Some VERY good news at last - live music back by the Spring?

[ambient]

The Israelis are reporting that the vaccine doesn’t appear to be as effective as claimed, certainly not with just one dose. They’re also reporting people catching it despite having been vaccinated - not surprising given that it only offers between 30 and 50% protection.

This is from their health minister on the Andrew Marr show earlier:

‘First dose of Pfizer shot does not immediately prevent Covid infection, confirms Israeli health minister.’

‘We’re just in the beginning of the campaign, we unfortunately do see cases that after getting the first dose, people do get sick, get the coronavirus.’

This is the important bit, and the part I hope our government takes note of - hopefully they have learned their lesson from last summer - I believe they might have done, and realised that trying to open everything up, encouraging people to visit pubs and restaurants seeded a lot of the problems we currently have. This adds to my belief that allowing live music - certainly live music indoors - will be one of the last things they’ll allow.

‘Vaccination is not a panacea, Coronavirus is still with us, and we’ll have to live with this reality for a long time.’

Personally, as much as I’d love to be performing and playing with other people - it’s been a huge part of my life, it really is the only thing I’m any good at - but there’s absolutely no way I’m going to, until I know that it’s safe and that I’m not risking my health, and more importantly the health of my parents.

[Newfoundfreedom]

One possible bonus (or not, depending on how you look at it) is that after this, karaoke is pretty much dead. No way are people going to be sharing microphones with spitting drunks from now on. 

So when live entertainment does eventually return, it might mean more venues hiring actual musicians instead of cheap karaoke nights. 

 

 

[Andrew Fov]

Pub Karaoke was still going on summer 2020 in Wakefield; I was quite surprised.....well maybe not. I do wonder what other businesses will be affected; small new businesses you don't usually think about like those retro arcade centres; all those different hands on the game controls.

I also wonder about Amsterdam with all it's backpackers from around the globe,sharing spliffs and pipes in coffee shops and what of the prostitution scene?. Maybe now's the big push to phasing out that stuff in Holland.

 

[EBS_freak]

8 minutes ago, Andrew Fov said:

I also wonder about Amsterdam with all it's backpackers from around the globe,sharing spliffs and pipes in coffee shops and what of the prostitution scene?. Maybe now's the big push to phasing out that stuff in Holland.

 

Why would would you want to push it underground and make sex workers subject to potential abuse?

What gives you the assumed right to take a person's livelihood just because it is not palatable for you...?

Presumably you also realise that the back packing and scene that Amsterdam is a keystone for tourism and it's economy...? If anything, the regulation that Amsterdam offers, provides greater safety to those that choose to partake. Close down the coffee shops and the spliffs will be cut with any old stinky poo and by closing the red light district, the trade won't disappear - just pushed into an unregulated underground scene.

[Ian McFly]

49 minutes ago, ambient said:

The Israelis are reporting that the vaccine doesn’t appear to be as effective as claimed, certainly not with just one dose. They’re also reporting people catching it despite having been vaccinated - not surprising given that it only offers between 30 and 50% protection.

This is from their health minister on the Andrew Marr show earlier:

‘First dose of Pfizer shot does not immediately prevent Covid infection, confirms Israeli health minister.’

‘We’re just in the beginning of the campaign, we unfortunately do see cases that after getting the first dose, people do get sick, get the coronavirus.’

This is the important bit, and the part I hope our government takes note of - hopefully they have learned their lesson from last summer - I believe they might have done, and realised that trying to open everything up, encouraging people to visit pubs and restaurants seeded a lot of the problems we currently have. This adds to my belief that allowing live music - certainly live music indoors - will be one of the last things they’ll allow.

‘Vaccination is not a panacea, Coronavirus is still with us, and we’ll have to live with this reality for a long time.’

Personally, as much as I’d love to be performing and playing with other people - it’s been a huge part of my life, it really is the only thing I’m any good at - but there’s absolutely no way I’m going to, until I know that it’s safe and that I’m not risking my health, and more importantly the health of my parents.

