Will Vintage Guitars Be Worthless When Boomers Are Gone?

[musicbassman]

Interesting and knowledgeable discussion.

We're talking about skinny strings here, but same principles apply.

 

 

[mikel]

Probably not.  Some believe that an old instrument sounds better,  for want of a more appropriate word,  than a new one. Some think an old instrument looks better. Look at the fashion for buying reliced instruments,  they can't all be bought by boomers. Personally I prefer to buy new, then it's mine,  and any wear or tear will be mine. 

[Rich]

I've not listened to the whole thing as I don't have half an hour to spare right now, but in general I hate sweeping generational stuff, "all boomers are... all millenials are...". It's lazy at best and bigoted at worst. I'm not talking about this vid, just in general.

All I'll say is I'm not a boomer, but a 1965 Jazz is very much on my GAS list. If I had the money, I would definitely buy some vintage instruments. My bestie is gen X too, but he has a lovely little collection of 50s/60s Gibson jazz boxes. On the other hand, I bet there are a lot of boomers here who wouldn't look twice at a vintage instrument.

 

[Cato]

I think they'll be worth less unless guitar based music comes back in a big way because there will be less nostalgia for them, but I think that will be after Gen X is gone rather than the Baby Boomers.

[Doctor J]

They will be owned by banks and hedge funds, to be loaned out to future versions of Joe Bonamassa to play their fake blues on, in high-priced pay-per-view special streaming performances.

[Misdee]

Vintage guitars will not become worthless after the boomers are gone. The legend will live on.  People will continue to be fixated on the unattainable

 

Guitarists are obsessed with vintage. They are told to be from a very early age. "Vintage-style case, vintage-style strap, vintage-style cable."  Vintage in guitar culture is a magical idea that covers everything and cannot be disproven. Without the idea of vintage the whole industry would be looking at each other blankly not knowing what to do. Vintage is going nowhere anytime soon, trust me on that.

 

The old designs have never been significantly improved on or superceded so the origin myth will still prevail.

Edited August 19, 2022 by Misdee

[wintoid]

Look at film cameras, for example.  Some really old film cameras are now quite valuable, but generally Leica/Rolleiflex/Hasselblad etc.  You'd think the value would have dropped, but it hasn't.

 

So I suspect prices will broadly hold.

[Grahambythesea]

I am a boomer and I’ve owned 2 vintage basses. I traded both for something else which was not vintage and I have no gas for anything vintage. I want playable reliable and affordable. I do not want to be worrying about losing my priceless bit of kit.

[SteveXFR]

The world is going to end soon anyway due to either global warming, nuclear war or covid 20 which I think may reduce the value of all guitars.

[meterman]

Kind of my outlook too. I had a pair of vintage instruments that I’d started to get a bit twitchy about flying with, or touring with, so bought some cheaper backups for European or overseas gigs. 
 

I realised fairly quickly that my s/h £150 Squier from 2015 was more reliable than my 1968 Fender. And by taking it out on gigs I didn’t have the whole anxiety about the possibility of a vintage instrument getting trashed by baggage handlers or lost or stolen, or whatever.

 

Eventually I sold off my vintage stuff and kept reliable cheapies.

 

There’ll probably always be a market for ‘all-original’ vintage gear to collectors or investors but I’m not part of it.

[tegs07]

When geekiness and obsession are banished from the world vintage guitars will become worthless and it will be safe to take those star wars figures out of their boxes and put the stamps on the envelopes. Until then I suspect there will be a market for them.

[skankdelvar]

I suppose these things might go in cycles. The whole vintage electric guitar market sprang out of rock about fifty years ago and while rock continued to pertain, so did the interest in vintage gear. Indeed, Rock had a good run from 1956-2000(-ish) and the relative longevity and wealth of its fans has kept the vintage market alive.

 

However much we'd like to believe otherwise, Rock is now no longer mainstream. In the next 20 years Rock will become (if it hasn't already) a minority interest sub-genre of popular music like Jazz and Folk. If hardly anyone's playing Rock, where's the value in a '73 Strat?

 

Hopefully Rock will not become as obscure a sub-genre as rag-time*. It might even come back one day but then I'm still waiting for the music hall revival. Where have you gone, Harry Lauder, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

 

So, yeah, collapse in market values inbound except for the choicest of pieces with some sort of interesting provenance. Different for acoustic guitars, perhaps, less genre-tainted.

 

On the other hand, there's still interest in making music. Strong market in vintage studio gear; interesting examples of, say, old optical compressors, much rarer than mass-produced guitars.

 

* Nothing wrong with rag-time. It just doesn't sell much these days.
 

