Some VERY good news at last - live music back by the Spring?

[Newfoundfreedom]

Just now, PaulWarning said:

this is true, but I think it was mostly irresponsible youngsters, especially when the Universities came back, Freshers Week? but local boozers, on the whole were well managed and people behaved themselves

Not the footage I saw. Most I'd say we're in their 30's and 40's. 

[BassBunny]

Just now, PaulWarning said:

Freshers Week?

Funny that should come up. The area in Manchester that houses most students went stratospheric in September with Covid cases. 

Something like 1500+ students ended up being quarantined together and the numbers rose over the weeks.

By early December it had the lowest figures and at one point went 3 consecutive weeks without a reported case. It appears herd immunity kicked in there.

[geoham]

1 hour ago, PaulWarning said:

you are entitled to your opinion but the figures suggest something different, we went through the summer with schools shut and pubs open and the virus was under control, as soon as the education system went back, boom. You can't blame the cooler weather either, otherwise places like India and Brazil wouldn't have a problem

I agree that the obsession with having the schools 100% open for the new term was at least partly to blame. I live near a secondary school, and you should have seen the local takeaways, parks etc at lunchtimes. I know younger folk don't suffer symptoms as much as the older generation, but surely that puts them at high risk of being asymptomatic spreaders. 50 teenagers crammed around the door of the local kebab shop (which only allowed in one at time!) is basically the same as 50 households mixing. A more blended approach would have made more sense, particularly for those old enough to do their schoolwork from home without parental supervision. I suspect primary schools were much safer anyway, since they are smaller and kids don't move around as much.

However, I feel that universities is where the real problem came from. Students coming from every corner of the globe being crammed in to student accomodation - then being made to work remotely anyway. While those from some countries may have been required to isolate , it was basically unenforced. I do strongly believe that not having a proper quarantine process for those arriving from overseas was a huge mistake - have a a look at how New Zealand handled this. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by geoham

[taunton-hobbit]

Freshers Week in most universities means two things - sex and booze (& lots of both)

It's no wonder we get spikes (& std / gon / syph / preg / hiv / 

just an observation ........

😎

[ambient]

29 minutes ago, geoham said:

Any pubs allowing this type of thing should have been absolutely hammered.

However, the governments need to take some responsibility for the crowded streets. Mandating that all pubs closed at 10, 8 or 6 forced everyone to the streets at once. The usual approach of pubs closing at different times, and many folk leaving well ahead of closing time would have made much more sense. 

I think the problem with the pubs was the ‘eat out to help out’ scheme. It was attributed to the spike occurring in the autumn - apparently Johnson himself admitted it may have been responsible. The awful spoons pub by me was pretty packed out each time I walked past.

[chris_b]

32 minutes ago, Newfoundfreedom said:

Yup. I totally agree. Creating a bottle neck by forcing all the pubs to close at the same time was total lunacy. 

If you stagger the closing times you create a tidal wave of everyone from shutdown area #1 heading for a few more beers in shutdown area #2 etc. You're not going to get away from the bottle-neck which ever way you try to plan it.

[geoham]

2 minutes ago, chris_b said:

If you stagger the closing times you create a tidal wave of everyone from shutdown area #1 heading for a few more beers in shutdown area #2 etc. You're not going to get away from the bottle-neck which ever way you try to plan it.

If you mean a mandated staggered closing time, then yes, I'd a agree - although limiting capacities should control this inside the pubs at least. However, if pubs close when it's right for them then it's less likely to be a problem. When a pub is closed at 8 or 10, then that's when the majority of folk will leave. Contrasting with my local (pre lockdown) for example, it opened until 1am at the weekend., but another pub along the road only open until midnight. You'd have a few coming in from the midnight pub, but it got gradually quieter from around 11 anyway.

The other risk of early closing is that people have got in the mood to socialise and drink, and will be more likely to invite folk back afterwards. It's less likely to happen at say 1am, folk will be ready for bed. Mostly!

[ambient]

19 minutes ago, chris_b said:

If you stagger the closing times you create a tidal wave of everyone from shutdown area #1 heading for a few more beers in shutdown area #2 etc. You're not going to get away from the bottle-neck which ever way you try to plan it.

