Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[edstraker123]

3 hours ago, Obrienp said:

I don’t wish anybody to lose their job. However, a lot of the current financial difficulties of HE in the UK have been caused by the fall in foreign students in recent years. These students were a real cash cow for Universities because they paid absolutely top whack. The cash flow from foreign students may well have been hiding the systemic flaws and mismanagement in HE in the UK and England in particular. Whatever the case, with less money coming in, there is bound to be an adjustment in the sector.
 

The reduction in foreign student numbers is in large part due to the immigration and other policies of the last government. The Conservatives set about making the UK a less attractive place for foreigners to come to study. They also devalued the UK’s stock globally making it look less welcoming and frankly less prestigious. Unfortunately, the current Government doesn’t seem to be doing a lot to repair the damage: educating foreign elites is a projection of soft power and influence, as is foreign aid

I absolutely agree - the foreign students were a necessity given that home students fees nowhere near cover the costs of delivering the courses in a lot of areas and to increase fees to what they actually need to be would be political suicide. Labour have made things worse in an already difficult market with the increased employer NI and  are now considering restricting post graduation visas making the prospects of studying here even less appealing to foreign students, presumably to appease more right wing leaning voters. Mismanagement and managerial bloat is rife throughout the sector and I really think it has lost sight of what it is here to do. I think a lot of the redundancies currently happening are also an attempt to cut costs to fund partnerships with Indian institutions given the Chinese cash cows are running out.

Its sad as both me and the Mrs have both spent our careers in the sector and to witness its demise is really tragic. Many institutions employ thousands of staff so if any go completely under it will have a devastating effect on the local community.

 

The Trump effect though might be a positive as more students turn their back on studying in the USA and come here instead

Edited Thursday at 21:31 by edstraker123

[ped]

10 minutes ago, edstraker123 said:

 

 

The Trump effect though might be a positive as more students turn their back on studying in the USA and come here instead

Surely most of them voted for him, so maybe not?

[TimR]

Covid wreaked havoc on a world that was Just In Time. 

 

Old people think young are lazy.

 

The young are disenfranchised not lazy.

 

The food companies are pumping empty calories into people who are addicted to their output.

 

Working in an office is seen as more important and more valuable than being a doctor, nurse, cleaner, cook or farmer.

 

The gold standard measure of being successful is owning a house, with a nice car in the drive and two foreign holidays a year.

 

And Trump is going to solve this by getting people to pray to God and the US flag?

 

People need to get off their Smart Phones, exercise, eat well and protest.

 

 

 

 

[Al Krow]

If the US ends up with tariffs on EU goods (and vice versa) which is starting to look likely.

 

But Starmer secures a trade deal with Trump that avoids a tariff war between the UK and US, and given that we have an excellent trade agreement in place with the EU and with the Trans Pacific nations, then go figure: the UK suddenly becomes a great place to set up shop! Labour's growth agenda could be about to get a massive shot in the arm. Watch this space.

[edstraker123]

9 hours ago, ped said:

Surely most of them voted for him, so maybe not?

Sorry I meant from outside the USA - they are making it harder for foreign students to study there as well as who would want to go there with him as President !

 

How are things at your Instititition @ped ?

[Beedster]

10 hours ago, edstraker123 said:

Many institutions employ thousands of staff so if any go completely under it will have a devastating effect on the local community.

 

But this is why the redundancies have to happen. Without wishing to direct this at you (I still have a Uni position albeit no longer FT), I now work mostly in industry where businesses go under all of the time, often with thousands of people losing their jobs and also with devastating effects on communities, for example what's currently happening at Grangemouth. Like industry, universities have to modernise to remain competitive, and in the face of powerful tech, reducing demand, increasing costs, and legacy estates, this means redundancies. Too many UK universities (and that is part of the problem, there are too many UK universities) are simply clinging on to the old pre-2013 ideology. I totally get the reasons why - many academic leaders either started their careers or studies in the golden age and would refer that model to persist - but the redundancies have to happen in the same way they have to happen in industry, because if they don't entire universities will go under. 

[JoeEvans]

1 hour ago, edstraker123 said:

Sorry I meant from outside the USA - they are making it harder for foreign students to study there as well as who would want to go there with him as President !

 

How are things at your Instititition @ped ?

I gather that Chinese students in particular have been very put off by Trump and that in some academic areas (eg engineering), UK institutions are expecting a significant upturn in enrollments.

[Beedster]

21 minutes ago, JoeEvans said:

I gather that Chinese students in particular have been very put off by Trump and that in some academic areas (eg engineering), UK institutions are expecting a significant upturn in enrollments.

