Will Vintage Guitars Be Worthless When Boomers Are Gone?

[meterman]

13 minutes ago, BigRedX said:

 

What's so special about 59 Les Pauls? What makes them better than ones made in December 58 or January 60?

For boomers, it’s the association with the players that used them, and the so called ‘classic’ records they’re on. Eric Clapton, Peter Green, Mike Bloomfield, Jeff Beck, Jimmy Page, Duane Allman, Keith Richards, etc, all used 1959 models and that’s why boomer guitar nerds seem to lose their marbles over them. 
 

Personally I’d rather have a ‘52 or ‘53. Or a reissue. Or a Minimoog. Or...

[adamg67]

https://www.classiccarsforsale.co.uk/rolls-royce/silver+cloud/5f6bd09d-93d3-6024-b8f4-d78ab22c48f7

https://www.classiccarsforsale.co.uk/ford/escort+rs+2000/65a1550f-bbeb-6e0e-a8fd-e6f793da48d6

 

The generation that loved Rollers is on the way out, the generation that loved a rally style Escort are earning money, or cashing in their pensions.

Edited August 19, 2022 by adamg67

[SubsonicSimpleton]

14 minutes ago, BigRedX said:

 

What's so special about 59 Les Pauls? What makes them better than ones made in December 58 or January 60?

I have never been motivated to go into all the details - you would need to ask a Gibson fanboy, sorry.

[SteveXFR]

Classic cars I understand, there will never be a new car even remotely similar to an E Type or a Lancia Fulvia or even a mk1 Escort but you can still buy a P bass or J bass or Thunderbird which looks and sounds pretty similar to an original. Add it in to a band and no one could hear the difference between a 60's instrument and the modern equivalent. 

[Woodinblack]

1 hour ago, BigRedX said:

 

What's so special about 59 Les Pauls? What makes them better than ones made in December 58 or January 60?

 

They are highly desirable, although december 58s and january 60 would also sort of be considered 59s. The neck changed quite a bit a the end of 58, and the finishes changed. The ones made in jan 60 would be models started in 59. Later in 60 the necks changed again and a lot of people weren't so keen on that.

But the 59s are considered the most important by collectors, and collectors don't necessarily need a logical reason to collect things.

[Lozz196]

I went to a local luthier for a bit of work on a bass and he had a ‘59 Les Paul in. I didn’t go anywhere near it in case of any accidents or clumsiness on my part.

[Linus27]

Very interesting topic. I initially thought that vintage instruments would perhaps be of some considerable value but I look at some of them now and most are not really what I thought they'd be worth. Excluding some Fender's, if you look at old Warwick's, Stingray's, Status basses then they aren't collector prices so I'm generally not really sure vintage basses are going to be crazy money. Obviously some will like a 50's Precision but I'm not convinced a 1987 Stingray will go silly.

 

I'm also wondering if Skandelver is on the money where he says Rock is going to go the same way as Jazz and other genre's and no longer be mainstream. If anything, it could be a good thing as you'd have a few good rock clubs opening up in the style of say Ronnie Scott's or Jazz Cafe or various Rock festivals like Cambridge folk festival.

 

As for me, I gig with with a couple of wonderful Japanese Fender Jazzes. Worth about £800 - £1000 and they are wonderful instruments. However, after the music career I've had, I felt I owed it to myself to have at least one bass that's a bit special so I also have a Stingray which I gig with occasionally. If it wasn't a Stingray then it would probably be a US Precision or Streamer Stage 1. So nothing fancy or vintage but respectable but wont be worth much when I've turned to dust.

[Sibob]

SOOO many people playing and listening to rock (as an umbrella term) at the mo lol, what a weird conclusion to come to.

Download attracts around 150,000 people a year, what other ‘mainstream’ genre attracts that to a single festival in the UK?? Electronic music (again, an umbrella term) maybe!? That’s about it.
 

As a millennial who loves vintage basses, the whole thing kinda smacks of some boomers who can’t possibly imagine something being popular once they’re gone, like they’re the arbiter of an entire genre or (vintage) guitar ethos.

