Will Vintage Guitars Be Worthless When Boomers Are Gone?

[Chiliwailer]

13 hours ago, BigRedX said:

 

What's so special about 59 Les Pauls? What makes them better than ones made in December 58 or January 60?

It’s the neck profile, or perhaps the myth of it being a more ‘comfortable’ profile if being cynical. But there is a difference between the years, 59 is narrower. 
 

The next factor in price for a 59 is usually the depth of the flame top, more pronounced flame being more desirable and costly. 
 

Not sure where the prices are at now, but I remember one hitting £250k about 15ish years ago. That gap of Gibson not producing LP’s for a period during the 60s being to blame. 

Edited August 20, 2022 by Chiliwailer

[FinnDave]

7 hours ago, Downunderwonder said:

Boomer is short for ''50's baby boom born person''. Many due to check out in coming years.

Nothing to do with bitterns, then. I was born in 57, so I must be one as well (not a bittern, obviously).

[Kiwi]

2 hours ago, Chiliwailer said:

Not sure where the prices are at now, but I remember one hitting £250k about 15ish years ago. That gap of Gibson not producing LP’s for a period during the 60s being to blame. 

About a million dollars for the best, particularly if it has celebrity provenance.  Kirk Hammet  paid US$2 million for Peter Green/Gary Moore's 59 sunburst LP.  They've started to acquire nicknames now, like stradivarius violins which just adds to the mythical associations. 

Peter Green/Gary Moore LP = "Greeny" FKA "Collectors Choice No. 1" or "Magic"
Jimmy Page's LP = "Number Two"

Jimmy Page/Joe Walsh's LP = "Number One"
Billy Gibbon's LP = "Pearly Gates"

George Harrison/Eric Clapton's LP = "Lucy"

Eric Clapton = "Beano Burst"
Steve Lukather = "Rosanna Burst" 

etc.  

Of course this helps Gibson immensely because they can, like Fender, release limited edition replicas or reissues of legendary models at significant margin over the production line versions with minimal extra production costs. Funnily enough, it's estimated that over a thousand 59 Les Paul sunburst flame tops are left out of a total production volume of about 643 (according to burstserial.com).  Mainly because in the late 60's it wasn't unknown for some players started to get 58 goldtops stripped and recapped with a quilted top.  Or sometimes just refinished with a sunburst.  Ed Roman was infamous for doing this and then flogging the modded instruments as original sunbursts with a refinish.

[Bunion]

The same day this was posted I got an email from footman James who I’ve used in the past for classic insurance, linking this post from the 1st of August this year 

 

https://www.footmanjames.co.uk/blog/classic-industry-need-young-to-survive?utm_source=SilverpopMailing&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The Classic Dashboard - Flex Banner - DC - CCC 200822 (1)&utm_content=&spMailingID=34456076&spUserID=NDkzODkzMjIyNzg0S0&spJobID=2243828250&spReportId=MjI0MzgyODI1MAS2

 

anyone else from other areas get anything similar 😄

 

Edited August 20, 2022 by Bunion

[Linus27]

5 hours ago, skankdelvar said:

 

In 2021 the Billboard Top 200 Albums of The Year contained not one new rock album. The 'youngest' rock artists in the Billboard 2021 chart were the Foos (based on sales of their old stuff) whose new album sold a miserable 70,000 units in its debut week but didn't even make it into the year's chart.

 

The top 10 Billboard rock artists of 2021 included The Beatles, Fleetwood Mac, AC DC, Nirvana, Queen, Metallica and Pink Floyd.

 

Lots of people listening to rock. Not so many people listening to new rock.

 

 

 

Plus is 2021, the most popular genre of music was Hip Hop/R&B followed by Pop and Electronic and on Spotify, the most played genre was Hip Hop followed by pop.

 

 

[tegs07]

Im not sure Rock has ever been as predominant in the general population as we think. Certain musicians are remembered as they wrote such decent music it survives across many generations but a quick google of uk top selling singles of the 1960s, 70s and 80s shows that other than the expected Beatles and Stones many of the legendary artists barely have a foothold.

