Will Vintage Guitars Be Worthless When Boomers Are Gone?

[Guest]

6 minutes ago, Downunderwonder said:

Still? It's a corruption of very old slang for the generation that was born in the baby boom that followed World War II. ''Baby Boomers''.

 

One day, relatively recently, some smart smart derrière GenX or Y or summat took exception to the correction of the errors of his ways by a senior citizen and dismissed them with the retort ''Ok Boomer''. Meaning ''I hear you but you are irrelevant to me''. This made the news because Boomers watch the news and this was important. 

Thanks for explaining, I appreciate it. 

 

I think I had an idea that it was something like this but having been livid at the generation above mine in my younger days I did not want them to feel deprived of their fury not getting acknowledged by the older generation. 

 

They should be angry. And they should hate that I want them to be.

 

 

 

[Kiwi]

4 hours ago, Drax said:

Fair point. Gen X definitely, and of course some Millennials are now in their 40’s .. 

I have to admit turning down the opportunity to buy a 1965 Jazz about 15 years ago for £3500 for two reasons:
1) It was light but fragile. I was paranoid about something breaking, even as innocuous as a solder joint, and losing value on it.
2) I didn't like the idea of thousands of quid being tied up in an asset that was so easy to carry.  It would never be gigged because I would be in sentry mode the whole time and that would undermine the satisfaction of owning it to a large degree.

 

Ironically, another one of my basses has surpassed that in value by some margin so I find myself in that situation regardless.

[leschirons]

On 19/08/2022 at 16:04, skankdelvar said:

I suppose these things might go in cycles. The whole vintage electric guitar market sprang out of rock about fifty years ago and while rock continued to pertain, so did the interest in vintage gear. Indeed, Rock had a good run from 1956-2000(-ish) and the relative longevity and wealth of its fans has kept the vintage market alive.

 

However much we'd like to believe otherwise, Rock is now no longer mainstream. In the next 20 years Rock will become (if it hasn't already) a minority interest sub-genre of popular music like Jazz and Folk. If hardly anyone's playing Rock, where's the value in a '73 Strat?

 

Hopefully Rock will not become as obscure a sub-genre as rag-time*. It might even come back one day but then I'm still waiting for the music hall revival. Where have you gone, Harry Lauder, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you.

 

So, yeah, collapse in market values inbound except for the choicest of pieces with some sort of interesting provenance. Different for acoustic guitars, perhaps, less genre-tainted.

 

On the other hand, there's still interest in making music. Strong market in vintage studio gear; interesting examples of, say, old optical compressors, much rarer than mass-produced guitars.

 

* Nothing wrong with rag-time. It just doesn't sell much these days.
 

 

Vintage guitars will, in my opinion continue to be sought after. Of course, there are players who insist that this or that 1965 whatever sounds and and plays better than a new one, but people simply like to own stuff that others don't or can't.

You can buy a waterproof watch for £19.99 that keeps infinitely better time than any Rolex yet, if folks have the money, they will happily pay £10,000 for a 30 year old tatty GMT and risk having their arm chopped off for it on a Saturday night in town.

 

The reason my reply has quoted this one is down to the referenced example of a 73 Strat which I found interesting as there was a time when only pre CBS was the main interest. The 70s period instruments were considered bad quality crap however, now all the pre CBS stuff is safely locked away with investment bankers or in Joe Bonamassa's bedroom, stuff like 70s Strats have become the new vintage purely, because that's what's left to buy. At some point, it'll be 80s Strats no doubt.

[sykilz]

Not directly relevant, but.....Foo Fighters guitar expected to fetch £30k at Wiltshire auction https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-wiltshire-62623636

[Sibob]

On 21/08/2022 at 10:44, leschirons said:

Vintage guitars will, in my opinion continue to be sought after. Of course, there are players who insist that this or that 1965 whatever sounds and and plays better than a new one, but people simply like to own stuff that others don't or can't.

You can buy a waterproof watch for £19.99 that keeps infinitely better time than any Rolex yet, if folks have the money, they will happily pay £10,000 for a 30 year old tatty GMT and risk having their arm chopped off for it on a Saturday night in town.

