Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[peteb]

1 minute ago, tegs07 said:

The elephant is the room being China’s no limits agreement with Russia. If Trump is daft enough to legitimise Russian invasion then he is also green lighting China to invade Taiwan.

 

A powerful and prosperous Chinese ally is just another front for China to spread its sphere of influence and turn even more nations away from US economic and political dominance.

 

Add Africa and much of South America to the list and the USA is fast running out of continents.

 

 

 

As I've said before, I can foresee that you could even include Europe in that list in a few years time!  

 

[tegs07]

Just now, peteb said:

 

As I've said before, I can foresee that you could even include Europe in that list in a few years time!  

 

If there wasn’t a no limits agreement with Russia I suspect it would be happening already.

[peteb]

9 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

If there wasn’t a no limits agreement with Russia I suspect it would be happening already.

 

Exactly, if Trump's USA is now actively supporting Russia, then why not pick China as the lesser of two evils? At least China are more predictable and not likely to increase / withdraw support every four years! 

 

[tegs07]

3 minutes ago, peteb said:

 

Exactly, if Trump's USA is now actively supporting Russia, then why not pick China as the lesser of two evils? At least China are more predictable and not likely to increase / withdraw support every four years! 

 

It’s still too early to say what is bluff and bluster. Already the UK and EU are upping their defence spend, Ukraine is giving away rare earth resources.

 

It’s also too early to say exactly how far he can push things before any momentum can be tied up in legal action, in the midterms democrats might get more control and veto spending.

 

Im not ready to panic just yet.

[peteb]

42 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

It’s still too early to say what is bluff and bluster. Already the UK and EU are upping their defence spend, Ukraine is giving away rare earth resources.

 

It’s also too early to say exactly how far he can push things before any momentum can be tied up in legal action, in the midterms democrats might get more control and veto spending.

 

Im not ready to panic just yet.

 

I'm afraid that I panicking!  

 

Politics is about momentum. Trump has radically changed the agenda completely and forever. Regardless of the fact that he may well not be able to do what he says (and let's face it, Trump will disregard any legal hurdles if he possibly can), it still means that America's allies can never trust them again! 

 

America's place as a world power, i.e. the 'leader of the free world' has changed for good. Europe has to step up and take it's place and, frankly, it doesn't look like it is in a position to do so. China, for all of its issues, is starting to look as the safest option and the natural successor to the USA as the guarantor of peace among the major powers. 

 

China thinks in decades, but we (and America and Europe) have four-year election cycles. It isn't ideal, but at least they can be seen as reliable, where the USA no longer can. 

 

Edited Thursday at 12:36 by peteb

[Beedster]

11 minutes ago, peteb said:

 

I'm afraid that I panicking!  

 

Politics is about momentum. Trump has radically changed the agenda completely and forever. Regardless of the fact that he may well not be able to do what he says (and let's face it, Trump will disregard any legal hurdles if he possibly can), it still means that America's allies can never trust them again! 

 

America's place as a world power, i.e. the 'leader of the free world' has changed for good. Europe has to step up and take it's place and, frankly, it doesn't look like it is in a position to do so. China, for all of its issues, is starting to look as the safest option and the natural successor to the USA as the guarantor of peace among the major powers. It isn't ideal, but at least they can be seen as reliable, where the USA no longer can. 

 

 

That's quite a pessimistic view Pete, you could be right, but it's still quite pessimistic. Re America's allies never trusting them again, I think we as a nation look at the USA through rose tinted lenses, the rhetoric is 'Land of the free', the Constitution etc, but as a country it's tended to act with a mix of mercurial and often disastrous foreign policy, blatant and backfiring economic self-interest, and often pathological disregard for many of its own population. 

 

A very old a dear friend, now long gone, was a pilot in the RAF and had on several occasions to take part in joint NATO exercises with US forces. He said he and all his follow pilots dreaded them as the US military was the least organised, least well disciplined, yet most arrogant about it's own status of any that he had worked with. During exercises they had to be constantly vigilant to potential accidents resulting from poorly trained personal to poorly maintained or unsuitable technology to aircraft being where they shouldn't be to friendly fire (and he had some very good examples of each). No joke, he said he'd prefer actual combat to exercises with the US military. OK, one person's view, but I think the US - in military terms at least - was far less the leader of the free world and more one part of a delicate balance.     

[Staggering on]

As the March 4 tariff deadline approaches Trump has once again started to waffle on which tariffs will be applied and when, now saying some may be applied in April. Typical move to keep the whole situation off balance and the politicians and industries here are trying to figure out what to do, the tariff deadline has already been changed once. 🙄

[prowla]

1 hour ago, tegs07 said:

The elephant is the room being China’s no limits agreement with Russia. If Trump is daft enough to legitimise Russian invasion then he is also green lighting China to invade Taiwan.

