Pub band classed as pro and so working ??

[BassBunny]

On 16/10/2020 at 11:24, Beedster said:

The biggest problem with the statistical analysis of data is that the outcome is nearly always a function of who's running the numbers in the first place! Good post mate, interested in knowing your thoughts on the data and where we are/should be going?

Firstly apologies to the OP for high-jacking the thread but an interesting exchange. If the mods want to put this in a new thread, please do.

Chris, I really don't have a definitive answer. As you, @Happy Jack and myself are used to crunching numbers we know that if the data is wrong no matter what you do with it, the answer is useless. So currently the "scientists" are using Cases as the number. So how accurate are the Cases? Well it would appear that the results OR the collating of the results are suspect. As one example, Nursing Home staff are tested every week. One home I am aware of had 100% negatives week on week. Half the staff then had Seasonal Flu Jabs. Next round of tests, they were all positive. So anyone, and I have had just had one, having a flu jab stands the chance of being positive if required to have a Covid test. I know a couple of people who had tests that came up positive only to be asked to return for a second test 2 days later and they were negative. Clearly we don't have an accurate method of testing for Covid.

So having a predictive model, that is already suspect, running data, that is suspect can only give 1 result in my mind. If you switch to using Deaths as the data source, there is a similar problem. currently anyone passing away within 28 days of a positive test is counted as a Covid death. so if someone tests positive and is then run over by a bus within 28 days, it's one in the box for Covid. there are very few, if any, PM's being held as they are considered dangerous so the TRUE cause of death, in a lot of cases, will not be known but this is clearly inflating the true Covid death rate.

Finally it appears that from October 8th, deaths from seasonal flu are being lumped in with the figures. I would assume that can only be deaths unless the test IS picking up ANy Covid infection, which Flu is.

i think the attached graph says it all and is from Gov.UK figures. It clearly shows that "Cases" are going up, (well they will if you test more), but hospital admissions and deaths aren't following the same trend.

[Beedster]

35 minutes ago, BassBunny said:

Firstly apologies to the OP for high-jacking the thread but an interesting exchange. If the mods want to put this in a new thread, please do.

Chris, I really don't have a definitive answer. As you, @Happy Jack and myself are used to crunching numbers we know that if the data is wrong no matter what you do with it, the answer is useless. So currently the "scientists" are using Cases as the number. So how accurate are the Cases? Well it would appear that the results OR the collating of the results are suspect. As one example, Nursing Home staff are tested every week. One home I am aware of had 100% negatives week on week. Half the staff then had Seasonal Flu Jabs. Next round of tests, they were all positive. So anyone, and I have had just had one, having a flu jab stands the chance of being positive if required to have a Covid test. I know a couple of people who had tests that came up positive only to be asked to return for a second test 2 days later and they were negative. Clearly we don't have an accurate method of testing for Covid.

So having a predictive model, that is already suspect, running data, that is suspect can only give 1 result in my mind. If you switch to using Deaths as the data source, there is a similar problem. currently anyone passing away within 28 days of a positive test is counted as a Covid death. so if someone tests positive and is then run over by a bus within 28 days, it's one in the box for Covid. there are very few, if any, PM's being held as they are considered dangerous so the TRUE cause of death, in a lot of cases, will not be known but this is clearly inflating the true Covid death rate.

Finally it appears that from October 8th, deaths from seasonal flu are being lumped in with the figures. I would assume that can only be deaths unless the test IS picking up ANy Covid infection, which Flu is.

i think the attached graph says it all and is from Gov.UK figures. It clearly shows that "Cases" are going up, (well they will if you test more), but hospital admissions and deaths aren't following the same trend.

Thanks for the reply mate. Re deaths,  hope those figures are the way things stay. I think what’s confounding them however is that whilst deaths are lower than March, hospital admissions are higher, putting greater strain on the healthcare systems. The people being admitted are perhaps less vulnerable than in March and whilst NHS is apparently saving more of them from COVID, the knock-on effect on the treatment of other conditions is probably greater than March/April. This I think is why transmission has to be stamped on now.  

EDIT

Just noticed the admissions line on the above appears to disagree with the data I saw earlier, which I guess says it all about the data that's out there at present. Not easy to know whose data to trust? 