Scaremongering.... it’s known that one dose is not enough, otherwise they wouldn’t recommend two! So claiming “oh it’s not efficient, people are still getting sick” is pure scaremongering. It might be facts, I’m not disputing that, but that is to be expected. Full (-ish) immunity is expected weeks after two jabs. 
 

We’re only a few we’re after the first jab, of course there’s a risk... but claiming “it’s not as effective as though initially” is misleading. 

[Woodinblack]

31 minutes ago, Andrew Fov said:

I also wonder about Amsterdam with all it's backpackers from around the globe,sharing spliffs and pipes in coffee shops and what of the prostitution scene?. Maybe now's the big push to phasing out that stuff in Holland.

Amsterdam was built on 'that stuff'. I read something about trying to redirect tourism a bit to manage their numbers. It is crazy the amount of people there last time I went compared to first time (which would have been in the 70s). They could do with spreading their tourism around the Netherlands - there is quite a lot of the rest of the country.

[taunton-hobbit]

5 minutes ago, Woodinblack said:

Amsterdam was built on 'that stuff'. I read something about trying to redirect tourism a bit to manage their numbers. It is crazy the amount of people there last time I went compared to first time (which would have been in the 70s). They could do with spreading their tourism around the Netherlands - there is quite a lot of the rest of the country.

The UK has being trying to do this forever, but London is still the main visitor destination, as far as I'm aware.

😎

[Woodinblack]

Just now, taunton-hobbit said:

The UK has being trying to do this forever, but London is still the main visitor destination, as far as I'm aware.

😎

This is true.

Although it is hard to move around Bath in (a normal) summer, with the large number of Chinese tourists in the last few years, so I guess that is now on the list.

[EBS_freak]

1 minute ago, Woodinblack said:

This is true.

Although it is hard to move around Bath in (a normal) summer, with the large number of Chinese tourists in the last few years, so I guess that is now on the list.

Lichfield is a hotspot... for such a small area, it brings in loads of "outsiders" due to the unique 3 spire cathedral, it's links with Shakespeare through Garrick and being the birthplace of the author of the first dictionary. Who's have thought there would be such interest from the American and Asian communities. Makes "nipping into town" quite the ordeal in summer.

[Andrew Fov]

30 minutes ago, EBS_freak said:

Why would would you want to push it underground and make sex workers subject to potential abuse?

What gives you the assumed right to take a person's livelihood just because it is not palatable for you...?

Presumably you also realise that the back packing and scene that Amsterdam is a keystone for tourism and it's economy...? If anything, the regulation that Amsterdam offers, provides greater safety to those that choose to partake. Close down the coffee shops and the spliffs will be cut with any old stinky poo and by closing the red light district, the trade won't disappear - just pushed into an unregulated underground scene.

I wouldn't!

I don't! ...and didn't state my stance on such matters.

I was only wondering, no offence intended.

[PaulWarning]

apparently Salisbury has a very nice Cathedral that,  Russians in particular, enjoy visiting 

[yorks5stringer]

1 hour ago, ambient said:

The Israelis are reporting that the vaccine doesn’t appear to be as effective as claimed, certainly not with just one dose. They’re also reporting people catching it despite having been vaccinated - not surprising given that it only offers between 30 and 50% protection.

This is from their health minister on the Andrew Marr show earlier:

‘First dose of Pfizer shot does not immediately prevent Covid infection, confirms Israeli health minister.’

‘We’re just in the beginning of the campaign, we unfortunately do see cases that after getting the first dose, people do get sick, get the coronavirus.’

This is the important bit, and the part I hope our government takes note of - hopefully they have learned their lesson from last summer - I believe they might have done, and realised that trying to open everything up, encouraging people to visit pubs and restaurants seeded a lot of the problems we currently have. This adds to my belief that allowing live music - certainly live music indoors - will be one of the last things they’ll allow.

‘Vaccination is not a panacea, Coronavirus is still with us, and we’ll have to live with this reality for a long time.’