 

The reason my reply has quoted this one is down to the referenced example of a 73 Strat which I found interesting as there was a time when only pre CBS was the main interest. The 70s period instruments were considered bad quality crap however, now all the pre CBS stuff is safely locked away with investment bankers or in Joe Bonamassa's bedroom, stuff like 70s Strats have become the new vintage purely, because that's what's left to buy. At some point, it'll be 80s Strats no doubt.

Compounded by the fact that we are, largely, sentimental for the instruments of our youth, and so ‘vintage guitars’ will always be relevant to certain players. It’s not something that is exclusive to boomers (my feeling is that some want it to be), it’s just that they happened to be at the start of the vintage electric guitar boom.

Which I’m fine with as a millennial with a love of old basses, vintage double basses require mortgages haha

 

Si

[bass_dinger]

If they are good instruments, they will retain value.  So, relatively fewer people play violin now, compared to 1680s, when the city of Cremona was able to support a whole violin making industry.  Yet those Amati, Guarneri and Stradivari violins still sell.  

That's down to quality.

 

 

Now, if we were talking about Hello Kitty guitars, their popularly will fade once all the people who remember that phenomenon pass away.  

That's down to fashion and fads.

 

The question is, are 1962 Strats Cremona, or Hello Kitty?

 

 

 

   

[meterman]

There’s also the ‘birth year instrument’ factor, which may or may not play a part in whether certain guitars hold their value or continue to increase in value.

 

I did a fairly brief stint working for a company that specialised in selling vintage guitars and basses, and would be asked on a daily basis if we could source a 1976 Fender Strat, or an ‘82 Precision, or a 1967 Tele, or ‘79 Jazz  or whatever. And folks would pay whatever the asking price was for those instruments just because they were manufactured in the same year the customer was born. Not because they were otherwise sought after, just because they were ‘birth year’ instruments.

 

Personally I found (and continue to find) this to be irrational sentimentality. Like the guy wanting any ‘83 Strat, it just had to be an ‘83, when a MIM reissue would probably knock it out the park. But it happened all the time. It’s probably still a thing now, but how long it’ll continue to be a ‘thing’ I’ve no idea. 
 

[Dad3353]

3 minutes ago, meterman said:

...Personally I found (and continue to find) this to be irrational sentimentality...

 

I've been looking for decades now for a 1950 Telecaster; none to be had. They've all been snapped up ages ago, I suppose. 

[bass_dinger]

27 minutes ago, meterman said:

 It’s probably still a thing now, but how long it’ll continue to be a ‘thing’ I’ve no idea. 
 

Until the people who want to buy a birth year guitar, are no longer with us.  Nobody much is buying a 1920s Gibson Mandolin because it matches their birth year! 

 

Actually, my mate Dorian Grey just bought a birth year Stradivarius - he is very good, but he tells me that is because he has put in his 10,000 weeks.  Of course, he meant to say "10,000 hours " . . .  

 

Birth year is a fad. Quality persists.  

 

  

[FinnDave]

I have never felt the need to buy a 1957 Precision bass - and if I did, I would expect it to look as old and worn out as I am!

[meterman]

1 hour ago, Dad3353 said:

 

I've been looking for decades now for a 1950 Telecaster; none to be had. They've all been snapped up ages ago, I suppose. 

We had a 1952 Telecaster for sale shortly before I quit the job, the asking price was more than my current house cost. Bonkers!

[Richard R]

I want to buy a '67 Rickenbacker, because obviously it matches my IQ.

[Dan Dare]

Vintage instruments, like vintage cameras, cars, etc, etc will always be in demand and not just by musicians. An enormous number of them are owned purely as investments by people who can hardly play, if at all.

 

For every Joe Bonamassa (who is a real player as well as a well-known collector), there are hundreds of architects, bankers and wealthy weekend warriors who have money to burn and who are looking for something to invest it in. Their instruments are usually kept in secure storage and rarely used for their intended purpose.

 

As long as musical instruments are seen as investments, that situation will continue and prices will be likely to hold up.

