Some VERY good news at last - live music back by the Spring?

[krispn]

This new type of vaccine is very exciting and the ability to restructure a virus at the dna/rna level to help our bodies easily beat it is clearly where science is developing in the combat of new and unknown virus/pathogens. However for a lot of people these developments with this type of technology poses some/many questions and I can understand someone who doesn’t feel entirely comfortable by the speed at which this new type of vaccine can be brought to market or without what otherwise has become the norm of exhaustive clinical trials with a large data set and importantly the follow up data over many years to track side effects.

Being ‘for’ a vaccine doesn’t make us gullible nor does being cautious about one a conspiracy theorist make! The difficulty many folks have is the inevitable  involvement of Government, big pharma and how information is disseminated in what has become the fake news/agenda driven news cycle. We’re told to listen to the science but then we see the Government ignore the scientific data/advice and we have a little head scratch! We can all express our opinions on what we think and if we will or won’t take a vaccine but as ever cautious optimism isn’t a bad thing. I’d rather be a cautious optimist in this era than selling the Trumpian ‘we’re turning the corner’ lines which defy the real world stats. 
 

 

[Cuzzie]

@krispn have you actually coined a new term in Trumpian?

Trumpishness?

Trumposity?

Edited November 17, 2020 by Cuzzie

[Woodinblack]

4 minutes ago, Cuzzie said:

@krispn have you actually coined a new term in Trumpian?

No, its quite a common expression for the sort of behaviour of people who want to ignore facts because the fiction is more comforting.

[krispn]

I just meant it in relation to farts 

[Cuzzie]

Trumpian often leads to Dumpian

[BassBunny]

On 15/11/2020 at 12:05, Cuzzie said:

What will be interesting this Winter will be the proportion of hospital admissions (and unfortunately deaths which no one wants) normal winter flu/virus vs C-19 so we can have an accurate view of how it/they behave or interact. Let’s hope stats are accurately recorded to enable this and not just ‘assumed’

Seasonal Flu has disappeared apparently. Even the WHO haven't recorded a case in months.

Since Oct 8th the NHE and ONS figures include Flu with Covid which makes the numbers even more unreliable.

[BassBunny]

19 hours ago, Basinski said:

In August the EU reached a deal with Moderna to buy an initial 80 million doses of its vaccine with the option to buy 80 million more. The UK could have been part of the EU's purchasing programme, but declined. Moderna have just announced that their vaccine has almost 95% efficiency.

Presumably before any potential UK doses are delivered, Moderna would have to prioritize delivering on existing commitments to the EU, and any others who have already signed contracts to buy up vaccine stock?

Another rip-roaring UK government success story, particularly when considering the added benefits the Moderna vaccine is likely to have, being much easier to store/distribute that the Pfizer vaccine which requires storage at -70°C

The EU may have reached a deal but that doesn't guarantee them getting them. We were asked to join the EU Ventilator purchase scheme and decided not to. The EU haven't bought any yet as they can't decide how much to pay for them. 

The F1 community in the UK got together and have built tons, re-engineering them on the way to make them more efficient. 

[Cuzzie]

5 minutes ago, BassBunny said:

Seasonal Flu has disappeared apparently. Even the WHO haven't recorded a case in months.

Since Oct 8th the NHE and ONS figures include Flu with Covid which makes the numbers even more unreliable.

Crass to say the least

[Basinski]

4 minutes ago, BassBunny said:

The EU may have reached a deal but that doesn't guarantee them getting them. We were asked to join the EU Ventilator purchase scheme and decided not to. The EU haven't bought any yet as they can't decide how much to pay for them. 

The F1 community in the UK got together and have built tons, re-engineering them on the way to make them more efficient. 

I wasn’t talking about ventilators.

[BassBunny]

Just now, Basinski said:

I wasn’t talking about ventilators.

I know but the same principles will apply. They agree to buy something and then decide how much they want to pay.

[Basinski]

11 minutes ago, BassBunny said:

Seasonal Flu has disappeared apparently. Even the WHO haven't recorded a case in months.

Since Oct 8th the NHE and ONS figures include Flu with Covid which makes the numbers even more unreliable.