Personally, as much as I’d love to be performing and playing with other people - it’s been a huge part of my life, it really is the only thing I’m any good at - but there’s absolutely no way I’m going to, until I know that it’s safe and that I’m not risking my health, and more importantly the health of my parents.

As I said over a couple of weeks ago, the vaccine does not stop you catching it, it only reduces the severity of the symptoms ( and keeps you, in many cases from using up an NHS bed). Lots of people do not seem to have understood this and think the vaccine is the golden bullet that will enable life to resume as normal. It ain't....

[PaulWarning]

6 minutes ago, yorks5stringer said:

As I said over a couple of weeks ago, the vaccine does not stop you catching it, it only reduces the severity of the symptoms ( and keeps you, in many cases from using up an NHS bed). Lots of people do not seem to have understood this and think the vaccine is the golden bullet that will enable life to resume as normal. It ain't....

if it stops people having to go into hospital and dying why can't we just treat it like normal flu? life doesn't stop for that

[ambient]

55 minutes ago, Ian McFly said:

Scaremongering.... it’s known that one dose is not enough, otherwise they wouldn’t recommend two! So claiming “oh it’s not efficient, people are still getting sick” is pure scaremongering. It might be facts, I’m not disputing that, but that is to be expected. Full (-ish) immunity is expected weeks after two jabs. 
 

We’re only a few we’re after the first jab, of course there’s a risk... but claiming “it’s not as effective as though initially” is misleading. 

It’s neither misleading nor scaremongering. They’re telling people the facts - I had to tell a relative of mine that just because he’s had the vaccination, that doesn’t mean he’s immune. I’m aware of other people having the same conversation with their relatives. This is mainly I suspect due to some of the newspaper headlines.

If you look at everything the health minister said in my quote, he mentioned that protection might only be in the low to mid 30% range, which is far lower than the low to mid 50% range, originally reported.

I don’t see how stating researched figures can be construed as misleading?

Edited January 24, 2021 by ambient

[EBS_freak]

4 minutes ago, PaulWarning said:

if it stops people having to go into hospital and dying why can't we just treat it like normal flu? life doesn't stop for that

Because at the moment, it impacts more people than the normal flu. The idea of the vaccine is to make it less of a killer to most people - in that you can still get ill but the chance of death and developing long covid are much reduced. We can't just get on with life at the moment - because not enough people have had the vaccine for the virus' impact to be reduced enough to not be a widespread killer. 

[Cuzzie]

4 minutes ago, PaulWarning said:

if it stops people having to go into hospital and dying why can't we just treat it like normal flu? life doesn't stop for that

In some respects that is the goal, but as a result of a vaccination programme - but you have to consider that Flu kills in flu season, then if we have Covid flu as well, thats an additional burden on the system - they are 2 different entities, then there is a possibility of catching them simultaneously or sequentially.

Habits will probably have to change

[ambient]

5 minutes ago, PaulWarning said:

if it stops people having to go into hospital and dying why can't we just treat it like normal flu? life doesn't stop for that

Flu doesn’t kill nearly 100,000 people in ten months in the UK. The 2017/18 flu season deaths were 1,700. Flu also doesn’t tie up virtually the entire NHS acute care beds - bear in mind that most elective and regular treatment has stopped.

[EBS_freak]

2 minutes ago, ambient said:

Flu doesn’t kill nearly 100,000 people in ten months in the UK. The 2017/18 flu season deaths were 1,700. Flu also doesn’t tie up virtually the entire NHS acute care beds - bear in mind that most elective and regular treatment has stopped.

Shh now. You are almost talking sense.

[Cuzzie]

If you look at the demographics - we know Flu can kill across the range, but in general adversely affects a younger population, we know COVID adversely affects an older generation with the average death age being our 80year olds - probably more with co existing co morbidities as well as race, but flu will also affect these people (possibly not race as much).

We are starting to get a spread across avast rage of the population - habits, hygiene etc  will have to change across the board

 

[PaulWarning]

4 minutes ago, ambient said:

Flu doesn’t kill nearly 100,000 people in ten months in the UK. The 2017/18 flu season deaths were 1,700. Flu also doesn’t tie up virtually the entire NHS acute care beds - bear in mind that most elective and regular treatment has stopped.

