GAS and the cost of living

[lownote]

Anyone noticed a slow down in the BC marketplace? Might seem a no-brainer that less free money around means less buying, but I anyway react the opposite, buying comfort toys rather than essentials when things are tight. I only ask because I had a reasonably sale-able set of kit at a good price on here recently that didn't sell after weeks.  And elsewhere I've a slug of sax kit on commission sale and the market's gone stone dead.

[tegs07]

Things are starting to slow down in the BC market place and the wider economy. I think there is a growing realisation that high prices are becoming embedded and are proving hard to shift. Attempts to do so are making life difficult for people with mortgages and unsecured debt on things like credit cards and other loan repayments. There is less money available for non essential spending.

It’s likely going to be a tough few years whilst the mess is cleared down. Sadly the UK chose the long grinding path rather than the short but brutal route back to growth.

 

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by tegs07

[Aidan63]

There's so much stuff for sale on all market places so generally buyers are spoilt for choice;

reasonably priced (where seller bought it cheap, both new and used, some years ago and is also happy to pay for the use of it so isn't using the new inflated price of stuff as yardstick to pricing used) stuff sells, but then so does some of the frankly overpriced (maybe different dynamics in different price points and 'vintage' market), but maybe the not so special run of the mill stuff is hard to shift as people may be less inclined to 'buy to try' as worried they won't be able to shift it at same price if they don't like it.

But for most paying the bills and buying food and looking after the kids' needs/wants are the priority

[snorkie635]

Agree with the comments above. Added to that, some (not all) prices for 2nd-hand gear are ridiculous. I realise that the 'market and demand' create these inflated prices, but those of 70's Fender Jazz basses and Wals, to my mind are crazy. Obviously, many will not agree with me, but how many basses do dentists need? 😉

[tegs07]

5 minutes ago, snorkie635 said:

Agree with the comments above. Added to that, some (not all) prices for 2nd-hand gear are ridiculous. I realise that the 'market and demand' create these inflated prices, but those of 70's Fender Jazz basses and Wals, to my mind are crazy. Obviously, many will not agree with me, but how many basses do dentists need? 😉

How many stamps that will never be used or bottles of wine that will never be drunk does anyone need?

[snorkie635]

3 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

How many stamps that will never be used or bottles of wine that will never be drunk does anyone need?

Totally agree. 👍

[neepheid]

I've shut up shop right now.  Too much adulting to do.  I've noped so many tasty looking things by saying "that's a car clutch", or "that's getting my utilities account back on an even keel", or "that's money I need to save to insure against whatever the next effing domestic disaster is", etc.

[tegs07]

2 minutes ago, neepheid said:

I've shut up shop right now.  Too much adulting to do.  I've noped so many tasty looking things by saying "that's a car clutch", or "that's getting my utilities account back on an even keel", or "that's money I need to save to insure against whatever the next effing domestic disaster is", etc.

I think the wider economy is about 6 months away from this conclusion.

[neepheid]

1 minute ago, tegs07 said:

I think the wider economy is about 6 months away from this conclusion.

 

Well indeed, the last time we were here I had to have a rather painful fire sale and I'd rather get ahead of it this time and avoid that if at all possible.

[Hellzero]

Furthermore, thanks to the Brexit, the marketplace is even smaller, don't forget that very important point and most of the asking prices are, as said above, ridiculously high.

[Dan Dare]

6 minutes ago, Hellzero said:

most of the asking prices are, as said above, ridiculously high.

 

This. The market decides, as always. If you don't get a bite on something at the price you're asking, you can either keep it or ask for less. The market is, of course, completely dependant on the state of the economy, but we have to operate in the world we live in, rather than the one we'd like to live in.

[tegs07]

7 minutes ago, Dan Dare said:

 

This. The market decides, as always. If you don't get a bite on something at the price you're asking, you can either keep it or ask for less. The market is, of course, completely dependant on the state of the economy, but we have to operate in the world we live in, rather than the one we'd like to live in.

Pretty sure you were one of the posters that gave me the biggest beating when I was urging some restraint on pouring gasoline onto the inflationary bonfire. Sadly most of my worst fears are being realised and it’s starting to get pretty unpleasant.

Inflation is becoming entrenched and the effects of tackling it is starting to cause real pain for those with debt, particularly mortgages and rents.

Hopefully you may be able to see that I wasn’t posting out of malice but with a genuine concern for ordinary people trying to put a roof over their heads.

 

Edited June 11, 2023 by tegs07

[martin8708]

In the old days (pre-pandemic?? ) , the second hand market value of instruments seemed to be approx 1/2 to 2/3 of new retail price , with factors such as condition / scarcity/ demand nudging the prices a bit higher or lower .

Second hand prices are now a lot closer to retail price , and there seems little difference between private sale price and second hand from a music shop .