Flu is quite seasonal, occurring usually between December and March. Maybe that explains it?

They’re including both, but showing them as separate figures,. It’s so the figures can be compared for statistical purposes. They’re two separate illnesses - despite what ill-informed sceptics might say.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/deathsduetocovid19comparedwithdeathsfrominfluenzaandpneumonia

[Cuzzie]

I think I misread - it’s only Crass if they do not separate flu from covid.

Separation accurately is key to know rates, how they behave, mortality, morbidity, hospital burden, length of stay, ages etc.

[BassBunny]

11 minutes ago, Cuzzie said:

I think I misread - it’s only Crass if they do not separate flu from covid.

Separation accurately is key to know rates, how they behave, mortality, morbidity, hospital burden, length of stay, ages etc.

Totally agree. It is absolutely crucial that everything is recorded and presented/analysed accurately, that is not happening.

[jimmyb625]

The flu and covid figures are still recorded separately, it's the report itself which is combined. 

[taunton-hobbit]

.............. shouldn't be - it muddies the waters ..........

(ONS are good at doing that)

😎

[Dad3353]

5 hours ago, Basinski said:

Flu is quite seasonal,...

Thanks for the link; very interesting. 

[odysseus]

6 hours ago, Cuzzie said:

Trumpian often leads to Dumpian

Sit on the bog and hedge your bets.... 😁

[Cuzzie]

51 minutes ago, odysseus said:

Sit on the bog and hedge your bets.... 😁

Only peace i get in my house

[Al Krow]

On 10/11/2020 at 16:06, Al Krow said:

... but I'm not sure it would require a huge amount of training to up-skill unemployed graduates / school leavers who are facing a brutal jobs market to administer injections under the supervision of a qualified nurse?  If need be, we can deploy 40,000 military personnel - a plan that is already underway in relation to mass testing. 

On 10/11/2020 at 20:00, Dad3353 said:

I had to learn how to inject myself with daily insulin doses, as a life saver. It took me all of five minutes, a few years ago now, given the right equipment, and I've been doing it ever since with no problems, despite onset of old age. I reckon most ordinary folks could get trained up for vaccinating quickly and easily. Here in France, it's the pharmacists that carry out flu shots. Are there no pharmacists in the UK able to assist..? 

"St John's Ambulance is training up 30,000 volunteers to help the NHS administer the jabs"

I appreciate this won't be what the half glass empty brigade, who seem all too happy to put this country and it's democratically government down at every opportunity, will want to hear.

Of course mistakes are going to be made along the way - it's not like there's a play-book for dealing with this current global pandemic. But personally, I believe in the resilience and capability of our plucky nation to get through this Covid-19 crisis, together.

[Basinski]

1 hour ago, Al Krow said:

"St John's Ambulance is training up 30,000 volunteers to help the NHS administer the jabs"

I appreciate this won't be what the half glass empty brigade, who seem all too happy to put this country and it's democratically government down at every opportunity, will want to hear.

Of course mistakes are going to be made along the way - it's not like there's a play-book for dealing with this current global pandemic. But personally, I believe in the resilience and capability of our plucky nation to get through this Covid-19 crisis, together.

I’ve not come across anyone since this started who doesn’t want to hear genuine good news. I’m positive that everyone will be only too glad when this is all over, and we return to some semblance of normality. I don’t class myself as a pessimist, more a realist. If I hear about a potential vaccine, I don’t automatically start making plans based on the assumption that everything will be fine and dandy in three or four months. In fact the various authorities are now pushing back the timeline for the vaccines. There’s also understandably going to be sections of society prioritised, that doesn’t mean everyone else can carry on as normal.
You’re also meant to learn from a mistake, not repeat it ad infinitum. Most of the criticism has been well deserved - how many policy u-turns now?

[krispn]

5 hours ago, Al Krow said:

"St John's Ambulance is training up 30,000 volunteers to help the NHS administer the jabs"

I appreciate this won't be what the half glass empty brigade, who seem all too happy to put this country and it's democratically government down at every opportunity, will want to hear.

Of course mistakes are going to be made along the way - it's not like there's a play-book for dealing with this current global pandemic. But personally, I believe in the resilience and capability of our plucky nation to get through this Covid-19 crisis, together.