Edited October 18, 2020 by Beedster

[BassBunny]

30 minutes ago, Beedster said:

Thanks for the reply mate. Re deaths,  hope those figures are the way things stay. I think what’s confounding them however is that whilst deaths are lower than March, hospital admissions are higher, putting greater strain on the healthcare systems. The people being admitted are perhaps less vulnerable than in March and whilst NHS is apparently saving more of them from COVID, the knock-on effect on the treatment of other conditions is probably greater than March/April. This I think is why transmission has to be stamped on now.  

Agree. It appears that ICU's are getting fuller but according to NHE, they are more non - Covid patients in them, which is not the way the media are reporting it. In fact the number of Covid patients on ventilators now is very small indeed.

Regarding transmission, top of the tree is Education, which is no surprise as Schools/ Universities went back last month.

Hospitality, which obviously includes pubs accounts for only 4% of transmission so it seems crazy to shut pubs. I realise that students are younger and pretty resilient as far as Covid goes so looks like our leaders are happy to let it fester there but as the duty collected on Alcohol is huge it appears to be a strange decision to cut off that income when the Entertainment sector doesn't appear to be the major cause of spread. 

I've sauntered into a couple of pubs since they opened and found them to be incredibly well organised and doing everything they should.

At some point we have to get back to some sort of life as more people are now suffering from treatments cancelled than are from Covid.

Edited October 18, 2020 by BassBunny

[Beedster]

Just now, BassBunny said:

Agree. It appears that ICU's are getting fuller but according to NHE, they are more non - Covid patients in the, which is not the way the media are reporting it. In fact the number of Covid patients on ventilators now is very small indeed.

Regarding transmission, top of the tree is Education, which is no surprise as Schools/ Universities went back last month.

Hospitality, which obviously includes pubs accounts for only 4% of transmission so it seems crazy to shut pubs. I realise that students are younger and pretty resilient as far as Covid goes so looks like our leaders are happy to let it fester there but as the duty collected on Alcohol is huge it appears to be a strange decision to cut of that income when the Entertainment sector doesn't appear to be the major cause of spread. 

I've sauntered into a couple of pubs since they opened and found them to be incredibly well organised and doing everything they should.

At some point we have to get back to some sort of life as more people are now suffering from treatments cancelled than are from Covid.

Not the way either the journalists or the government are representing it!

All fair points mate, especially in relation to cancelled treatments, but that's the Catch 22 isn't it, if we get back to normal, there's the risk that the cancellation rate will become more serious.

I guess going back to the O/P, I still won't be either gigging or drinking in pubs for the foreseeable either way

[Happy Jack]

Thanks for that graph @BassBunny, hardly a surprise (to me anyway) but it makes the underlying position far clearer.

Speaking of which, do you think the ridiculous misuse of graphs employing logarithmic scales is likely to finally die out soon? They have been a great tool in support of Project Fear for the last few months, but presumably they must be discredited eventually?

 

[BassBunny]

8 minutes ago, Happy Jack said:

Thanks for that graph @BassBunny, hardly a surprise (to me anyway) but it makes the underlying position far clearer.

Speaking of which, do you think the ridiculous misuse of graphs employing logarithmic scales is likely to finally die out soon? They have been a great tool in support of Project Fear for the last few months, but presumably they must be discredited eventually?

 

I hope so. Also the graphs superimposed on each other with different scales for maximum effect. 🙂

[Beedster]

1 minute ago, BassBunny said:

I hope so. Also the graphs superimposed on each other with different scales for maximum effect. 🙂

You’re gonna put a whole generation of statisticians out of business

[TomasFlats]

This is the first sensible discussion I have seen on any social media platform on the topic of Covid-19. Informative, reasoned and mutually respectful. Thank you all for restoring my faith that society still has the ability to conduct a rational and sensible debate now and again.

Edited October 19, 2020 by TomasFlats

[gapiro]

23 hours ago, TomasFlats said:

This is the first sensible discussion I have seen on any social media platform on the topic of Covid-19. Informative, reasoned and mutually respectful. Thank you all for restoring my faith that society still has the ability to conduct a rational and sensible debate now and again.

QFT

Thing is i'd love to share some of this around the social medias but just know its not going to be the same in a different forum