Band rehearsal in tier 2/3?

[41Hz]

That’s the way I’m reading it, but the wording is somewhat vague.

[dave_bass5]

On 26/11/2020 at 22:42, Beedster said:

You doubt the data Dave? Go visit a COVID ward, speak to doctors and nurses who do the caring and put their lives at risk every day, and explain to them that it’s Ok, you’re in a band and you need to rehearse. And go to the gym for whatever reason. But the supermarkets are at mostly at fault, cos while you need to play and exercise, people don’t need food. 

I’m not doubting the data at all, in fact the data is all i can go by. Why do you say I don’t?My point is just that the fatality number is very, very low compared to the infection number. Not doubting its a killer and obviously thats no conciliation for those that have lost others or are suffering long time effects. 

Ive been in hospital 3 times since march, so in fact have spoken to doctors and nurses, although not in the COVID wards.  

All i said was i was surprised i know of no one, nor do i know of any one that knows someone, that has died or suffered more than an inconvenience from this.

You can be as sarcastic as you want and put me down for trying to stay sane and living life as best i can. After losing my job after 36 years i need my brain (and body) to stay active or ill go over the edge. I can feel it coming. Sitting in a bubble at home will seriously damage my health, whereas keeping motivated is helping me cope. This is the reasons Gyms are important ot a lot fo people. And with two people regularly getting COVID tests in my household whatever we are doing hasn’t killed us yet. 

 

 

 

[julietgreen]

On 27/11/2020 at 15:30, gafbass02 said:

Some of you may remember how close I came to dying from it back in March. Close enough to have to make the calls to my parents, wife and kids. It wasn’t nice. 
Now we’re in November and I’m still suffering badly with long COVID. Only working 3 hours a day four mornings, and that’s when I can manage it. 
I wrote this blog a few months back and haven’t progressed since. In fact I have more symptoms now than I did and am in more pain. 
Please have a read and factor getting long COVID into your decisions.  I took the picture from my critical bed. 
https://gafranksauthor.home.blog/2020/09/21/living-with-long-covid-19/

Thank you for sharing this. It would be better if people would stop trivialising this disease based on their own lack of experience. Another musician friend of mine caught it at the same time as you and was in ICU for three months. He has suffered long-term damage. Before I read your article, I read another account of someone who lost their mother. A lot of people have died and are dying (>3000 a week in the UK, currently), but his account was particularly sobering because he described how his mother suffered in her last week and it was utterly horrific. Hard to imagine a worse torture.

My view is that we should, as much as we possibly can, be observing first principles of transmission of respiratory viruses. The first one of these is 'stay away from other people'. When that's impossible, limit the time and make sure that there is a fresh air supply. It doesn't matter if you're ten metres away, if you're in a room for three hours together and there is no new air. Everyone should be wearing face coverings at all times when they are anywhere near other people. Singers and horn players?

Rehearsal conditions break all the basic 'rules'. It may seem like a low risk, but when assessing risk, it's not just the likelihood that should be taken into account, but also the severity. For Covid, that's potentially death or possibly worse.

So my bands have not rehearsed since March, apart from those of us who are on Jamulus online. I have told my fellow band members that I will not rehearse in person nor play a gig until new infections are below 100 a day.

[dave_bass5]

45 minutes ago, julietgreen said:

Rehearsal conditions break all the basic 'rules'. It may seem like a low risk, but when assessing risk, it's not just the likelihood that should be taken into account, but also the severity. For Covid, that's potentially death or possibly worse.

So my bands have not rehearsed since March, apart from those of us who are on Jamulus online. I have told my fellow band members that I will not rehearse in person nor play a gig until new infections are below 100 a day.

I believe many more people die of flu each year, and that is transmitted in the same way.

Why do we feel its safe to rehearse or gig during the flu months?

Edited December 6, 2020 by dave_bass5

[Paul S]

56 minutes ago, dave_bass5 said:

I believe many more people die of flu each year, and that is transmitted in the same way.

Why do we feel its safe to rehearse or gig during the flu months?

Nope.  Flu deaths are around 1/4 to 1/2 of Covid, depending upon whose figures to look at.  And that is without the measures that have been taken with Covid taken into consideration.

[3below]

The risk from Covid is significant, especially if you are in the more vulnerable groups, however the likelihood of knowing someone who has died of Covid appears low. Total UK deaths to date is about 61 400.  UK population is about 66.65 Million.  This gives around 1 death per 1085 population.  Reflecting on the number of people you 'know'  reveals why there is a low chance of actually knowing someone who has died of Covid.  