Sure they had a big sway in the music press and album sales but were not as omnipresent as would be expected.

Most of the bands I loved in the 80s and 90s made far less money and received less airplay than Banarama or Wham!/Bros.

My kids definitely play songs by Stone Roses, The Cure and The Specials though and haven’t even heard of Bananarama.

 

I don’t think rock is quite dead yet, it’s just having a lie down. 

Edited August 20, 2022 by tegs07

[Adey]

The 59 Les Paul is only going to get comparatively cheaper over time.

 

Of the 600 or so made in 1959, there are only about 3000 remaining. And that number continues to rise...

[Ed_S]

I reckon it comes down to the difference between value and significance when you say 'worth'. Some will see the cash value of these instruments, some will see the significance of them, and for either reason some who are able due to finances or connections will continue to acquire them irrespective of their 'generation'. The balance of significance will probably change over time from "it was Pete/Gary/Kirk's guitar" to "it's a thing that's over two hundred years old" or "it's made of a tree that no longer grows", meaning they will probably be of variable interest to different groups over time. The value will fluctuate due to external factors as is the norm, and periods of reduced interest, accidents, malicious damage, natural disasters, whatever.. will eventually reduce numbers to the point where the examples that remain become "priceless", which at the same time precludes their use, prohibits their sale and becomes their tacit significance to everyone who holds them in no other regard as they look at them in a museum.

 

Apparently I'm a millennial, and personally I have no interest in old guitars that anyone else owned - I like new things than only I've owned. I have friends the same age who feel the absolute opposite.

[lemmywinks]

54 minutes ago, Adey said:

The 59 Les Paul is only going to get comparatively cheaper over time.

 

Of the 600 or so made in 1959, there are only about 3000 remaining. And that number continues to rise...

 

Does make you wonder how many of the vintage guitars in private collections are very good counterfeits and how many dealers know about it. I remember the Music Ground crooks getting caught with faked up vintage amps a while back.

[ezbass]

1 hour ago, Adey said:

The 59 Les Paul is only going to get comparatively cheaper over time.

 

Of the 600 or so made in 1959, there are only about 3000 remaining. And that number continues to rise...

 

49 minutes ago, lemmywinks said:

 

Does make you wonder how many of the vintage guitars in private collections are very good counterfeits and how many dealers know about it. I remember the Music Ground crooks getting caught with faked up vintage amps a while back.

A number of those ‘59 Les Pauls are refinished Gold Tops, still possibly a ‘59, just not an original ‘burst.

[leftybassman392]

What a fascinating discussion!

 

For the record:

 

I'm a boomer (mid-boom, thanks for asking);

I have a couple of instruments that might conceivably qualify as having vintage value (although the '64 Ricky 345 - one of only two made that year - is long gone), one of which has a bit of (albeit minor) provenance. Both are magnificent instruments in their own right irrespective of their age.

 

That said, the guitar I pick up most these days is my Rob Williams custom Tele, made for me around 9 years ago. Oh, and my Faith Mercury parlour acoustic, handed to me personally by Patrick Eggle around 4 years ago.

 

 

[Kiwi]

4 hours ago, Adey said:

The 59 Les Paul is only going to get comparatively cheaper over time.

 

Of the 600 or so made in 1959, there are only about 3000 remaining. And that number continues to rise...

 

2 hours ago, ezbass said:

 

A number of those ‘59 Les Pauls are refinished Gold Tops, still possibly a ‘59, just not an original ‘burst.

Cough. 
 

5 hours ago, Kiwi said:

Funnily enough, it's estimated that over a thousand 59 Les Paul sunburst flame tops are left out of a total production volume of about 643 (according to burstserial.com).  Mainly because in the late 60's it wasn't unknown for some players started to get 58 goldtops stripped and recapped with a quilted top.  Or sometimes just refinished with a sunburst.  Ed Roman was infamous for doing this and then flogging the modded instruments as original sunbursts with a refinish.

 

[ezbass]

3 minutes ago, Kiwi said:

 

Cough. 
 

 

TL:DR   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Apologies 

[drTStingray]

4 hours ago, ezbass said:

 

A number of those ‘59 Les Pauls are refinished Gold Tops, still possibly a ‘59, just not an original ‘burst.