I’m sure this was said with a proud tear spilling down the cheek and the roar of Spirfire’s overhead 😀

Thing is though you’d think that our democratically elected leaders would have had a pandemic playbook of sorts. We have them for terror attacks and other ‘disasters’ except leaves on the tracks and a flurry of snow in mid January. Sure we can allow for the initial WTF moment as a national disaster hits but there should be a national strategy which considers what action should be taken and what resources are needed in this type of scenario. That’s what I expect as a voter. 
 

I think it’s great that there’s a been a shred of common sense employed here when looking at the practicalities involved in the deployment and administration of a nationwide vaccination programme. However I can’t help but think back to when the figures were confidently announced from lecturn’s suggesting 100,000 tests would be carried out daily and the ensuing shortfall in numbers and strain on testing facilities. A bit more realism and less politicking might have been a wiser choice with hindsight.

Anyway training... It’s not that hard to ‘train’ someone to insert a swab into the nostril but we were left with a massive shortfall in testing based on the toll it took on a system which was unprepared with the sheer magnitude of the task at hand, no one appeared to ask the lab’s what their capacity was before confidently throwing out the big numbers, if the reagents needed were available in such quantities etc. There were some red faces and people were made to look foolish because they wanted to project numbers that they were always going to struggle to hit due to many factors...before then doubling those targets.

Much in the same way as with a nasal swab it’s not terribly complicated to administer an intramuscular or sub cut injection but unlike the self administration (of insulin?) as pointed out earlier there are some other small things to consider when administering a mass vaccination programm to the public such as anaphylaxis management and the administration of emergency medication. It’s not an insurmountable task but there is some nuance to these things which add’s to the complexity in relation to training and supplies chains. It’s not just pinching the deltoid or the belly fat and sticking in a needle.

If this has been a bit long winded

TL:DR version We can bemoan the shortcomings because we’ve seen them first hand time and again. We can also be optimistic that they’ll get it right eventually but many of us remain cautious. Oh and don’t forget to vote! 

 
 

[Cuzzie]

7 hours ago, Al Krow said:

"St John's Ambulance is training up 30,000 volunteers to help the NHS administer the jabs"

I appreciate this won't be what the half glass empty brigade, who seem all too happy to put this country and it's democratically government down at every opportunity, will want to hear.

Of course mistakes are going to be made along the way - it's not like there's a play-book for dealing with this current global pandemic. But personally, I believe in the resilience and capability of our plucky nation to get through this Covid-19 crisis, together.

It’s barmy to suggest the ‘half empty brigade’ want anything other than a successful vaccine, with a successful roll out programme safely and effectively delivered. I would say an unnecessary ‘poke/jibe’ at people, some of which work in the system, some of which may have put themselves on the trial to help out. Just out of interest, and not to point fingers or demonise anyone, as people have choice but @Al Krow, have you volunteered to be trained, or did you sign up for the vaccine trial?

There should be a playbook, pandemics and national disasters are not new phenomenon, admittedly there will have to be tweaks for individual cases.

The nation can be resilient, plucky etc. but unfortunately if the people in charge of the infrastructure to mobilise this are not always on point, and should be held accountable, which is all we are saying.

We all want the same thing

Edited November 19, 2020 by Cuzzie

[Basinski]

1 hour ago, Cuzzie said:

It’s barmy to suggest the ‘half empty brigade’ want anything other than a successful vaccine, with a successful roll out programme safely and effectively delivered. I would say an unnecessary ‘poke/jibe’ at people, some of which work in the system, some of which may have put themselves on the trial to help out. Just out of interest, and not to point fingers or demonise anyone, as people have choice but @Al Krow, have you volunteered to be trained, or did you sign up for the vaccine trial?

There should be a playbook, pandemics and national disasters are not new phenomenon, admittedly there will have to be tweaks for individual cases.

The nation can be resilient, plucky etc. but unfortunately if the people in charge of the infrastructure to mobilise this are not always on point, and should be held accountable, which is all we are saying.