 

Edited August 19, 2022 by skankdelvar
clarification, dangling modifier

[ezbass]

With the likes of Gibson and Fender reissuing guitars and basses from ‘the golden era’ and people buying those in big numbers, the desire for the ‘real thing’ will always be there. Scarcity breeds value and desire it seems.

[Misdee]

31 minutes ago, SteveXFR said:

The world is going to end soon anyway due to either global warming, nuclear war or covid 20 which I think may reduce the value of all guitars.

 In one way or another the world has been in a perpetual state of crisis for millennia. The eschatological crescendo never happens, though. Things just get even  worse ie Boris buggers off to make way for Liz Truss instead. Life is rubbish and then you get an even bigger big gas bill.

 

Human beings have an almost infinite capacity for suffering. I know this to be true because I once went on a school trip where the teacher driving the minibus played his Smurfs tape over and over again without remission for five days. Then after the tape broke he played Can't Slow Down by Lionel Richie for the remaining two days. 

 

However bad things get we will still be here and there will still be a burgeoning market for vintage gear. Half of which won't work properly.

[kodiakblair]

4 hours ago, Doctor J said:

They will be owned by banks and hedge funds, to be loaned out to future versions of Joe Bonamassa to play their fake blues on, in high-priced pay-per-view special streaming performances.

Just like the world of Classical Music is, hopefully without the Bonamassa clones.

[SteveXFR]

21 minutes ago, Misdee said:

 In one way or another the world has been in a perpetual state of crisis for millennia. The eschatological crescendo never happens, though. Things just get even  worse ie Boris buggers off to make way for Liz Truss instead. Life is rubbish and then you get an even bigger big gas bill.

 

Human beings have an almost infinite capacity for suffering. I know this to be true because I once went on a school trip where the teacher driving the minibus played his Smurfs tape over and over again without remission for five days. Then after the tape broke he played Can't Slow Down by Lionel Richie for the remaining two days. 

 

However bad things get we will still be here and there will still be a burgeoning market for vintage gear. Half of which won't work properly.

 

Best buy a Peavey T40 just incase though. That should withstand a direct hit from a nuke.

[SubsonicSimpleton]

Ultra rare and valuable instruments (like 59 Les Pauls) will propably hold their value, but I can't see the inflated prices that people are asking now for unremarkable 70s,80s instruments being sustainable in the long term.

[drTStingray]

Interesting comparison at a recent jam session - 2010 Classic Stingray (TI flats, mutes on); 1960 Precision. 
 

Vast difference in current value - however I know which one sounded and arguably looked better…. the Ray has a stunning neck (birds eye and flamed). 
 

I don’t know the answer to the OP question but I do know I wouldn’t pay the going rate for the P bass!! 
 

[Woodinblack]

Most of the people I know who care about vintage instruments are Millenials, so there are certainly some.

I think they will have value just because they are measurable and rare, obviously all the stuff from later on won't appreciate in the same way as it isn't rare.

[dclaassen]

I don’t believe we have the perspective to predict this trend. In the 80’s, I unloaded several “classic” basses because, at that time, they were just old. Now, I wish I had all of them. Right now, I am planning to use a nice Jazz that I stumbled across instead of my fancy boutique bass for the pub band…it just seems to fit better. Value will always be in the eye of the beholder.

[BigRedX]

37 minutes ago, SubsonicSimpleton said:

Ultra rare and valuable instruments (like 59 Les Pauls) will propably hold their value, but I can't see the inflated prices that people are asking now for unremarkable 70s,80s instruments being sustainable in the long term.

 

What's so special about 59 Les Pauls? What makes them better than ones made in December 58 or January 60?

[Old Horse Murphy]

All I know is they'd better get their skates on before Joe Bonamassa buys them all up and stores them in his cave where he does (apparently) unspeakable things to them in turn, while the other guitars watch on horrified. 

[dclaassen]

7 minutes ago, BigRedX said:

 

What's so special about 59 Les Pauls? What makes them better than ones made in December 58 or January 60?

Probably nothing to you, but someone else may value that manufacture year. You are both entitled to your opinion. 

[Lozz196]

I reckon they’ll always be desirable/collectible, whether or not it will be quite as much as currently is another matter. I started playing in Dec 1980 so have always thought about a Precision made then, but given the prices doubtful I’ll ever do anything about it.

[adamg67]

It's not necessarily a good parallel with guitars, as they havn't really changed style as much, but there are examples of the market dropping for things which are rare and were once desirable, but which fall out of fashion. My brother in laws dad had a collection of Rolls Royces (he was a scrap dealer in postwar London and bought them cheap) which were not worth nearly as much as he thought by the time he came to try and sell, and my parents had a thing for mahogany and red velvet antique victorian furniture, which ended up being worth sod all (quite rightly IMHO).

Edited August 19, 2022 by adamg67