For comparison:

"Public Health England told Full Fact it estimated that on average 17 000 people have died from the flu in England annually between 2014/15 and 2018/19 -  with the yearly deaths varying widely from a high of 28 330 in 2014/15 to a low of 1 692 in 2018/19.   This gives the worst case scenario 1 flu death per 2352 and on average 1 per 3 092 population.   

Road deaths 208/19 were about 1 748, giving 1 death per 38 130 population.  The volume of legislation, safety initiatives, public expenditure etc. to lower this rate suggests that government (and hence society?) consider this rate (and risk) is not acceptable.

The above figures are very simple analyses (no accounting for groups, ages, ethnicity,  local R rate, populations etc. but do help imo give perspective on our perception).

 

Edited December 6, 2020 by 3below

[gafbass02]

A lovely guy who was with me at the gig where I caught it died from it. 

[julietgreen]

10 hours ago, dave_bass5 said:

I believe many more people die of flu each year, and that is transmitted in the same way.

Why do we feel its safe to rehearse or gig during the flu months?

You believe incorrectly. Covid deaths are already more than four times the average Flu deaths in UK. 

[BreadBin]

6 hours ago, julietgreen said:

You believe incorrectly. Covid deaths are already more than four times the average Flu deaths in UK. 

Deaths within 28 days of a positive PCR test are not the same thing as Covid deaths. The official stats are quite misleading in this particular sense.

[Lozz196]

3 hours ago, BreadBin said:

Deaths within 28 days of a positive PCR test are not the same thing as Covid deaths. The official stats are quite misleading in this particular sense.

Yes, sadly if you test positive for COVID then fall out of a tree and die 23 days later the death is added in to the stats. 

[3below]

3 hours ago, BreadBin said:

Deaths within 28 days of a positive PCR test are not the same thing as Covid deaths. The official stats are quite misleading in this particular sense.

Are deaths that might have some 'overlap'  / 'possible connection' e.g. pneumonia contributing to the  'Deaths within 28 days of a positive PCR test' total rather than only those that are definitively linked ? If this is the case is there a more 'valid' estimate of the cumulative death total?.  I am not at all sure if this may be knowable (severe lack of bio-medical knowledge in my life).

Have just seen @Lozz196's reply which answers part of the above

Edited December 7, 2020 by 3below

[Dad3353]

A possible measure could be 'Expected deaths compared to actual deaths'. Here's one approach of the sort ...

Excess mortality UK ...

[3below]

10 minutes ago, Dad3353 said:

A possible measure could be 'Expected deaths compared to actual deaths'. Here's one approach of the sort ...

Excess mortality UK ...

Obvious  clearly my brain is switched off this morning as I have seen that measure before.

[julietgreen]

2 hours ago, Lozz196 said:

Yes, sadly if you test positive for COVID then fall out of a tree and die 23 days later the death is added in to the stats. 

This is not true.

[julietgreen]

5 hours ago, BreadBin said:

Deaths within 28 days of a positive PCR test are not the same thing as Covid deaths. The official stats are quite misleading in this particular sense.

The official stats may well be understating the number of deaths due to Covid. Many people die outside the 28 day cut off time. This is why it is important to look at a range of data before drawing conclusions.

[chris_b]

If someone dies of Covid they are a Covid death. If they die of something else, even having tested positive for Covid, they are not a Covid death! And why is there a time limit?

[Woodinblack]

6 hours ago, Lozz196 said:

Yes, sadly if you test positive for COVID then fall out of a tree and die 23 days later the death is added in to the stats. 

Are you convinced of that? Last time I look if you get run over two days after getting a covid diagnosis, that is counted as a RTA. I know that is what all the populist memes say but I didn't think it was remotely true.

Wheras if you die of covid 3 months after your diagnosis, it isn't put in that list, so it is underestimating.

Either way, there are almost 70k deaths more than we would expect in a normal year in two big spikes so I guess we have got really clumsy around trees this year?

[Nicko]

2 hours ago, Woodinblack said:

Are you convinced of that? Last time I look if you get run over two days after getting a covid diagnosis, that is counted as a RTA. I know that is what all the populist memes say but I didn't think it was remotely true.

Wheras if you die of covid 3 months after your diagnosis, it isn't put in that list, so it is underestimating.

Either way, there are almost 70k deaths more than we would expect in a normal year in two big spikes so I guess we have got really clumsy around trees this year?

