What will you be doing in May?

[skidder652003]

would love to be gigging again by May but I haven't even approached our usual venues for gigs next year. I imagine some of them may never reopen, in fact I know of one in Sidmouth who confirmed they won't be putting gigs on again. Might get a few outdoor gigs I hope..

[mikel]

No gigs for me in May, I will be too busy queuing for food whenever it might be available.

[Phil Starr]

On 13/12/2020 at 12:22, Marvin said:

I've had a hiatus from bands, and ironically just before Covid came along I'd decided to get back into bands again. (Partly sparked by going to watch Editors in Manchester  )

I will, when circumstances permit, be out gigging again. When that is who knows. It could be May 2021, but if it's later then I'm fine with that, I can wait.

I've already been in touch with a few old band mates and there's the possibility of putting something together, so that's hopeful.

.

Whereabouts in Devon are you? I'll look forward to seeing you this summer

 

[Phil Starr]

4 hours ago, skidder652003 said:

would love to be gigging again by May but I haven't even approached our usual venues for gigs next year. I imagine some of them may never reopen, in fact I know of one in Sidmouth who confirmed they won't be putting gigs on again. Might get a few outdoor gigs I hope..

Hi Steve, is that Lynette at the Black Horse?

 

[skidder652003]

2 hours ago, Phil Starr said:

Hi Steve, is that Lynette at the Black Horse?

 

pm'd

[Marvin]

3 hours ago, Phil Starr said:

Whereabouts in Devon are you? I'll look forward to seeing you this summer

 

Up in the wilds of North Devon. Nearest known town is probably Barnstaple

[Bassfinger]

May is now looking wildly optimistic.

[Jus Lukin]

-

Edited March 11, 2022 by Jus Lukin

[Phil Starr]

10 hours ago, Bassfinger said:

May is now looking wildly optimistic.

I assume this is the new variant? It will make a difference.

Assuming yesterdays figures are accurate the base r-rate for Covid is 3-3.5% so the new strain is up at around 5. With the measures in place the r-rate is 1.2-1.4  with doubling infections every 10 days approximately. This is with about 50% of the home counties infections already being new variant. I'd already assumed in my calculations that the r-rate over Christmas /New Year would go up to 2. The new variant will push this up over the next few weeks but the tier 4 changes and what amounts to a third lockdown in London will act in the opposite direction. Delaying the return of the schools and hopefully extended travel restrictions will delay the spread of new variant. Hopefully the new fear factor and shocking scenes from hospitals will boost compliance  in the general population. It's really messy and only a fool would make firm predictions at the moment but I don't think the r-rate is going to go over 2 for long. that does mean doubling of infection every week however  and deaths rising to 1500-2000 a day in Jan. I think at that point and with an end in view from vaccination (I'd also assumed that other vaccines will gain approval in the next few weeks) people would wake up and compliance will improve and the r-rate I expected to go back to 1.2-1.4 by the end of Jan, deaths remaining high for at least 28 days from then on. I also assumed with 1 in 95 of the population infected at any time during that period 15% of the population would have been infected at least. Add these to the inoculated and I think we'll reach the 50% point sometime in Mar.

The point is that even if the basal r-rate moves up from 1.2 to 2.0 then 50% herd immunity will bring it back down by half once achieved. Once R  is permanently below 1 then the doubling every few days becomes a regular halving of infection and there will be a decay curve as predictable as the exponential growth curve. I still think this is likely to happen some time in Mar or early April. At that moment it will still be grim, worse than now but if we are at 1000 deaths a day then if it is halving every 10 days then it will have reduced to 125 deaths a day a month later and double figures 10 days after that. Meantime we will have continued vaccination and the r-rate will drop further and the rate of infection will halve more quickly. Two months of holding R below 1 and we be down to death rates in single figures and even before this happens infection rates will fall to a level where track and trace can cope.

The Prime Minister is being foolishly optimistic in expecting this to be over by Easter but I don't think I'm completely a Fool for predicting R below 1 by April 1 ( you see what I did there  ) I'm a biologist, I expect viruses to mutate, usually they become more infectious and less deadly bu there are no guarantees. this has always been a race against time and mutation is one of the reasons we should have locked down sooner and harder. 

I'll stick with the end of May for now until more data comes in. 

Keep safe everyone.

[Nicko]

23 hours ago, Phil Starr said:

Meantime we will have continued vaccination and the r-rate will drop further and the rate of infection will halve more quickly. Two months of holding R below 1 and we be down to death rates in single figures and even before this happens infection rates will fall to a level where track and trace can cope.

Doesn't this assume that the vaccine is effective at preventing transmission?  My understanding was that if not the R rate won't change significantly, although the number of hospital admissions and deaths will.  There's even an argument that the R rate could increase as more are vaccinated because those that think they are safe will behave differently.  I'm most definitely not a biologist so hope you can correct me!