We all want the same thing

 

3 hours ago, krispn said:

I’m sure this was said with a proud tear spilling down the cheek and the roar of Spirfire’s overhead 😀

Thing is though you’d think that our democratically elected leaders would have had a pandemic playbook of sorts. We have them for terror attacks and other ‘disasters’ except leaves on the tracks and a flurry of snow in mid January. Sure we can allow for the initial WTF moment as a national disaster hits but there should be a national strategy which considers what action should be taken and what resources are needed in this type of scenario. That’s what I expect as a voter. 
 

I think it’s great that there’s a been a shred of common sense employed here when looking at the practicalities involved in the deployment and administration of a nationwide vaccination programme. However I can’t help but think back to when the figures were confidently announced from lecturn’s suggesting 100,000 tests would be carried out daily and the ensuing shortfall in numbers and strain on testing facilities. A bit more realism and less politicking might have been a wiser choice with hindsight.

Anyway training... It’s not that hard to ‘train’ someone to insert a swab into the nostril but we were left with a massive shortfall in testing based on the toll it took on a system which was unprepared with the sheer magnitude of the task at hand, no one appeared to ask the lab’s what their capacity was before confidently throwing out the big numbers, if the reagents needed were available in such quantities etc. There were some red faces and people were made to look foolish because they wanted to project numbers that they were always going to struggle to hit due to many factors...before then doubling those targets.

Much in the same way as with a nasal swab it’s not terribly complicated to administer an intramuscular or sub cut injection but unlike the self administration (of insulin?) as pointed out earlier there are some other small things to consider when administering a mass vaccination programm to the public such as anaphylaxis management and the administration of emergency medication. It’s not an insurmountable task but there is some nuance to these things which add’s to the complexity in relation to training and supplies chains. It’s not just pinching the deltoid or the belly fat and sticking in a needle.

If this has been a bit long winded

TL:DR version We can bemoan the shortcomings because we’ve seen them first hand time and again. We can also be optimistic that they’ll get it right eventually but many of us remain cautious. Oh and don’t forget to vote! 

 
 

Exercise Cygnus took place in 2016. They simulated an outbreak of disease, similar to what we’re currently experiencing.

They found: “The UK’s preparedness and response, in terms of its plans, policies and capability, is currently not sufficient to cope with the extreme demands of a severe pandemic that will have a nationwide impact across all sectors,” 

One problem was that while each government body participating in the exercise had its own bespoke plans, enabling a flexible and decentralised response, nobody in the centre had oversight over everyone else.

Social care was found to be a particular concern.

The report listed four areas of “key learning” and 22 further “lessons identified” from the exercise, couched as recommendations to government. 

The report was never published, it’s existence came as a surprise to many people, especially those in the care sector. Maybe if they’d taken note of it, we wouldn’t have the highest death rate per capita in Europe? Especially bearing in mind that many of the ‘mistakes’ made, had already been identified four years earlier.

[Cuzzie]

46 minutes ago, Basinski said:

 

Exercise Cygnus took place in 2016. They simulated an outbreak of disease, similar to what we’re currently experiencing.

They found: “The UK’s preparedness and response, in terms of its plans, policies and capability, is currently not sufficient to cope with the extreme demands of a severe pandemic that will have a nationwide impact across all sectors,” 

One problem was that while each government body participating in the exercise had its own bespoke plans, enabling a flexible and decentralised response, nobody in the centre had oversight over everyone else.

Social care was found to be a particular concern.

The report listed four areas of “key learning” and 22 further “lessons identified” from the exercise, couched as recommendations to government. 

The report was never published, it’s existence came as a surprise to many people, especially those in the care sector. Maybe if they’d taken note of it, we wouldn’t have the highest death rate per capita in Europe? Especially bearing in mind that many of the ‘mistakes’ made, had already been identified four years earlier.

Exactly the point I was trying to make - a decent parallel is that we have Major incident plans in all the hospitals I work in for explosions, chemical, pile ups, car/plane/train crash etc. 
 

They are practiced and rehearsed, updated etc.
There were new processes popped in place for dealing with C-19, going to theatre, intubation for, transporting them around - policies were made and practiced and banked.

Its what should be done

[taunton-hobbit]

Reports rarely see the light of day - usually 'financially difficult'

or the end of someone's gravy train ........never hold your breath

😎