to venues to take those next steps (for rehearsals).

TBH, about the only sort of rehearsal space I'd be happy in at the moment would be semi open space, such as a barn or marquee. It's been shown that droplets can spread much further than 2m. It's not so bad in the shops were people are constantly moving, but I wouldn't feel comfortable spending 4 hours with people singing, and spreading droplets even at the minimum distance of 2m, even if they are all close friends.  A Covid-specific risk assessment would however, make a big difference.

Anyway, the government is yet to publish guidance on rehearsals for bands and other artforms, so it's all rather a moot point at the moment.

[Steve Browning]

This guy could end up quite busy.

[ClassicVibes]

Just now, Steve Browning said:

This guy could end up quite busy.

This guy will be even busier!

 

[drTStingray]

1 hour ago, Monkey Steve said:

I'll apologise in advance if this sounds a little heartless - I say nothing about the human tragedy of current events, and what follows shouldn't be taken as me saying that I don't care, it's purely about the numbers and the risks...It also takes us further off topic, so again, apologies

I was on a mortality webinar a couple of weeks ago (for work - I'm a pensions manager and life expediencies and mortality rates have a huge impact on pension funding) and the somewhat surprising message is that nothing much has changed.  While 40,000+ people have died of Covid-19 so far,  that's against an expected rate of death of about 500,000 over the same period.  While they wouldn't have been expected to die of this new disease, most of the deaths are those who were at risk of dying from something else to begin with.  Obviously there are exceptions and otherwise healthy people have died, but they are exceptions.  There is a slight increase against the expected number of deaths, but not a statistically significant one, and the potential reduction in life expectancy has to be set against the steady increase in life expectancy over the last few decades - as things stand we might be knocked back to life expectancy from around ten years ago, but there has only been a marginal increase over the last decade.

Interesting - however the graphs published by the ONS show a huge spike in additional deaths across the last three months or so - unless you're comparing on a completely different basis that is the reality. 

I think the main thing with this is it's possible to reduce risk by your own actions - washing hands, maintaining social distance when outside etc. I personally will be reluctant to go in pubs or even restaurants after July 4th - it's a bit like driving - you can be as safe as you like yourself but you rely on others to be as vigilant. 

I don't think it helps downplaying the risks to some groups and increasing the fear in others. This was one of the problems at the start of the lockdown - the vast majority wouldn't be affected and especially younger people. Tragically they have been affected and such announcements make people in those groups less vigilant. 

Based on official figures, nearly 15% of the total tested positive with Covid in the UK have died - whilst I believe far more have had the disease so the percentage is lower, I still view the percentage dying as very worrying. 

The lab service had been 'made more efficient' and rationalised along with countless areas of the NHS prior to this virus which is one of the reasons the testing process was not ramped up early on. There have been stories in the local press in this region in the last couple of years of testing, say for drink driving blood tests, taking so long the Police were either past or almost at the point of the deadline for prosecution. So what chance with a pandemic? 

Edited June 24, 2020 by drTStingray

[Happy Jack]

19 minutes ago, Greg Edwards69 said:

TBH, about the only sort of rehearsal space I'd be happy in at the moment would be semi open space, such as a barn or marquee. 

 

[Monkey Steve]

1 hour ago, Cuzzie said:

It not heartless, but I do think overall there is an increase.
 

It’s really important what you say about poor socioeconomic status on this and also being BAME. The financial implication of this will push people further - I don’t mind saying I am BAME and work frontline, with someone in the house who would be considered vulnerable and had to still work, thankfully ok for now, and I am lucky levels are low in the South West.

What the intangible here is the number of people who stayed away from treatment Because of it and their poor outcome, also what is a problem are the people with co-morbidities who need an operation if they contract Covid in the perioperative period they have higher mortality and morbidity rates.

So despite what you say (and it’s not having a go, your post was fine) it will have a huge knock on effect

yes, agreed - there's  a long way to go on this, and a lot of moving parts.

One of the very interesting comments from a pensions funding point of view (which was, after all, the point of the webinar) was that any change on mortality tables for the general population is likely to be watered down when applied to pensions, because people with large private or company pensions are typically the people in the wealthier areas with better health and longer life expectancies, who we know are less affected by Covid-19

My strong suspicion is that all of the other factors such as poverty and BAME (which as I say, seems to be significantly linked to the number of diabetics in the South Asian communities) will turn out to be proxies for the poor standard of general health in those areas.  Maybe the pandemic will get some momentum for improving general health in those communities

[Monkey Steve]

46 minutes ago, drTStingray said:

Interesting - however the graphs published by the ONS show a huge spike in additional deaths across the last three months or so - unless you're comparing on a completely different basis that is the reality. 