 

 

Yep - I said that a couple of days ago.

[chris_b]

3 hours ago, peteb said:

It looks like Romania are giving up and just washing their hands of them! 

 

The UK has arrest warrants out for the Tate’s, so they should be flying directly here, and nowhere else!!!

[TimR]

Disaster Capitalism in full effect now.

[chris_b]

3 hours ago, peteb said:

It looks like Romania are giving up and just washing their hands of them! 

 

The UK has arrest warrants out for the Tate’s, so they should be flying directly here, and nowhere else!!!

[Beedster]

15 minutes ago, chris_b said:

The UK has arrest warrants out for the Tate’s, so they should be flying directly here, and nowhere else!!!

 

Trump got them out and they won't be going back to Rumania or UK on his watch. Musk is also a fan and has suggested that they have a role to play in future UK politics. Now of course the reasonable response would be "They're criminals, how could they play a role in politics......?"  

[tegs07]

2 hours ago, Staggering on said:

As the March 4 tariff deadline approaches Trump has once again started to waffle on which tariffs will be applied and when, now saying some may be applied in April. Typical move to keep the whole situation off balance and the politicians and industries here are trying to figure out what to do, the tariff deadline has already been changed once. 🙄

A big problem is that the stock market really doesn’t like volatility. It’s already massively overvalued and overhyped. Biden kept the liquidity and mood music very favourable. If the genius isn’t careful he will start a slump just as inflation starts to bite again. His approval ratings will slump just as quickly.

[Beedster]

1 hour ago, Beedster said:

 

That's quite a pessimistic view Pete, you could be right, but it's still quite pessimistic. Re America's allies never trusting them again, I think we as a nation look at the USA through rose tinted lenses, the rhetoric is 'Land of the free', the Constitution etc, but as a country it's tended to act with a mix of mercurial and often disastrous foreign policy, blatant and backfiring economic self-interest, and often pathological disregard for many of its own population. 

 

...and perhaps the 'Special Relationship' we hear so much about between UK and US was much like a romantic relationship between a neurotic and a narcissist, one falsely believing and hoping that they're really important to the other, the other knowing that the only important person in this relationship is themself....

 

  

[Beedster]

1 minute ago, tegs07 said:

A big problem is that the stock market really doesn’t like volatility. It’s already massively overvalued and overhyped. Biden kept the liquidity and mood music very favourable. If the genius isn’t careful he will start a slump just as inflation starts to bite again. His approval ratings will slump just as quickly.

 

....which might not be a bad thing. The only thing worse than an unpopular egotist in power is a popular egotist in power....

 

I genuinely think that he and his gang of clowns will be found out and reined-in well before 4-years, I just pray that he doesn't do too much damage in the meantime

[tegs07]

2 minutes ago, Beedster said:

 

....which might not be a bad thing. The only thing worse than an unpopular egotist in power is a popular egotist in power....

 

I genuinely think that he and his gang of clowns will be found out and reined-in well before 4-years, I just pray that he doesn't do too much damage in the meantime

Well a nice budget just passed packed with lovely tax cuts and drops in social spending will make for a nice retirement package. 

 

I think that you are right. The election was swung by promises to solve inflation and put more money back into ordinary Americans pockets, but the policies being rolled out will make people poorer in the short term which is the only term that people think in. They don’t want America to be Great Again in ten years time, people think in days, weeks and months.

[Beedster]

1 minute ago, tegs07 said:

Well a nice budget just passed packed with lovely tax cuts and drops in social spending will make for a nice retirement package. 

 

I think that you are right. The election was swung by promises to solve inflation and put more money back into ordinary Americans pockets, but the policies being rolled out will make people poorer in the short term which is the only term that people think in. They don’t want America to be Great Again in ten years time, people think in days, weeks and months.

 

I completely agree, and anyway there are three major problems with Trump's plan to return America to greatness

 

1. He hasn't got one

2. He hasn't got one

3. He hasn't got one

 

 

[Bilbo]

There is another aspect to that, Beedster.

 

He never had one.

He is incapable of having one.

He is being enabled by people who haven't got one either.

 

 

[Beedster]

Just now, Bilbo said:

There is another aspect to that, Beedster.

 

He never had one.

He is incapable of having one.

He is being enabled by people who haven't got one either.