 

Ego much?
 

Si

[Woodinblack]

33 minutes ago, Sibob said:

As a millennial who loves vintage basses, the whole thing kinda smacks of some boomers who can’t possibly imagine something being popular once they’re gone, like they’re the arbiter of an entire genre or (vintage) guitar ethos.

 

Ego much?

I don't think so, just being around a while shows you how the values of some things is very transient, the guitarist in my band is in his 30s, loves jags, I was telling him how in the 80/90S you could pick up something like an XJS for sofa change, in the same way that you couldn't really give a 70s p bass away, now they are worth something.

 

there really is no way to predict the value of something like a collectible, like a Wal currently goes for thousands, equally good things made at the time don't, can be just down to luck 

[adamg67]

1 hour ago, Woodinblack said:

I don't think so, just being around a while shows you how the values of some things is very transient, the guitarist in my band is in his 30s, loves jags, I was telling him how in the 80/90S you could pick up something like an XJS for sofa change, in the same way that you couldn't really give a 70s p bass away, now they are worth something.

 

there really is no way to predict the value of something like a collectible, like a Wal currently goes for thousands, equally good things made at the time don't, can be just down to luck 

 

Yeah, this is the point I was trying to make about Rollers vs Escorts. In the 80s even a nice RS2000 wasn't worth all that much, but a Silver Ghost probably still was. Now the escort is worth more. Very, very few (if any) people predicted that, it was down to changing tastes.

[Lozz196]

I’ve heard of Capris being up at £70K

 

My first one was only £650

[Old Horse Murphy]

14 minutes ago, Lozz196 said:

I’ve heard of Capris being up at £70K

 

My first one was only £650

4 or 5 String Lozz?

 

 

Edited August 19, 2022 by Old Horse Murphy

[adamg67]

27 minutes ago, Lozz196 said:

I’ve heard of Capris being up at £70K

 

My first one was only £650

 

My guess (and that's all it is) is that Capris will come back down again, because they only mean anything to the generation that had them when they were youngish. This is a more specific version of one the opinions being made in the original vid, which is that certain guitars mean something to people of a certain age. Strats got slightly ditched a bit for offset style guitars arouind Nirvana time, and maybe will get a bit of the same effect.

[miles'tone]

17 minutes ago, Old Horse Murphy said:

4 or 5 String Lozz?

 

 

It would have to be the V6 string 3.0S...

[OliverBlackman]

To my ears vintage fenders are a different gravy to modern ones. Hopefully the value does drop and I can afford one but with how many were modified they’re only going to get scarcer. 

[OliverBlackman]

1 hour ago, Woodinblack said:

there really is no way to predict the value of something like a collectible, like a Wal currently goes for thousands, equally good things made at the time don't, can be just down to luck 

Luck? I don’t think so, circumstances such as change to production, competitiveness in the market and fashions will affect desirability.

[FinnDave]

I don't have clue what a boomer is, but I can't see the market in old electric instruments lasting forever. 

[3below]

17 minutes ago, FinnDave said:

I don't have clue what a boomer is, but I can't see the market in old electric instruments lasting forever. 

You are quite correct, a boomer in US Navy slang is a ballistic missile submarine (SSBN).  When the boomers are gone as suggested by @musicbassman, i.e. all the nukes have been used and WW3 is over, there will be little need for vintage guitars. 

 

In seriousness, having owned (in my youth, since I am a trailing edge boomer) what are now vintage guitars and comparing them to modern instruments, they are nice but I would not be putting my money into them.  Modern (dirt cheap kit) is usually really outstanding value. Using a PA or 'stage volume' any subtlety or nuance of a really good vintage guitar is lost.  It can be taken out without fear of loss or damage. A Robin Trower interview has stuck with me for many, many years, roughly summarised,  he had vintage guitars and amps stolen, after that he chose to use modern kit that was replaceable in the same event.  

[Downunderwonder]

Boomer is short for ''50's baby boom born person''. Many due to check out in coming years.