The gold tops continued to be made through a lot of 1958 so there were comparatively few bursts made in the latter part of 1958 - they have a more chunky neck profile. 

 

1959 is the only full year of bursts - they have a slimmer neck profile. 
 

Bursts are the only guitars with the top joint down the middle - stripped gold tops do not have the joint down the middle. 
 

The likelihood is the original now famous people who bought these bursts bought them as a nice looking Les Paul as a relatively cheap used guitar (it is thought the model was introduced to combat the sunburst Strat). Lasted till 1960 when replaced by the SG.

 

There are plenty of articles available on the subject (on line and in print). 

Edited August 20, 2022 by drTStingray

[Misdee]

Someone (not me) ought to go into a vintage guitar shop and warn them that their stock will soon be worthless because their customer base will soon mostly be dead or in a nursing home. See if they panic and offer a big discount.

.

I can remember  the early 1980's when "digital" was a magic word and some very silly people tried to tell us that the guitar was on its way out and synthesisers would be the preeminent musical instrument from now on. How did that one turn out?

 

There is about as much chance of vintage guitars becoming worthless as there is of Ryan Giggs being asked to be the new presenter of Women's Hour on BBC Radio 4. Aspiring guitarists will always to be drawn to the romance and enchantment associated with old guitars and, as ever, the law of supply and demand will ensure high prices.

 

[lemmywinks]

7 minutes ago, Misdee said:

I can remember  the early 1980's when "digital" was a magic word and some very silly people tried to tell us that the guitar was on its way out and synthesisers would be the preeminent musical instrument from now on. How did that one turn out?

 

 

 

That kinda did happen, the majority of modern music isn't guitar based (might not even be a bass guitar on the recording) and even live drums are often time aligned. Younger generations have a lot of options if they want to make music and less of them are picking up guitars.

[chris_b]

Is it just Boomers who are buying vintage instruments?

 

I would have thought they are actually being bought by a much wider range of ages.

[Misdee]

28 minutes ago, lemmywinks said:

 

 

That kinda did happen, the majority of modern music isn't guitar based (might not even be a bass guitar on the recording) and even live drums are often time aligned. Younger generations have a lot of options if they want to make music and less of them are picking up guitars.

I agree with you entirely that music has in effect become an adjunct of the computer industry, but I would venture that even more young people are talking up the guitar than ever before. Technology makes it easier for non- musicians to make music you are absolutely right, but I don't see how it has detracted from the popularity of the guitar. To the contrary, I think that it has added to the guitar's ( and other instruments) appeal because everyone thinks success is within their grasp.

 

I am hoping against hope that whoever the new PM is will introduce emergency legislation to outlaw young people becoming aspiring singer-songwriters and instead put them to work shovelling coal in power stations for a pittance in order to bring down energy bills.( That will give them something to write songs about!) Event then, there would still be enough young hopefuls to keep the guitar industry going into any forseeable future.

[sykilz]

My first bass ( in 1983) was a jv Squier precision bass, think it was £130, theyre worth a reasonable amount now, but I trashed it in the early 90's because I thought it was an old mans bass and was basically firewood, so went out and got me a Washburn 5 string with smaller body and pointy headstock. Do I know how to ROCK!!!!!??????? Or what???!!!!!!!

[Chris2112]

Given the enduring trend for old tat in both the guitar and bass world, I doubt anyone with a load of cash parked in some smokey old Fenders or Gibsons has much to worry about. 

[martin8708]

The demise of vintage guitar values has been predicted for a number of years now , possibly by those who don’t own one , or those who dont  agree with the rather lofty values attributed to what is basically a bit of wood /plastic /steel cobbled together in a factory in the late 50’s / 60’s .

I have one or two pre CBS instruments that are used weekly ( rehearsals and gigged ) , I would love to get another , but for some inexplicable reason , their prices just keep going up , so they are well and truly out of my reach .

Trying to predict the market is probably similar to predicting the stock market , just when you think something going to nosedive , it’s shoots through the roof .
 