 

That assumes they can get visas, my research team is working with overseas PhD students who visit the UK for one year of their research and it can be a nightmare even despite their having registered on formal international research collaboration agreements. I know that's a slightly different case to a student registering with a UK university for the whole of their study, but I doubt it's all that different and it has got a whole lot worse apparently

[prowla]

56 minutes ago, Beedster said:

 

That assumes they can get visas, my research team is working with overseas PhD students who visit the UK for one year of their research and it can be a nightmare even despite their having registered on formal international research collaboration agreements. I know that's a slightly different case to a student registering with a UK university for the whole of their study, but I doubt it's all that different and it has got a whole lot worse apparently

 

IMHO, we should be encouraging bona-fide students, especially PhD ones - they enrich the country (not just financially).

I think the issue was that student visas could be used to come here to work with no intention of studying.

[tauzero]

9 hours ago, Al Krow said:

If the US ends up with tariffs on EU goods (and vice versa) which is starting to look likely.

 

But Starmer secures a trade deal with Trump that avoids a tariff war between the UK and US, and given that we have an excellent trade agreement in place with the EU and with the Trans Pacific nations, then go figure: the UK suddenly becomes a great place to set up shop! Labour's growth agenda could be about to get a massive shot in the arm. Watch this space.

 

We have a dreadful trade agreement in place with the EU. We need regulatory alignment, membership of the customs union, and membership of the single market.

[tegs07]

6 minutes ago, tauzero said:

 

We have a dreadful trade agreement in place with the EU. We need regulatory alignment, membership of the customs union, and membership of the single market.

TBH I think the entire EU needs to pivot off their current path. Continued expansion into Eastern bloc nations is ruffling Russian feathers and fuelling domestic far right agendas.

 

Some of Macron’s ideas have been on the money but getting that juggernaut to change direction is pretty difficult.

 

The time for change is now. With the USA going full isolation and conspiracy Europe offers an economic and military oasis of sanity and stability.

Edited Friday at 11:11 by tegs07

[Beedster]

1 hour ago, prowla said:

 

I think the issue was that student visas could be used to come here to work with no intention of studying.

 

I might be a little out of touch but at the time it started to affect us the issues were less related to employment and more to the threat of terrorism and radicalisation

[Beedster]

3 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

TBH I think the entire EU needs to pivot off their current path. Continued expansion into Eastern bloc nations is ruffling Russian feathers and fuelling domestic far right agendas.

 

This^

 

We've had Brexit

We've had Trump's first term

We've had Covid

We have Ukraine

We have Trump's second term

 

People, organisations, and institutions acting as if it's still 2010 are making themselves irrelevant and leaving worrying vacuums in their place

[chris_b]

10 hours ago, Al Krow said:

If the US ends up with tariffs on EU goods (and vice versa) which is starting to look likely.

 

But Starmer secures a trade deal with Trump that avoids a tariff war between the UK and US, and given that we have an excellent trade agreement in place with the EU and with the Trans Pacific nations, then go figure: the UK suddenly becomes a great place to set up shop! Labour's growth agenda could be about to get a massive shot in the arm. Watch this space.

 

I won't feel positive about a US trade deal until I know the NHS has been protected from US drug companies and super adulterated US food isn't included.

[Al Krow]

24 minutes ago, chris_b said:

 

I won't feel positive about a US trade deal until I know the NHS has been protected from US drug companies and super adulterated US food isn't included.

 

NHS will be safe,  as confirmed by our Health Secretary this morning. Frankly no political party can risk damaging it and hope to survive.

 

Food: the chlorinated chicken issue, right? As long as it's properly labelled shouldn't it be up to us, as adults, to decide whether we want cheaper US chicken or continue to pay more the non-chlorinated variety? Given that the US is the most litigious nation on earth if there was a whiff of harm arising from their food, there would have been plenty of claimants! And no one seems to worry to much about "adulterated" US food when they go on hols to the US?

[tegs07]

23 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

Food: the chlorinated chicken issue, right? As long as it's properly labelled shouldn't it be up to us, as adults, to decide whether we want cheaper US chicken or continue to pay more the non-chlorinated variety?

As I understand things the chlorination is a method of protecting against less stringent conditions in the rearing and processing of chicken.

There does seem to be a significant outbreak of bird flu in the US. I wonder if these things are related?

[tegs07]

Pete Hegseth, Defense Secretary

Elon Musk, Co-leader of the Department of Government Efficiency

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Health and Human Services Secretary

Dan Bongino to be second-in-command at FBI

 

I can’t help wondering if the Tate brothers are being flown in to be the new DEI tsars, based on some nominations and appointments?

 

 

Edited Friday at 12:20 by tegs07

[Beedster]

1 minute ago, tegs07 said:

Pete Hegseth, Defense Secretary

Elon Musk, Co-leader of the Department of Government Efficiency

Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Health and Human Services Secretary

Dan Bongino to be second-in-command at FBI

 

I can’t help wondering if the Tate brothers are being flown in to be the new DEI tsars?