I have been scanning the market for a nice second hand 000 acoustic guitar , and it’s the same guitars for months and months that sit on reverb /fretboard / eBay ( shudder ) and the music shops that I consider to be too expensive , nothing changes , nothing sells .

[snorkie635]

2 minutes ago, martin8708 said:

In the old days (pre-pandemic?? ) , the second hand market value of instruments seemed to be approx 1/2 to 2/3 of new retail price , with factors such as condition / scarcity/ demand nudging the prices a bit higher or lower .

Second hand prices are now a lot closer to retail price , and there seems little difference between private sale price and second hand from a music shop .

I have been scanning the market for a nice second hand 000 acoustic guitar , and it’s the same guitars for months and months that sit on reverb /fretboard / eBay ( shudder ) and the music shops that I consider to be too expensive , nothing changes , nothing sells .

With you there. So much sitting for months and the prices rarely drop. Some private sellers seem to take their prices from a shop's advert and ignore that the shops pay rates/rent etc. sad state of affairs.

[Dan Dare]

3 hours ago, tegs07 said:

Pretty sure you were one of the posters that gave me the biggest beating when I was urging some restraint on pouring gasoline onto the inflationary bonfire. Sadly most of my worst fears are being realised and it’s starting to get pretty unpleasant.

Inflation is becoming entrenched and the effects of tackling it is starting to cause real pain for those with debt, particularly mortgages and rents.

Hopefully you may be able to see that I wasn’t posting out of malice but with a genuine concern for ordinary people trying to put a roof over their heads.

 

 

Really? Can't say I remember. How is what I say above (that we have to recognise that money is tight for many and accept that we are likely to get less for what we wish to sell) relevant to that? If anything, I am agreeing that inflation/the reduction in the purchasing power of money is forcing many - whether buyers or sellers - to cut their coat according to their cloth.

Edited June 11, 2023 by Dan Dare

[tegs07]

1 hour ago, Dan Dare said:

 

Really? Can't say I remember. How is what I say above (that we have to recognise that money is tight for many and accept that we are likely to get less for what we wish to sell) relevant to that? If anything, I am agreeing that inflation/the reduction in the purchasing power of money is forcing many - whether buyers or sellers - to cut their coat according to their cloth.

Go back and read my comments and your replies in the strikes thread, where I was warning that inflation busting pay rises would potentially fuel inflation and were a major factor that the bank of england were monitoring in their rate hike decisions. They clearly warned that any whiff of a wage price spiral would lead to rates ratcheting faster and harder.

I was trying hard to say that inflation is really hard on the lowest earners and middle income earners like myself would need to take on some pain and not push for inflation busting pay increases, as it would directly impact on driving interest rates higher.

When public and private debts are so high raising rates are really punitive. I warned on the impact that would be felt on mortgages, rents and pensions if rates rose. I also warned on what happens when yields increase, particularly with short term gilts.

Borrowing costs increase and volatility kicks in making a recession far more likely. After taking a kicking I warned you would understand in around 18 months. Its now nearly 12 months in and I’m afraid it’s looking ugly.

Edited June 11, 2023 by tegs07

[Dad3353]

You are Cassandra and I claim my £5..! 

[tegs07]

44 minutes ago, Dad3353 said:

You are Cassandra and I claim my £5..! 

Indeed. I was called that in 2007 as well. To be fair I follow an economist nicknamed Dr.Doom so it’s not my doing.

 

Edit: Glad to see you back fighting fit.

Edited June 11, 2023 by tegs07

[Dan Dare]

2 hours ago, tegs07 said:

I was warning that inflation busting pay rises would potentially fuel inflation and were a major factor that the bank of england were monitoring in their rate hike decisions. They clearly warned that any whiff of a wage price spiral would lead to rates ratcheting faster and harder.

 

My word. Have you been seething about that for all this time? Where your argument falls down, of course, is that those we were discussing - rail, public service workers and similar - have not had a pay rise for at least 4 years. So it can't be pay rises (theirs, at any rate) that have caused the present spike in inflation, can it?

 

I get it. You, like me, are a middle income earner. You wish to preserve the distance between you and those at the bottom of the heap. Fine, but just be frank about it.

[tegs07]

1 hour ago, Dan Dare said:

 

My word. Have you been seething about that for all this time? Where your argument falls down, of course, is that those we were discussing - rail, public service workers and similar - have not had a pay rise for at least 4 years. So it can't be pay rises (theirs, at any rate) that have caused the present spike in inflation, can it?

 

I get it. You, like me, are a middle income earner. You wish to preserve the distance between you and those at the bottom of the heap. Fine, but just be frank about it.

Absolutely. Haven’t slept a wink since.