Edited August 22, 2022 by Dan Dare

[TrevorR]

On 19/08/2022 at 16:59, SubsonicSimpleton said:

Ultra rare and valuable instruments (like 59 Les Pauls) will propably hold their value, but I can't see the inflated prices that people are asking now for unremarkable 70s,80s instruments being sustainable in the long term.

I enjoyed the video as a whole but was disappointed that they stuck squarely with discussing flame top vintage burst Les Pauls from ‘59 etc… chances are they will be still be mega bucks in the future. Your question is the much more interesting question. Will your ‘78 Jazz or Strat still be pulling in 4 figures (equivalent adjusted for inflation) in 20 years time. Back in the 80s when I was starting out these were universally scorned and characterised as rubbish instruments with poor QC, over heavy bodies, shonky 3 screw neck joints, weak electronics, over thick varnish… and barely worth throwing away when you could get a nice 80s Japanese instrument instead…

 

…now they’re “vintage” and “highly desirable”. Will that last? THAT’S the conversation I’d love to hear those guys having!

[diskwave]

Is a Stradivarious worthless? Nope. People will eventually get sick of where music has gone (currently half way thru its deathroes I would say) and then return to the good ole days...ie the blues, 60's 70's rock, chart stuff, groove stuff, etc and those instruments will go off the scale.

Edited August 24, 2022 by greavesbass

[kodiakblair]

24 minutes ago, greavesbass said:

People will eventually get sick of where music has gone (currently half way thru its deathroes I would say) and then return to the good ole days...ie the blues, 60's 70's rock, chart stuff, groove stuff, etc and those instruments will go off the scale.

Will they ?

 

There's 18 apprentices at work, aged 17 to 22. These lads are out every weekend , not one of them goes to live bands. None of frequent pubs with live bands either. If they go to a festival it's for the experience not the bands.

 

The world has moved on so far they don't even count those genres as genres, it's just old music.

[msb]

I’m expecting vintage prices to drop about the time it comes for me to start selling stuff.

There’s quite a few young ones coming up though , that have totally bought into the vintage thing.

[Lozz196]

1 hour ago, kodiakblair said:

Will they ?

 

There's 18 apprentices at work, aged 17 to 22. These lads are out every weekend , not one of them goes to live bands. None of frequent pubs with live bands either. If they go to a festival it's for the experience not the bands.

 

The world has moved on so far they don't even count those genres as genres, it's just old music.

Our younglings at work are pretty much the same. They’ve all recently been to see Coldplay but wouldn’t dream of local live music.

[msb]

We’ve always had a good local music scene here. In all genres. That also translates to a surprising number of older instruments around. 

[Count Bassy]

They'll always have value as firewood.

[diskwave]

33 minutes ago, Lozz196 said:

They’ve all recently been to see Coldplay

When I was a teen back in the 70's I was the only young person at work who went out to pubs see live local music...so nothings changed. Anyway

not surprised.  A CP show is the biggest safe space on the planet.

[miles'tone]

Young classical musicians love centuries old music and covet instruments from the 1700s etc. 

Mid to late 20th century guitar music saturated the planet more than any other kind of music ever has or probably will. The instruments from that time are never going to be worthless.

 

[NikNik]

Do you mean GHS Boomers?

 

Thread TL/DR if mentioned already. 

[NikNik]

On 19/08/2022 at 22:10, adamg67 said:

 

My guess (and that's all it is) is that Capris will come back down again, because they only mean anything to the generation that had them when they were youngish. This is a more specific version of one the opinions being made in the original vid, which is that certain guitars mean something to people of a certain age. Strats got slightly ditched a bit for offset style guitars arouind Nirvana time, and maybe will get a bit of the same effect.

Not if they are Rickenbacker Capris.😁

[OliverBlackman]

On 24/08/2022 at 12:48, Lozz196 said:

Our younglings at work are pretty much the same. They’ve all recently been to see Coldplay but wouldn’t dream of local live music.

How young we talking? At 31 me and my wife were probably the youngest around us. I don’t see anywhere near as much music as I used to in my twenties but still try a few a year. Having said that I’m currently in Barbados and the resort has some great live music (Caribbean) every night.