 

No - what it shows is a big spike in deaths in March and April, when the virus hit the UK, and was doing it's worst amongst the at risk populations.  But since then the number of death per week has been reducing and isn't much higher than the average number over the last few years: In isolation, that March April spike isn't a game changer when it comes to mortality rates and life expectancies, as these things happen periodically.  It should also be noted that the total number of deaths is in itself meaningless - total deaths per year have been increasing since 2011, in line with population growth

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending12june2020/previous/v1

There is also a lot of odd stuff in the data - for instance a significant increase in non-C-19 deaths in that same March/April period, which suggests that a lot of deaths from C-19 were being attributed to other causes (as seems to have been the case in care homes, where deaths of elderly residents in poor health were not unexpected so nobody was looking for coronavirus). But it does also show that over the last few weeks there has been a reduction in non-Covid deaths below the average, which links back to the point that to an extent some people are dying of C-19 who would otherwise be dying of something else (obviously from a general, statistical point of view, not individuals)

Of course this doesn't offer any conclusions - for instance we don't know whether we're going to get a second spike as the lockdown is relaxed, we don't know the long term implications on life expectancy for survivors with significant damage to their lungs, etc. As I say, this will play out for a while yet

[taunton-hobbit]

It's probably worth pointing out with all the shouting (not on here) about 'care home deaths'

that people are usually in a care home for a reason - 

😎

 

[KevB]

One of my bands has a member who's wife has recently given birth to their first child and one member in the other band has a dependent with Crohn's disease and is at high risk. I don't think either band is busting a gut to get out there gigging until we are happy the risks are minimal.

My other thought is that landlords will be desperate to get max numbers in that their spacing regs allows so if the choice is putting an extra couple of tables in earning money or using that space to host a band that will be £200-£300 out of the till straight away then many pubs might not be rushing to put live music back on.

[paul_c2]

8 hours ago, Muppet said:

Headline advice is here for the 'visitor' economy.

https://www.gov.uk/guidance/working-safely-during-coronavirus-covid-19/the-visitor-economy#shops-4-1

 

The document for pubs is here. Section 4.5 covers Entertainment

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/media/5eb96e8e86650c278b077616/Keeping-workers-and-customers-safe-during-covid-19-restaurants-pubs-bars-takeaways-230620.pdf

Does anyone have clarity on the issue of outdoor performances? In one document it says

"Venues should not permit indoor performances, including drama, comedy and music, to take place in front of a live audience."

and in the other one it says 

"At this time, venues should not permit live performances, including drama, comedy and music, to take place in front of a live audience. "

[taunton-hobbit]

........ if in doubt, don't ?

😎

[Lozz196]

Back on topic re pubs & gigs, my non-gigging band now have our only ever intended gig (a very good mates 50th) provisionally booked for March next year. I hope it works out, the band have been playing for years and only ever intended on this one gig, our mate will be heartbroken if can’t go ahead.

[Marvin]

It'll be quite a while before gigging returns for most I'd say. A few pubs that put on music in my area were in trouble before CV19. The post Christmas trade and footfall was becoming a real concern for them.

May as well stay home, learn new songs, learn theory, to read music...???????

[mikebass456]

1 hour ago, paul_c2 said:

Does anyone have clarity on the issue of outdoor performances? In one document it says

"Venues should not permit indoor performances, including drama, comedy and music, to take place in front of a live audience."

and in the other one it says 

"At this time, venues should not permit live performances, including drama, comedy and music, to take place in front of a live audience. "

I interpret the document as stating what is not to be done currently, in order to prevent over exciting the horses.  The second document does mention that further guidance for live performance situations will be forthcoming, further suggesting  that it's currently not permissable.......

[paul_c2]

1 hour ago, Marvin said:

May as well .............. read music...???????

Geeez don't go too crazy! Its only a global pandemic.

[fretmeister]

https://www.vox.com/2020/5/8/21251899/coronavirus-long-term-effects-symptoms
 

45% of those hospitalised to need ongoing care.

I’ll stay away from the open places I think. 

[drTStingray]

Whilst gigs are not possible currently, this web page, which I was alerted to this morning in connection with reopening offices, would help you to see the risk levels - the variation of local rates of infection is staggering - I wouldn't fancy playing a gig in Ashford at the moment!! 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/#category=ltlas&map=rate&area=e07000146

Edited June 25, 2020 by drTStingray

[barkin]

18 hours ago, taunton-hobbit said:

........ if in doubt, don't ?

😎

Quite. I really don't care what the guidelines are, I shan't be going to a pub/gig/rehearsal for a long time yet.