[Phil Starr]

20 minutes ago, Nicko said:

Doesn't this assume that the vaccine is effective at preventing transmission?  My understanding was that if not the R rate won't change significantly, although the number of hospital admissions and deaths will.  There's even an argument that the R rate could increase as more are vaccinated because those that think they are safe will behave differently.  I'm most definitely not a biologist so hope you can correct me!

Of course it does, but it is extremely rare for that to happen. The only virus I can think of is HIV which we know attacks the immune system, it's an immunovirus. At a very simple level if people recover from the virus it means their immune systems can stop the virus replicating. If we have a vaccine that works, and we have several then again it works via stimulating our immune system.

Viruses work by taking over our cells and printing out billions of copies. It's those copies present in massive numbers in our breath that spread respiratory viruses so if they aren't replicating they won't be present in vast numbers and you've cut the chances of infection. We know a lot about Corona viruses because we've seen them before, two of them cause common colds including probably the one that probably caused the Flu pandemic of 1889 1889–1890 pandemic - Wikipedia. It's possible that the current coronavirus is different in some way from all the other coronaviruses but there is no evidence that points in that direction and the possibility of a problem is only that. 

When we have little or no data it makes sense to keep an open mind and remain vigilant but it isn't rational to believe we have the whole of our biology wrong and not go where the 99.5% probability points us.

If you've reduced the virus in our respiratory tract by millions to one it is a bit obtuse to think you wont reduce transmission.

[Phil Starr]

45 minutes ago, Nicko said:

  There's even an argument that the R rate could increase as more are vaccinated because those that think they are safe will behave differently.  I'm most definitely not a biologist so hope you can correct me!

Hi @Nicko this is a separate issue I guess.  The first thing is that people who have the first part of the two part jab are still just as likely as anyone else to be 'spreaders' and I think that is reflected in government advice.

There was an interesting interview yesterday with one of the behavioural scientists on the SAGE committee. Spitting tacks as it happens. I'm no expert but one of the danger points is going to be when the rates start falling and people relax. Clearly seeing what others do is one of the major cultural drivers. My son teaches in japan where it is normal for anyone with a sniffle to mask up and they simply masked up without needing to be told when this started. They also have a strong touch taboo so their epidemic has been really delayed. I've noticed since the second lockdown that more people are wearing their masks in the streets and that makes us less self conscious in joining in. Seeing people who have been vaccinated relaxing is bound to affect all those around them, even if relaxing is found to be a perfectly sensible thing to do for them.

We truly are all in this together, we need a government plan which we all share and invest in and which makes good scientific sense as far as our knowledge allows. Survey after survey shows 3/4 of the population in favour of more caution with only 25% likely to be pandemic/vaccine deniers. We are pretty divided on this so not many don't knows. There's an irony in those who call on Churchillian metaphors being the ones supporting those who aren't all in it together. 

[Newfoundfreedom]

On 19/12/2020 at 23:29, Bassfinger said:

May is now looking wildly optimistic.

It always was. 

[lownote]

Friend of ours in the late sixties age group has been told by her Lancashire GP to expect the needle in 'late Feb to mid March'. Even if that happens she'll be in Mid April before the jab's fully effective.  And there's a couple of younger priority groups to jab after her. So I doubt May for a free for all very much.

[Newfoundfreedom]

There's an online calculator somewhere that tells you when you can expect to get the vaccine in the UK.

Based on them issuing 1 million doses a week (highly unlikely) I could expect the vaccine in September, with 39 million people ahead of me on the list. 

Thankfully I'm not in the UK, and I'm in no rush to get the vaccine. 

[DaytonaRik]

2 hours ago, Newfoundfreedom said:

There's an online calculator somewhere that tells you when you can expect to get the vaccine in the UK.

https://www.omnicalculator.com/health/vaccine-queue-uk

 

[gjones]

On 12/12/2020 at 16:09, Grahambythesea said:

I think your predictions are totally right Phil. I hope some musicians will be out there as I’m booked to take my grandkids on a Disney Cruise ( should have been last August but took the cruise credit ) and I really enjoy the quality of people cruise lines book to play in the bars.  The main theatre bands are brill too, but Disney use backing tracks for their shows, I guess Mickey isn’t up to live singing. 🤣

A cruise? A thousand people all packed together like sardines for a week (or more). You are a brave chap.

[Newfoundfreedom]

2 hours ago, gjones said:

A cruise? A thousand people all packed together like sardines for a week (or more). You are a brave chap.

My idea of hell on the best of days. 😆

[Phil Starr]

On 12/12/2020 at 11:51, Phil Starr said:

I'm going to stick my neck out here, and make a prediction. Sometime towards the end of May we will all start gigging again properly. Everyone is going to be so up for going out we are going to have a great time in the second half of next year.