 

I suspect they're going to be in with the Trump/Musk/Petersen gang pretty soon

[Agent 00Soul]

20 minutes ago, Beedster said:

 

I suspect they're going to be in with the Trump/Musk/Petersen gang pretty soon

 

That might help shore up the 18-30 male voters who swung their votes for Trump by a massive 56%.  Women the same age were still 40%, which is kind of wild when you think about it.  The thing that shows how out of touch I am as a 56 year old was how mainstream the Tates and their cohort are for people of a certain age: my 20 year old female intern, for example, didn't share their politics but still watched them and people like them from time to time.  She also watched Loose Women when she was home.  It's all just programming to her and her fellow teens and under-25s it seems. I was surprised, but Trump seems to get it somehow.

 

Edited Friday at 12:43 by Agent 00Soul
grammar

[tegs07]

5 minutes ago, Agent 00Soul said:

 

That might help shore up the 18-30 male voters who swung their votes for Trump by a massive 56%.  Women the same age were still 40%, which is kind of wild when you think about it.  The thing that shows how out of touch I am as a 56 year old was how mainstream the Tates and their cohort are for people of a certain age.  My 20 year old female intern, for example, didn't share their politics but still watched them and people like them from time to time.  She also watched Loose Women when she was home.  It's all just programming to her and her fellow teens and under-25s it seems. I was surprised, but Trump seems to get it somehow.

I dont know if anyone has seen the second season of The Capture?

 

Life imitating art?

[tauzero]

1 hour ago, Al Krow said:

NHS will be safe,  as confirmed by our Health Secretary this morning. Frankly no political party can risk damaging it and hope to survive.

 

14 years of deterioration wasn't damaging it then? It took that long for the party in question to fail to survive.

[tegs07]

4 minutes ago, tauzero said:

 

14 years of deterioration wasn't damaging it then? It took that long for the party in question to fail to survive.

The NHS can only fail with its current system. It was never designed to cope with such a broad range of health conditions nor for such a rapidly aging population who are living longer with all the associated conditions the aging process presents.

 

Even with a streamlined management system, better technology, better procurement etc investment alone will never solve the problems.

 

A good start might be to look at the French system which whilst isn’t perfect seems to be coping with issues far better than the UK.

[peteb]

2 hours ago, Al Krow said:

 

NHS will be safe,  as confirmed by our Health Secretary this morning. Frankly no political party can risk damaging it and hope to survive.

 

Food: the chlorinated chicken issue, right? As long as it's properly labelled shouldn't it be up to us, as adults, to decide whether we want cheaper US chicken or continue to pay more the non-chlorinated variety? Given that the US is the most litigious nation on earth if there was a whiff of harm arising from their food, there would have been plenty of claimants! And no one seems to worry to much about "adulterated" US food when they go on hols to the US?

 

Don't be too complacent about the NHS. If Reform were to ever get anywhere near Government, then it would be anything but safe. 

 

Surely the chlorinated chicken issue is just starting a race to the bottom, with the liklihood of destroying the UK farming industry. We haven't had a bird flu scare for many years, let's keep it that way! 

 

Edited Friday at 14:06 by peteb

[chris_b]

1 hour ago, Al Krow said:

 

NHS will be safe,  as confirmed by our Health Secretary this morning. Frankly no political party can risk damaging it and hope to survive.

 

Food: the chlorinated chicken issue, right? As long as it's properly labelled shouldn't it be up to us, as adults, to decide whether we want cheaper US chicken or continue to pay more the non-chlorinated variety? Given that the US is the most litigious nation on earth if there was a whiff of harm arising from their food, there would have been plenty of claimants! And no one seems to worry to much about "adulterated" US food when they go on hols to the US?

 

I wouldn't put it past the Trump administration to throw in extra demands once they've started the negotiations. The UK government has to negotiate with the intention to walk away from any deal that is harmful to the UK. Our lot are naive simpletons in comparison to the maniacs running the US Government.

 

Issues with food? How long have you got!! There's the growth hormones used by the truck load and the antibiotics they have to use to treat the animals when they get ill, and the pesticides that are also used by the truck load, and are currently banned by the UK and EU. With the wrong deal we can wave goodbye to trade with the EU.

[Russ]

4 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

The NHS can only fail with its current system. It was never designed to cope with such a broad range of health conditions nor for such a rapidly aging population who are living longer with all the associated conditions the aging process presents.

 

Even with a streamlined management system, better technology, better procurement etc investment alone will never solve the problems.

 

A good start might be to look at the French system which whilst isn’t perfect seems to be coping with issues far better than the UK.

The Australian system would work better. Basically, it's all free, but if you earn over a particular amount (I think it's AU$97,000 right now - about £48k) you either have to pay up to 1.5% more income tax depending on how much over that amount you pay, or you have to get private insurance. 

 

The French system is not much different to the NHS - the main difference is that your contribution to it is itemised on your taxes (as membership of a "mutuelle"). It also comes with (small) co-pays for doctors' appointments. Breaking out NHS funding into a separate line item on your taxes might not be a bad thing, rather than the funding for it just coming out of general taxation. I know you get that pie chart every year from HMRC that shows what percentage of your taxes are going to what, but seeing it as an actual amount might remind people that it's not actually free, just free at the point of access.