Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[LowB_FTW]

5 hours ago, tegs07 said:

Donald Trump has said America should “spend less time worrying about Putin”.

Taking to his Truth Social overnight, Mr Trump said more time should spent focusing on “migrant rape gangs, drug lords, murderers, and people from mental institutions entering our country - so that we don’t end up like Europe!”

 

 

…. well that is a rational response. This bloke is truly unhinged.

Sheesh, he's really going all-in on the charm offensive, isn't he.

 

Mark

[Russ]

16 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

I’m trying to stay positive. The US seems to have a fairly decentralised system of government and seizing control is no quick process even for the most determined of dictators with far less established democratic institutions.

For the most part, Republicans have historically been very fond of states' rights - hence them permitting states to set their own restrictions on abortion, etc, and , in the past, on civil rights. They're not so keen on states' rights when they come into conflict with something like the Project 2025 agenda.

 

There are going to end up being court battles about this - some states are not going to touch his federal government's demands with a bargepole. We're already seeing states going against the removal of DEI, the legality of firing so many federal employees, etc, and they will find their way up to the Supreme Court, and we all know which way they lean now. 

 

 

[Agent 00Soul]

9 hours ago, prowla said:

The bloc system seems to be becoming reestablished and shifting towards 1984:

• Eurasia: Russia has expansionism into the former USSR territories.
• Oceania: Across the pond we have the Make America Great Again movement, with the USA aspiring to subsume Canada, Mexico, and Greenland.
• Eastasia: On the other side of the world we have China ready to move on Taiwan.

 

What about Europe (the non-USSR bits, including all Western European countries)?  Seems to me they could be a fourth bloc.  The EU has been talking about itself and its mission like it was Star Trek's utopian United Federation of Planets for years.  Let's see it, or whatever replaces it, put its money, and it has lots, where its mouth is.

 

And don't forget about the Global South.  China already has Africa, but that's just one continent out of a vast region under this unbrella description.

 

 

Edited 19 hours ago by Agent 00Soul

[tegs07]

Strangely enough I was pondering this yesterday:

 

Opinion | The US we thought we knew is gone – and Australians know it - The Guardian https://apple.news/A56nGlUctT0mO9zgkMRWShg

 

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-02-25/aukus-five-eyes-trump-john-lyons/104973408?utm_source=abc_news_web&utm_medium=content_shared&utm_campaign=abc_news_web

 

Under Trump the US is losing the trust of key allies and weakening its capabilities in the South China seas.

 

Europe and Australia are now re-evaluating their strategic partnerships with the USA.

 

Edited 7 hours ago by tegs07

[edstraker123]

The Aussies certainly tell it like it is :

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/04/wa-premier-roger-cook-calls-us-vice-president-jd-vance-a-knob

[Steve Browning]

Indeed. It's difficult to see this latest action as anything other than spite.

[BigRedX]

5 minutes ago, edstraker123 said:

The Aussies certainly tell it like it is :

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/mar/04/wa-premier-roger-cook-calls-us-vice-president-jd-vance-a-knob

 

And he's not wrong.

[TimR]

15 hours ago, tegs07 said:

They may as well just declare themselves bankrupt.

 

Morrally? 🤣

 

It's Disater Politics. Although I'm not sure how much cash these billionaires have, or if that matters. 

 

Create policies that crash the economy, buy up everything on the cheap, farms, oil, power. Then try and undo the damage with new polices.

 

Appear to be the saviours, whilst controlling and owning everything. 

 

Worst case scenario, escape to Russia. 

[TimR]

Double

Edited 6 hours ago by TimR

[TimR]

Triple

Edited 6 hours ago by TimR

[tegs07]

Morally certainly. 
I would love to understand this more but from my limited knowledge of the current situation:

1. The USA has always profited economically from being the world’s reserve currency. Hoarding the $ keeps it (artificially) strong. If there was an alternative currency to buy and sell oil and keep strategic reserves in (Yuan) and that $ reserve (treasury and physical) started to flow back to the USA what happens to inflation and the purchasing power of the $.

 

https://finbold.com/china-dumps-74-billion-of-u-s-debt-in-just-7-months/

 

2. Trump was elected primarily on his economic promises to improve the finances of the average working american. So far his policies of tariffs and volatility will short term increase inflation and are boosting European stocks (which were in a slump) and putting a halt to the meteoric rise in US stocks. 