 

 

 

Yep, that's about the truth of it mate

 

Re enabled, I read a lovely piece the other day that likened his relationship with the Republican party to an abusive marriage; the republicans married him out of self-interest and now are in too deep and can't extricate themselves despite seeing everything they believe in abused on a daily basis. But it will turn, I have great faith in the idea of the self-interest of the many wealthy people will eventually outweighing the self interest of the few wealthy people, so he will be gone, or at least rendered impotent 

[asingardenof]

18 hours ago, edstraker123 said:

Not buying it !

 

https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/oct/03/revealed-anti-oligarch-ukrainian-president-offshore-connections-volodymyr-zelenski

 

As for Starmer and his party - have you seen how many people are currently being made redundant in Higher Education - they've done nothing to help.

Indeed. A lecturer friend of mine is currently in the process of reapplying for her job for at least the second time.

[Beedster]

25 minutes ago, asingardenof said:

Indeed. A lecturer friend of mine is currently in the process of reapplying for her job for at least the second time.

 

It was inevitable in HE, it has been systematically over-employing both academic and non academic staff in line with various government agendas (e.g., widening participation) since the early 2000s, and since the Brown Report, the numbers have never (and would never) add up. Too many institutions also offered degree courses because they could (i.e, they attracted students) not because they should (i.e., they gave students a useful qualification), and recruited too many students into these courses in a bums on seats as opposed to match capacity to resources/quality assurance model, which meant that they inevitably recruited too many staff also. Then student numbers dropped, especially in the poorer courses at the poorer institutions.

 

Why did this happen? I worked at 8 UK universities over 25 years, most senior leaders wouldn't last 5-minutes in the real world of business, and most middle managers would simply never get employed anywhere but in HE, where all too often they fail, move sideways on 'Internal applicants only' type roles, fail again, and move sideways again. So UKHE is a disaster now, largely thanks to political manipulation for sure, but also to weak institutional and sector policies and leadership; VCs were too ready to take the cash 20 years ago without thinking about the consequences down the line. 

Edited Thursday at 17:04 by Beedster

[Obrienp]

41 minutes ago, asingardenof said:

Indeed. A lecturer friend of mine is currently in the process of reapplying for her job for at least the second time.

I don’t wish anybody to lose their job. However, a lot of the current financial difficulties of HE in the UK have been caused by the fall in foreign students in recent years. These students were a real cash cow for Universities because they paid absolutely top whack. The cash flow from foreign students may well have been hiding the systemic flaws and mismanagement in HE in the UK and England in particular. Whatever the case, with less money coming in, there is bound to be an adjustment in the sector.
 

The reduction in foreign student numbers is in large part due to the immigration and other policies of the last government. The Conservatives set about making the UK a less attractive place for foreigners to come to study. They also devalued the UK’s stock globally making it look less welcoming and frankly less prestigious. Unfortunately, the current Government doesn’t seem to be doing a lot to repair the damage: educating foreign elites is a projection of soft power and influence, as is foreign aid.

[Beedster]

2 minutes ago, Obrienp said:

I don’t wish anybody to lose their job. However, a lot of the current financial difficulties of HE in the UK have been caused by the fall in foreign students in recent years. These students were a real cash cow for Universities because they paid absolutely top whack. The cash flow from foreign students may well have been hiding the systemic flaws and mismanagement in HE in the UK and England in particular. Whatever the case, with less money coming in, there is bound to be an adjustment in the sector.
 

The reduction in foreign student numbers is in large part due to the immigration and other policies of the last government. The Conservatives set about making the UK a less attractive place for foreigners to come to study. They also devalued the UK’s stock globally making it look less welcoming and frankly less prestigious. Unfortunately, the current Government doesn’t seem to be doing a lot to repair the damage: educating foreign elites is a projection of soft power and influence, as is foreign aid.

 

Very good points 👍

[prowla]

8 minutes ago, Obrienp said:

I don’t wish anybody to lose their job. However, a lot of the current financial difficulties of HE in the UK have been caused by the fall in foreign students in recent years. These students were a real cash cow for Universities because they paid absolutely top whack. The cash flow from foreign students may well have been hiding the systemic flaws and mismanagement in HE in the UK and England in particular. Whatever the case, with less money coming in, there is bound to be an adjustment in the sector.
 

The reduction in foreign student numbers is in large part due to the immigration and other policies of the last government. The Conservatives set about making the UK a less attractive place for foreigners to come to study. They also devalued the UK’s stock globally making it look less welcoming and frankly less prestigious. Unfortunately, the current Government doesn’t seem to be doing a lot to repair the damage: educating foreign elites is a projection of soft power and influence, as is foreign aid.

The foreigners policies were all cockamamie - immigration went up, so what the heck was going on?

[chris_b]