Yep. That’s what my dad said that would happen. The closing time where I grew up was 10:30pm. Yet in the adjoining Sutton Coldfield it was 11:00pm. You would get a crowd of people at 10:40 or thereabouts, walking the 500 metres from the pub that had just closed, to the pub that was going to be open for another twenty minutes.

[barkin]

37 minutes ago, ambient said:

I think the problem with the pubs was the ‘eat out to help out’ scheme. 

I did that quite a bit, and every time it was extremely well done. Felt much safer, to me, than my weekly shopping trip.

[Phil Starr]

The base of this is really very simple and always has been. This is a respiratory virus basically spread by breathing in viral particles that someone else has breathed out. It isn't safe to breathe in the air someone else has already shared. Of course washing hands and surfaces makes sense but you can't 'clean' the air. The public have been misled by politicians spreading the concept of Covid secure areas. Going into an enclosed space with an infected person is how we spread the disease however otherwise clean the area is. You can't have a pissing area in the corner of a swimming pool or a smoking corner of a crowded pub without sharing something unpleasant. Outdoors the air dilutes smells and viruses fairly quickly and the evidence is that there is little transmission.

It has never been Covid safe to be indoors with other people and the more people and the smaller the space the more dangerous it is. The most dangerous thing is to be with young people who are more likely to be asymptomatically infectious. Your risk of spreading the disease increases logarythmically with the number of contacts you have.

Schools, hospitality/mass indoor entertainment,  shopping, public transport and indoor work are the biggest spreaders and you can't make them totally safe. The other myth is that disease is mainly spread at home, you can only spread disease at home if someone takes it home, these things aren't independent events.

Our government policy of trying to keep the economy going by managing an 'acceptable' death rate has failed as it always would have and has merely prolonged the emergency and led to an increased death rate. to be fair most of the 'Western' countries have followed the same policies with similar results. Eastern and Australasian countries have made different decisions with better outcomes. It finally seems that with hospitals on their knees and death rates soaring that governments in Europe including our own are starting to 'get' it. 

Our media, democracy and our personal levels of education have let us down and collectively we have failed to show the political will to deal with this. All we can do now is to keep restrictions in place and monitor the infection rates as we gradually relax them. If we keep the infection rate below one then the disease will have a halving time, the better we behave and the tighter the restrictions the sooner we will be free of this thing. The economy and any mental health issues aren't helped by prolonging this or increasing the death toll.

[ambient]

6 minutes ago, Phil Starr said:

The base of this is really very simple and always has been. This is a respiratory virus basically spread by breathing in viral particles that someone else has breathed out. It isn't safe to breathe in the air someone else has already shared. Of course washing hands and surfaces makes sense but you can't 'clean' the air. The public have been misled by politicians spreading the concept of Covid secure areas. Going into an enclosed space with an infected person is how we spread the disease however otherwise clean the area is. You can't have a pissing area in the corner of a swimming pool or a smoking corner of a crowded pub without sharing something unpleasant. Outdoors the air dilutes smells and viruses fairly quickly and the evidence is that there is little transmission.

It has never been Covid safe to be indoors with other people and the more people and the smaller the space the more dangerous it is. The most dangerous thing is to be with young people who are more likely to be asymptomatically infectious. Your risk of spreading the disease increases logarythmically with the number of contacts you have.

Schools, hospitality/mass indoor entertainment,  shopping, public transport and indoor work are the biggest spreaders and you can't make them totally safe. The other myth is that disease is mainly spread at home, you can only spread disease at home if someone takes it home, these things aren't independent events.

Our government policy of trying to keep the economy going by managing an 'acceptable' death rate has failed as it always would have and has merely prolonged the emergency and led to an increased death rate. to be fair most of the 'Western' countries have followed the same policies with similar results. Eastern and Australasian countries have made different decisions with better outcomes. It finally seems that with hospitals on their knees and death rates soaring that governments in Europe including our own are starting to 'get' it. 

Our media, democracy and our personal levels of education have let us down and collectively we have failed to show the political will to deal with this. All we can do now is to keep restrictions in place and monitor the infection rates as we gradually relax them. If we keep the infection rate below one then the disease will have a halving time, the better we behave and the tighter the restrictions the sooner we will be free of this thing. The economy and any mental health issues aren't helped by prolonging this or increasing the death toll.

This!

[Al Krow]

Key strategy adopted by Australia has been to massively stop travel into Australia to prevent importing Covid.