I did say the if it stops people having to go into hospital and dying, which will obviously only happen when the people at most risk have been vaccinated, which hopefully one dose will do

[Cuzzie]

4 minutes ago, ambient said:

Flu doesn’t kill nearly 100,000 people in ten months in the UK. The 2017/18 flu season deaths were 1,700. Flu also doesn’t tie up virtually the entire NHS acute care beds - bear in mind that most elective and regular treatment has stopped.

This is the key - its not just Covid,its the knock on - some places cancer care is stopped. People with tumours that need big operations and an ITU/HDU bed cannot get it because beds are being taken up, and a shortage of nursing staff looking after lots of people across the board be it wards, doing vaccinations whatever etc.

Routine operations cancelled - Mr/Mrs Miggins with a dodgy hip/knee cannot get it replaced, falls over, breaks a hip,now needs emergency surgery, gets it hopefully does not contract Covid, DVT etc  in hospital (but it is a risk) and leaves in a worse position that with elective surgery and life is impacted for them.

People with eminently treatable conditions sitting on them because of fear of going to hospital - end up worse.

This generation of children have had a hammer to their education (my children have essentially had no effective school for a year now and rising) how are their prospects moving forward? Maybe they wanted to do nursing but miss out on the grades due to this and henceforth less nurses to care for people and we are already stretched - It’s endless potentially, but i still maintain hope

 

[ambient]

Just now, PaulWarning said:

I did say the if it stops people having to go into hospital and dying, which will obviously only happen when the people at most risk have been vaccinated, which hopefully one dose will do

Yes, they also need to be sensible, and stick to the advice regarding hand washing, face coverings and social distancing if they go out - but really they should stay in as much as possible.

[ambient]

I had flu in January 2018 - in fact according to my Facebook memories, today is the second anniversary of me returning to uni after recovering from it. I don’t ever remember feeling so ill. I’m fairly young, very fit and extremely healthy, it was weeks later though until I felt anything like normal. I should imagine if you had flu, then contracted Covid at the same time, or immediately after, then even for a young heathy person, it would be extremely serious. 

[ambient]

1 hour ago, Andrew Fov said:

Pub Karaoke was still going on summer 2020 in Wakefield; I was quite surprised.....well maybe not. I do wonder what other businesses will be affected; small new businesses you don't usually think about like those retro arcade centres; all those different hands on the game controls.

I also wonder about Amsterdam with all it's backpackers from around the globe,sharing spliffs and pipes in coffee shops and what of the prostitution scene?. Maybe now's the big push to phasing out that stuff in Holland.

 

They are thinking about banning non-Dutch nationals from the coffee shops.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jan/11/foreigners-face-ban-from-amsterdams-cannabis-cafes

[Al Krow]

From detailed analysis of ONS figures: 

Looking at 2nd wave deaths in the UK (taking week 45 = Nov 2nd as approximate base line): 85.1% of deaths have occurred in the 70+ age group.

Lockdown 1 without a vaccine took 3.5 months from March 23rd to July 4th to get the rolling average weekly death rate from Covid-19 to around 50 or less.

Most of the 70+ age group should be vaccinated over the next 3 to 4 months, if not sooner, and combined with current lockdown measures and moving out of winter should, together, make a very big difference.

Whilst it's anecdotal / "best guess" territory, folk who have to put substantial sums of their savings on the line and will have done a fair bit of homework, are not shying away from investing in pubs right now. Check the Mitchells & Butlers' share price since the beginning of Nov if you're interested.

The above is the basis for my optimism / "educated best guess" (which I will happily admit it obviously can't be anything more than, at this stage) for the end of May pub / live music reopening.

Let's hope for the sake of the music and hospitality industry, both of which I am very much deeply involved in, that optimism proves to be nearer the mark than some of the doom on this thread. Time will, of course, tell. 

Edited January 24, 2021 by Al Krow