[Drax]

5 hours ago, chris_b said:

Is it just Boomers who are buying vintage instruments?

 

I would have thought they are actually being bought by a much wider range of ages.

Fair point. Gen X definitely, and of course some Millennials are now in their 40’s .. 

[Kiwi]

9 hours ago, drTStingray said:

Bursts are the only guitars with the top joint down the middle - stripped gold tops do not have the joint down the middle. 

Yes, and there are some goldtops-refinished-as-bursts out there that have maple caps with an off centre glue line.  It wasn't so important back then.  They probably just wanted something that looked like a burst from the audience.

[Guest]

I'm having trouble getting boomers as a term and lack that perspective; meaning I don't get it. If it is young people being angry at older people then more power to you. 

 

Regarding the value of vintage guitars: I do not think the boomers nor the borrowers would have any say to the value of vintage guitars. Of course if everything falls apart a bat would be preferable but until that point I do think their value will hold up. Wether it's deserved or not.

 

I belive they will still be sought after by musicians wanting a particular instrument, and people who have an interest in the history, the craftsmanship, or people who just an overblown perception of themselves and want to have a conversation piece on the wall.

Or enthusiasts wanting to have them their private "museum".

 

I don't see their value crashing. I don't buy into the idea that vintage instruments sound better than newly made ones but I do appreciate the craftsmanship, and the wood they had access to was top quality. (They should of course never had access to so much wood from the rain forests of south America.). 

I do want some of the instruments that made the music that moved the human race to singing, dancing and uprising to be kept and preserved for the future in some kind of museum.

This guitar kills fascists. There are plenty of them.

So there is history to take into account. 

 

I do however love my newer guitars and basses that don't carry the weight of history. I used to borrow a Gibson 25/50 from a friend when I was playing guitar in a band, a Fender Precision from another when playing bass. Loved playing them, but I was always nervous that something would happen to them. 

So I've bought mass produced bass and guitar now, love them and take care of them but they were never going to a museum. They're not important historically, they're mine.

 

That said, I have two old (70's) Gibson guitars I bought years ago after getting my first "real" daytime job.

 

A Les Paul Artisan 1976 with three pickups.

It is a stunningly beautiful guitar. The craftsmanship is impeccable. Google tells me 2200 were made. I really think it is one of them "they don't make's like this anymore". It was made in Nashville and all the inlays are still present. It is a joy to play but mostly it lives in it's case. 

 

I also own a Les Paul Personal.

Production numbers are said to be 146. Some say 346 if I remember correctly. The enthusiasts/owners go for 146 of course. A very low number in any case.

There's very little information to find of them. They are a very strange breed of the low impedance line that Les Paul himself made, hence the name, and unsurprisingly they did not catch on. The damned hippies were coming.

It is such a beautiful and strange guitar: there is an XLR output top left on the body for a gooseneck microphone to talk in-between songs, and there is a volume control for said output. Dead handy.

 

I bought it from a Swedish priest living in what was basically nowhere. I don't think it was played at all, most of the services were seemingly done solo. By the look of his face when I tried it out he preferred it silent. But it is a stunning guitar.

 

 

This all leads me to the thoughts I've had for years.

I'm not a museum.

I want them in capable hands who love these guitars and want to use them, or in real a museum.

A museum pays me premium, a player does not.

I have been thinking of reaching out to a jazz guitarist I admire but I doubt he dreams of it.

The guitars deserves to be played vs I want my money. To be honest I want both but them being played is absolutely worth something to me.  

 

Sorry for going on

 

Edited August 21, 2022 by HornetPinata
waffle and removal of other waffle.

[Downunderwonder]

19 minutes ago, HornetPinata said:

I'm having trouble getting boomers as a term

Still? It's a corruption of very old slang for the generation that was born in the baby boom that followed World War II. ''Baby Boomers''.

 

One day, relatively recently, some smart smart derrière GenX or Y or summat took exception to the correction of the errors of his ways by a senior citizen and dismissed them with the retort ''Ok Boomer''. Meaning ''I hear you but you are irrelevant to me''. This made the news because Boomers watch the news and this was important.