When a few countries suggested stopping flights from China a year back they were labelled xenophobic by the Chinese (and their WHO sycophants) who both have a lot to answer for.

[Woodinblack]

8 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

Key strategy adopted by Australia has been to massively stop travel into Australia to prevent importing Covid.

And it worked pretty well, but only because they also had a test and trace that was run by people who were qualified to do it, rather than someones hunting buddy

 

8 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

When a few countries suggested stopping flights from China a year back they were labelled xenophobic by the Chinese (and their WHO sycophants) who both have a lot to answer for.

Without getting into your WHO sycophants conspiracy theory, by the time people suggested stopping flights from China, the virus was already everywhere.

[Woodinblack]

1 hour ago, ambient said:

I think the problem with the pubs was the ‘eat out to help out’ scheme. It was attributed to the spike occurring in the autumn - apparently Johnson himself admitted it may have been responsible. The awful spoons pub by me was pretty packed out each time I walked past.

I agree - seemed crazy to me. Don't go to pubs.. oh now go to pubs and we will give you some money to do it.

Looking at the figures, yes, schools opening was bad but it was going up before that.

[stingrayPete1977]

37 minutes ago, barkin said:

I did that quite a bit, and every time it was extremely well done. Felt much safer, to me, than my weekly shopping trip.

Same here, we went out almost every night and it was run really well.

I suppose some places were full of "eat out to get whizzed down the pub with your mates" which wasn't the idea, we arrived just the two of us, ate, then left.

[Newfoundfreedom]

Here's a short clip of a video my cousin posted on Facebook in August last year, taken in Liverpool during one of the easings from lockdown. I'll say no more. 

[Cuzzie]

Well Australia seemed to relax the rules of entry to allow Tennis players in, thereby blocking actual nationals coming home......nicely done.

With all that is said you have to take on board, but just country geography (island vs mainland, thoroughfare hub vs final destination) but population alongside green space.

New Zealand does well because, you go if you are going, and they have an outside space and are not crammed Cheek to cheek like we are in the U.K.

I think More people in London than in the whole of Canada, Bonkers 

[Cuzzie]

Covid: 400-person wedding party in Stamford Hill broken up by police https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-london-55764673
 

sneaky suspicion stuff like this will be the cause........

[BassBunny]

3 hours ago, Phil Starr said:

The base of this is really very simple and always has been. This is a respiratory virus basically spread by breathing in viral particles that someone else has breathed out. It isn't safe to breathe in the air someone else has already shared. Of course washing hands and surfaces makes sense but you can't 'clean' the air. The public have been misled by politicians spreading the concept of Covid secure areas. Going into an enclosed space with an infected person is how we spread the disease however otherwise clean the area is. You can't have a pissing area in the corner of a swimming pool or a smoking corner of a crowded pub without sharing something unpleasant. Outdoors the air dilutes smells and viruses fairly quickly and the evidence is that there is little transmission.

It has never been Covid safe to be indoors with other people and the more people and the smaller the space the more dangerous it is. The most dangerous thing is to be with young people who are more likely to be asymptomatically infectious. Your risk of spreading the disease increases logarythmically with the number of contacts you have.

Schools, hospitality/mass indoor entertainment,  shopping, public transport and indoor work are the biggest spreaders and you can't make them totally safe. The other myth is that disease is mainly spread at home, you can only spread disease at home if someone takes it home, these things aren't independent events.

Our government policy of trying to keep the economy going by managing an 'acceptable' death rate has failed as it always would have and has merely prolonged the emergency and led to an increased death rate. to be fair most of the 'Western' countries have followed the same policies with similar results. Eastern and Australasian countries have made different decisions with better outcomes. It finally seems that with hospitals on their knees and death rates soaring that governments in Europe including our own are starting to 'get' it. 

Our media, democracy and our personal levels of education have let us down and collectively we have failed to show the political will to deal with this. All we can do now is to keep restrictions in place and monitor the infection rates as we gradually relax them. If we keep the infection rate below one then the disease will have a halving time, the better we behave and the tighter the restrictions the sooner we will be free of this thing. The economy and any mental health issues aren't helped by prolonging this or increasing the death toll.

Spot On Phil.