I'm convinced of it.  The stats count the number of people who die and where a positive COVID test was conducted in the last 28 days, irrespective of the primary cause.  However, if you die of COVID 3 months after a test, you will be recorded as having died of COVID, or if you die of pneumonia as a complication of COVID and its mentioned on the deathj cert as a contributing cause  the death will be counted on a different metric.

The 28 day limit was brought in primarily because the stats were recording people who had tested positive months ago and died for unrelated reasons and is a nominal duration intended to minimise (not eliminate) the number that are over reported.

See here Gov stats

I don't doubt that the virus is causing significant excess deaths, but have suspicions that the 70k includes a significant number who have died due to the lockdown restrictions and who had not contracted the virus.  My father died a few weeks ago from cancer having been in remission for a coupe of years.  I'm pretty sure his decision not to receive treatment was partly because his life wasn't worth living when he was effectively a prisoner in his own home, without being permitted visits from his friends and family.

[Dad3353]

There's none so deaf as them's that won't hear. 

[Nicko]

46 minutes ago, Dad3353 said:

There's none so deaf as them's that won't hear. 

I hope that's not directed at me 🤔.   I'm not claiming that the virus isn't serious.  I do however have some reservations about the lockdown of the general population when the vast majority of fatalities are restricted to certain demographics, and the long term impact of the way the government has handled the issue.  

If you look back at my previous posts I have been saying that we need to observe the rules - if not because you are worried about the virus then because you should be considering the impact of further restrictions if cases rise.

Edited December 7, 2020 by Nicko

[3below]

1 hour ago, Nicko said:

I hope that's not directed at me 🤔.   I'm not claiming that the virus isn't serious.  I do however have some reservations about the lockdown of the general population when the vast majority of fatalities are restricted to certain demographics, and the long term impact of the way the government has handled the issue.  

If you look back at my previous posts I have been saying that we need to observe the rules - if not because you are worried about the virus then because you should be considering the impact of further restrictions if cases rise.

'Unlocking' the population other than those at high risk e.g. medically at risk? BAME? over 65? has an appeal. When you then consider the quality of life that would ensue and the contact of the general population with these groups it becomes much more complex.  There are no simple answers

[gafbass02]

Once again to point out that fatality is not the only factor here. I’m 44, in March I was fit and healthy and playing five nights in a row and working all day too. 
Until I caught it.
My old life disappeared over night. Now I can barely do anything and have just had to buy a walking stick to stay upright for more than five minutes. Yes, long COVID only affects a small percentage. But it’s not constrained to an age demographic and its hellish. 
As 3below says, nothing is simple, but there’s more to catching it than potentially dying. 

[Woodinblack]

12 hours ago, Nicko said:

I don't doubt that the virus is causing significant excess deaths, but have suspicions that the 70k includes a significant number who have died due to the lockdown restrictions and who had not contracted the virus.

I don't have suspicions on that. I dont doubt like with your example, some people probably have probably had complications that caused deaths due to lockdown, but I don't believe it is a significant (statistically - obviously it is terrible for the people involved). When I look at the graph of excess deaths (and these are the only figures I am going on), they climb up, then at the time there is a lockdown, a short but predictable time later, the deaths start going down. The correlation is pretty clear (and I am aware that that isn't proof) and I have absolutely no doubt lookng at these figures that lockdown actively saves lives. It is a really simple feedback loop.

I am also not dissagreeing that this is not ideal and with better management by the powers that be we wouldn't be anywhere near this situation in the first place, although I have gone from blaming the government entirely to realising that we are probably a country that probably deserve the government we have.

In my region, they read out the cases per subregion everynight. As such you could see it shooting up (at one point, my town had the lowest number of cases in the country, then they stupidly anounced that, and it went up faster than most surrounding areas. Maybe a coincidence, maybe not) until a week after lockdown. Now lockdown has ended almost all the regions are going down, but they will start leveling off soon and be back up.

[PaulWarning]

In Nottingham the infection rate went through the roof when the students came back, it's falling again now they're going home, I'm ready for another spike in January when they come back, of course that will be blamed, maybe rightly so, on the irresponsible decision to allow families to mix over Christmas

[steantval]

2 hours ago, PaulWarning said:

In Nottingham the infection rate went through the roof when the students came back, it's falling again now they're going home, I'm ready for another spike in January when they come back, of course that will be blamed, maybe rightly so, on the irresponsible decision to allow families to mix over Christmas

The next spike could well be before January looking at the picture coverage of the recent market in the centre.