OK, of course I can't possibly know that, but in Jan when I saw the information from China I told my family there would be a pandemic. Then I anticipated the inevitable second peak after the pubs opened and the schools went back and I'm prepared to predict the blindingly obvious third peak and lockdown about 2-3 weeks into January, expect another lockdown. After that it's going to look a lot more cheerful, by the end of March the most vulnerable members of society will be vaccinated and a substantial number of others will also be immune by infection and vaccination. By this time I expect the other cheaper more stable vaccines will have kicked in too so supplies will be less of an issue. Even with 30% of the population vaccinated the r-rate will reduce by..... er 30%. Combined with the rather pathetic safety measures in place and people moving outside the r-rate will fall permanently below 1 and life will gradually return to normal for most of us.

Anyway I got sidetracked. Sometime around May we will get back to gigging again What plans do you have? How has your band survived the last year? Are you bringing in new skills developed from spending more time at home or like me have you just got a little rusty?

 

I thought I'd revisit this. Interestingly no-one asked how I derived this foolish prediction. It's based entirely upon my very limited training in population dynamics, the maths of living populations. I studied r-rates at university.

If you look at the date it was made without knowledge of the Kent variant. We had approved the Pfizer-Biontec but not Astra Zeneca when I did the calculations and Boris and Matt Hancock were still in charge. My calculations were entirely based upon rising herd immunity and r-rate predictions and that government behaviour would not improve. The calculations which I actually did at the end of November predicted a huge second peak in January (I predicted a median 2000 deaths a day at peak) and a third lockdown would take place.  I assumed we would be capable of vaccinating as many people as we could get vaccines but I assumed supplies would be limited to around 500,000 a day. the contracts we had placed and government investment in research and facilities was widely reported. Since medical staff were the only ones who could safely do the job it would have to be managed by the NHS so was likely to be better managed than by Serco or G4S.

So I shut up when the new variant was around, the infection rate rose earlier and more steeply than I expected but the government put us into lockdown in Dec a month earlier than I had predicted too, though still a week later than it should have been. January was carnage too and my death rate prediction held. I ran some numbers in Jan but there were too many unknowns to make reliable predictions with my limited resources. The actual numbers of immunised people which was the basis of my calculation was remaining quite accurate though, the Kent variant made sure herd immunity spread fast at the cost of many more dead, lots of long Covid and exhausted medical staff.

So where are we now? Well we've arrived pretty much where I was predicting a couple of weeks later than I forecast. We might have made it if the idiots hadn't opened the schools two weeks early. The national infection rate was falling until they opened then basically flatlined and looks like halving over the Easter holidays ( I just checked the 7 day averages allowing about 5 days between infection and disease spread) I don't think a lot of actual education happened in two weeks of a disrupted term but I was a school teacher, what do I know.

Roughly 2/3 of our population are now more or less immune from Covid and essentially unlikely to become spreaders. Even with the schools open the r-rate fell very slightly below one but only just. We know that relaxation of outdoor mixing has almost no effect on the spread of disease. Government policy seems designed to make sure we stretch out the pandemic as long as possible but I expect the r-rate to stay below one from now on. So long as it does infections will halve and halve again so by the end of April we are going to be looking at maybe 500-1000 new infections a day. Still too high for Dido Harding's contractors to get on top of tracing and isolating but another month and they might catch up.

So I go back to my prediction, at the end of May I think some form of gigging will resume. The government will re-open too early and drag it out but I think we will see large scale public events in relative safety by the end of the year unless they let the new variants in to hybridise with what we already have. Foreign travel anyone?

[ubit]

On 12/12/2020 at 11:51, Phil Starr said:

in Jan when I saw the information from China I told my family there would be a pandemic. Then I anticipated the inevitable second peak after the pubs opened and the schools went back and I'm prepared to predict the blindingly obvious third peak and lockdown about 2-3 weeks into January, expect another lockdown. After that it's going to look a lot more cheerful, by the end of March the most vulnerable members of society will be vaccinated and a substantial number of others will also be immune by infection and vaccination.

Any chance of the lottery numbers mate?

[KevB]

Not I will even be back rehearsing by May never mind gigging. I randomely bumped into the singer from one of the bands I'm in whilst out walking and we had a brief chat and both came to the conclusion that the band was probably on the verge of fizzling out. The other one has gigs booked in July and August at the earliest so not as much of a hassle to get it running, just a blues rock trio.

[neepheid]

Echo the above sentiment - I've only seen my drummer briefly about twice in a year, never mind played anything.  The rest of the band(s) have stayed in sporadic contact electronically.  We haven't played a note together in over a year.  Gigging in May?  We won't even be rehearsing in May because we fail on number of households.  Bollox to rehearsing outdoors.  Will see about getting together with my drummer to chase the rust out of the engine room if nothing else - up in Scotland that's tenatively pencilled in after 17th May when up to 4 people from 2 households can meet indoors.

We've still got a wedding in October on the books, so let's hope we can do that.  But it's a hope, not an expectation.

[Phil Starr]

1 hour ago, ubit said:

Any chance of the lottery numbers mate?

Sadly it wasn't part of my training. The maths seems to say if you want to win money become a bookie

[Bobthedog]

I will not be going anywhere near Brian, let alone in him! 

[Lozz196]

Our first rehearsal post Lockdown the Third is on 29 April, really looking forward to it.