[odysseus]

5 hours ago, taunton-hobbit said:

Freshers Week in most universities means two things - sex and booze (& lots of both)

It's no wonder we get spikes (& std / gon / syph / preg / hiv / 

just an observation ........

😎

Damn right.  *misty-eyed reverie ensues....* 🤓

[ambient]

2 hours ago, Cuzzie said:

Well Australia seemed to relax the rules of entry to allow Tennis players in, thereby blocking actual nationals coming home......nicely done.

With all that is said you have to take on board, but just country geography (island vs mainland, thoroughfare hub vs final destination) but population alongside green space.

New Zealand does well because, you go if you are going, and they have an outside space and are not crammed Cheek to cheek like we are in the U.K.

I think More people in London than in the whole of Canada, Bonkers 

That’s why it’s ridiculous to compare us to Sweden, as many have.

[Staggering on]

3 hours ago, Cuzzie said:

Well Australia seemed to relax the rules of entry to allow Tennis players in, thereby blocking actual nationals coming home......nicely done.

With all that is said you have to take on board, but just country geography (island vs mainland, thoroughfare hub vs final destination) but population alongside green space.

New Zealand does well because, you go if you are going, and they have an outside space and are not crammed Cheek to cheek like we are in the U.K.

I think More people in London than in the whole of Canada, Bonkers 

Actually London has about 9,000,000 and Canada is 37,000,000 but as you point out density is the real problem. London's population density is about 5600 per km2 and Canada's is 3.9 per km2 for the whole country. Comparing cities we have 4500 per km2 in Toronto and our highest density is Vancouver at 5300.

I live in a very rural area of Northern Ontario where the density is very low and the number of covid cases is small. A major issue here is visitors from the hot spots in the south coming up here. Our current lockdown is based on "STAY HOME" (government's mantra) but it isn't being enforced so we are getting a bit nervous out here in the boonies.🇨🇦

 

 

[ambient]

I think when you see comments like this, from Chris Whitty, you can pretty much write off gigging for the foreseeable future - copied and pasted from the Guardian’s live feed.

Q. Can those who have been vaccinated mix together?

Whitty says even with a very effective vaccine, there’s a period of time straight after where there’s no effect for 2 or 3 weeks.

That protection won’t even be complete with two vaccines, he says.

At the moment, a very large proportion of people you come into contact with could have the virus, he says - on average 1 in 55, or 1 in 35 in London.

There is a residual risk even if you’ve had the vaccine, he says.

The rates of infections need to come right down by staying at home while others get vaccinated, he says.

Vallance says we still don’t know how effective the vaccines are at stopping you from catching the virus or passing the virus on.

It’s very important not to assume you can’t catch it or pass it on after vaccination, he says.

7m ago 17:21

They are taking questions from the public now.

Q. Will the delay in getting a second dose of the vaccine reduce levels of protection and if so how much?

Whitty says the first dose gives the great majority of the protection, but the second increases that and makes it longer lasting too.

The idea is to double the number of people that can get vaccinated, he says.

Because our major limitation is the number of vaccines the UK has to give, half the number of people would have been vaccinated in this very risky period if we hadn’t extended the time, he says.

Once you get protection initially it lasts a reasonable period of time, he says, likely up to five months, like if you had the virus.

 

 

[Cuzzie]

32 minutes ago, Staggering on said:

Actually London has about 9,000,000 and Canada is 37,000,000 but as you point out density is the real problem. London's population density is about 5600 per km2 and Canada's is 3.9 per km2 for the whole country. Comparing cities we have 4500 per km2 in Toronto and our highest density is Vancouver at 5300.

I live in a very rural area of Northern Ontario where the density is very low and the number of covid cases is small. A major issue here is visitors from the hot spots in the south coming up here. Our current lockdown is based on "STAY HOME" (government's mantra) but it isn't being enforced so we are getting a bit nervous out here in the boonies.🇨🇦

 

 

Apologies - sniping a type between work bits and bobs I meant U.K. population - but the London density I knew was bad, but those figures are startling.

The U.K. fits into Canada about 40 times and into Texas just under 3 times.

Loved the time I spent in Vancouver and BC

[Phil Starr]

just been on the phone with my friend who is a doctor in A&E. She's just treated a 55 year old in difficulties who contracted COVID by sharing a car with someone. 'We only shared a journey for 15 minutes so we didn't think masks would be necessary'!!!

You can't make it up.