 

I see that despite all that is happening and how utterly crushing it is going to be for those poor sods re-mortgaging from 2% to around 6% over the coming months you still can’t understand my concerns. No I don’t wish to preserve a distance. It’s simply that there are a whole load of factors that are all colliding simultaneously that are driving up prices and some poor sods are likely to be repossessed as a result of the policy response to those factors. Four years ago the world was a different place.  A lot has happened over those four years that has made any increase in the money supply a pretty scary issue for an old fashioned monetarist like myself.

 

And still there is the inability to understand alongside the insults. For what it is worth I am deeply regretting a decision not to move to France a decade ago when I had the chance. A high tax socialist economy I personally identify with. What is happening in the UK is a right mess and will take years and a fair bit of hardship to sort out. A few % payrise is not going to touch the sides on a tripling of mortgage debt. And so the merry go round, goes round as the snake eats its tail.

 

Edit: To clarify yet again I fully support pay rises for those on lower tier paybands. Nurses and ticket inspectors need the money. Im not sure that middle managers,  senior IT staff and the like are in the same category of need. Us guys can take the hit. Or at least we could have 12 months ago before rates were hiked again and again to try and put a lid on things. It’s too late now.

Edited June 11, 2023 by tegs07

[lozkerr]

3 hours ago, Dad3353 said:

You are Cassandra and I claim my £5..! 

I might point out here that Cassandra was always right...

[snorkie635]

14 minutes ago, lozkerr said:

I might point out here that Cassandra was always right...

 

My God! I never knew the wife had an earlier identity!

[miles'tone]

15 minutes ago, lozkerr said:

I might point out here that Cassandra was always right...

Are we talking about Only Fools and Horses here?

[40hz]

I've said before a couple of times, I get the idea that 'something is only worth what someone is willing to pay' and I do agree with that to a point, but, truthfully, I think we can all give most basses a ball park figure, and more often than not, a lot of basses I've been interested in, are way over this. And, so, they sit around not being sold.

 

Again, I've said before, the new market for these once ubiquitous, meat and potatoes basses, is 5 years away from becoming outright unaffordable to all. At this rate of constant price rises, within 5 years, you'll be looking at 4k+ USA fenders and 5k+ Stingrays. At that point, I would suspect, the demand will drop heavily, they will then be sold and marketed as boutique instruments (a la Wal/Fodera/Alembic) and the current budget/import lines, are then, themselves, rebranded into the 'real thing'.

 

There's also been a huge shift in the industry towards more budget orientated models - brands like Sire are knocking out Basses of unbelievable quality for a low price, and absolutely cleaning up with it.

Edited June 11, 2023 by 40hz

[Dan Dare]

1 hour ago, tegs07 said:

Absolutely. Haven’t slept a wink since.

 

I see that despite all that is happening and how utterly crushing it is going to be for those poor sods re-mortgaging from 2% to around 6% over the coming months you still can’t understand my concerns. No I don’t wish to preserve a distance. It’s simply that there are a whole load of factors that are all colliding simultaneously that are driving up prices and some poor sods are likely to be repossessed as a result of the policy response to those factors. Four years ago the world was a different place.  A lot has happened over those four years that has made any increase in the money supply a pretty scary issue for an old fashioned monetarist like myself.

 

And still there is the inability to understand alongside the insults. For what it is worth I am deeply regretting a decision not to move to France a decade ago when I had the chance. A high tax socialist economy I personally identify with. What is happening in the UK is a right mess and will take years and a fair bit of hardship to sort out. A few % payrise is not going to touch the sides on a tripling of mortgage debt. And so the merry go round, goes round as the snake eats its tail.

 

Edit: To clarify yet again I fully support pay rises for those on lower tier paybands. Nurses and ticket inspectors need the money. Im not sure that middle managers,  senior IT staff and the like are in the same category of need. Us guys can take the hit. Or at least we could have 12 months ago before rates were hiked again and again to try and put a lid on things. It’s too late now.

 

Do you not see the inconsistencies in your position? You express sympathy for "those poor sods re-mortgaging from 2% to around 6% over the coming months", yet argue against pay rises for them. I am quite happy with my income. I have the good fortune to own my home outright, have a couple of pensions and a decent amount in savings and investments. I am able to survive comfortably. I am not certainly calling for increases for "middle managers,  senior IT staff and the like" and never did.

 

You state you "fully support pay rises for those on lower tier paybands" and then say that "a few % payrise is not going to touch the sides on a tripling of mortgage debt". The logical conclusion to that is that those low-paid public service workers need substantial increases.  And yet you oppose that, from memory of the previous exchange on here. I too would rather we had a system that is closer to that in France (although they are not without their problems). The consequences of Brexit make that highly unlikely, sadly.

 

So where do we go? People who are lower paid have to survive and they need substantially more income in order to do so. How do you suggest we square that circle?

 

"Insults"? Care to elaborate? Either I'm unaware when I'm insulting people or you are extraordinarily sensitive.