[Staggering on]

1 hour ago, Downunderwonder said:

Boomer is short for ''50's baby boom born person''. Many due to check out in coming years.

 

Close, but in general use it refers to post WW Two babies and the usual time span is from 1946 to 1964 which makes me one, I'm from '46 and I am trying to ignore your reference to "checking out" soon, although of course I know you are right. How did I ever get to be 76? 🙄 

 

Edit: In keeping with the topic of the thread I must tell you I still have and still play the Gibson J 50 Adj that I bought new in 1967 and it still sounds great and is worth a lot more than I paid for it, not that that was a factor way back then, I just wanted a good guitar.😊

Edited August 20, 2022 by Staggering on

[Richard R]

6 hours ago, Woodinblack said:

... the guitarist in my band is in his 30s, loves jags, I was telling him how in the 80/90S you could pick up something like an XJS for sofa change...

I have recently learned the hard way that even if you do your research thoroughly and buy carefully, then you can't predict resale value. I bought a cheap 2006 4.2l Jag XK last year as the market had been flat for some while. Its value promptly droped 20% when some b### started a war and the cost of energy and fuel went through the roof. 😬

 

By analogy- passive basses should hold their own better than active, as they are cheaper to run.

[skankdelvar]

7 hours ago, Sibob said:

SOOO many people playing and listening to rock

 

In 2021 the Billboard Top 200 Albums of The Year contained not one new rock album. The 'youngest' rock artists in the Billboard 2021 chart were the Foos (based on sales of their old stuff) whose new album sold a miserable 70,000 units in its debut week but didn't even make it into the year's chart.

 

The top 10 Billboard rock artists of 2021 included The Beatles, Fleetwood Mac, AC DC, Nirvana, Queen, Metallica and Pink Floyd.

 

Lots of people listening to rock. Not so many people listening to new rock.

 

 

[Kiwi]

17 hours ago, Doctor J said:

They will be owned by banks and hedge funds, to be loaned out to future versions of Joe Bonamassa to play their fake blues on, in high-priced pay-per-view special streaming performances.

I think this is closer to the truth than many might admit.  Look at the classic car market at the moment for a hint of the near future and the art collectors market for a flash of the future 20-30 years from now.  Halo guitars like a 58 Les Paul sunburst flame top will have reached mythical status just like the Ferrari 250 GTO SWB.  Relics of a romanticised era of popular music to be worshipped and fetishised due to their nostalgic associations, more than their actual substance. 

 

The art world is worse. No final sale price that has ever been achieved through the main auction houses could be justified in terms of the cost of materials and labour, not even Damion Hurst's 'For The Love Of God' diamond encrusted skull which eventually sold for US$100 million.  The value is almost entirely intangible and invented. (Ironically, 'For The Love of God' is perhaps an interesting comment itself on the idea of what is it that we actually value in art work.)

 

Furthermore, while the actual number of people capable of paying for such relics will diminish, the values won't.  I think the instruments will continue to be perceived as ever more desirable badges of exclusivity and icons of the history of popular culture.

 

 

[Downunderwonder]

1 hour ago, Staggering on said:

 

Close, but in general use it refers to post WW Two babies and the usual time span is from 1946 to 1964 which makes me one, I'm from '46 and I am trying to ignore your reference to "checking out" soon, although of course I know you are right. How did I ever get to be 76? 🙄 

 

Edit: In keeping with the topic of the thread I must tell you I still have and still play the Gibson J 50 Adj that I bought new in 1967 and it still sounds great and is worth a lot more than I paid for it, not that that was a factor way back then, I just wanted a good guitar.😊

I wish you many more  years of going boompity boom boom.

[Musicman666]

1 hour ago, Downunderwonder said:

I wish you many more  years of going boompity boom boom.

no other generations have boomed quite like the boomers ...there is going to be a distinct lack of adults coming up soon in many developed areas of the world and with it will come a possible drop in the price of certain commodities such as real estate or even vintage guitars.