 

USA Inflation before Tariffs:

 

3. Geopolitical and soft influence. China and Russia are the biggest winner from Trump’s foreign policy. IMO the USA has fluctuated between isolation and intervention on the world stage with impunity in the past as there was no credible alternative to it’s global position either economically or in terms of military protection. There is a credible alternative in the BRICS financially and China in terms of militarily and soft policy (infrastructure investment, aid etc).

 

My assessment with limited knowledge is that unless the democrats strangle Trump financially by the midterms the USA may well be a far lesser economic and military power by the time of the next elections.
 

Edited 5 hours ago by tegs07
chart

[tegs07]

oh dear oh dear:

 

China Tariff on USA includes:

 

“For one, Beijing has barred 15 US companies from buying dual-use materials or tech from China - dual-use because they can be used for both civilian and military manufacturing. 

Some of these firms make military equipment - such as General Dynamics Land Systems (GDLS), which designs and produces military vehicles, including battle tanks for the US and South Korea and Shield AI, a Silicon Valley-based defence start-up which makes AI software for unmanned aircraft and drones. 

Additionally, it has also added 10 firms to the "unreliable entity" list, which means they cannot trade with China, or invest in the country. These include Huntington Ingalls Industries, America's largest military shipbuilding company and TextOre, whichspecialises in analysing open-source intelligence for the defence and intelligence operations 

 

source BBC

Edit: Article does point out how much of an impact this could have is unclear as there is no data about the volume of imports these companies have.

 

Golden opportunity for European defence industry? 

 

Edit: If and it’s a BIG if, Europe can get their act together quickly combined they could emerge as a far stronger global power. This would mean thinking far beyond the limited scope of the EU as IMO Turkey, Switzerland, the UK etc need to be involved.

Edited 5 hours ago by tegs07

[Staggering on]

Tariffs for Canada and Mexico start today, stock markets reacted yesterday after the announcement. It will be an interesting and stressful week for Canadians as our  federal and provincial governments and businesses react to a 25% tariff.😟🇨🇦

 

 

Edited 4 hours ago by Staggering on

[tegs07]

28 minutes ago, Staggering on said:

Tariffs for Canada and Mexico start today, stock markets reacted yesterday after the announcement. It will be an interesting and stressful week for Canadians as our  federal and provincial governments and businesses react to a 25% tariff.😟🇨🇦

 

 

You guys have a lot of leverage in oil and gas. Add lumber and aluminium to the list (with expensive fire and flood rebuilding in the USA) and the average American is facing a hit.

 

Edit: I have seen a couple of independent forecasts predicting a 2 to 3% drop in US GDP this quarter as consumers tighten their belts and businesses confidence contracts.

 

I looked at the imports and the baulk of them can be supplied by Japan and /or Europe.

 

If Tariffs persist in the longer term the US may end up with a bigger trade deficit than they currently have.

Edited 3 hours ago by tegs07

[chris_b]

This is all distraction.

 

The real game in town is Trump and his gang working in the shadows to dismantle the apparatus of the US Government, end the Constitution and bring about full dictatorship.

 

At one point it looked like the courts were the only way to stop these illegal acts, but court judgements are enacted by the US Marshals Service. . . . who work for the DOJ. So Trump has neutered the court system. This is a well thought out and apparently unstoppable plan which is being ruthlessly enacted. 

[tegs07]

20 minutes ago, chris_b said:

This is all distraction.

 

The real game in town is Trump and his gang working in the shadows to dismantle the apparatus of the US Government, end the Constitution and bring about full dictatorship.

 

At one point it looked like the courts were the only way to stop these illegal acts, but court judgements are enacted by the US Marshals Service. . . . who work for the DOJ. So Trump has neutered the court system. This is a well thought out and apparently unstoppable plan which is being ruthlessly enacted. 

Let’s see if the Democrats have the balls to defund and shut down government on March 14th.

[peteb]

18 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

Let’s see if the Democrats have the balls to defund and shut down government on March 14th.

 

I'm not sure what that will actually achieve. It can only give Trump a point that can be spun to his advantage among his cult following, some of whom maybe wavering at the moment. I don't think that Trump is bothered in the slightest about governing effectively, only what he can dictate by decree. 

 

[tegs07]

10 minutes ago, peteb said:

 

I'm not sure what that will actually achieve. It can only give Trump a point that can be spun to his advantage among his cult following, some of whom maybe wavering at the moment. I don't think that Trump is bothered in the slightest about governing effectively, only what he can dictate by decree. 

 

he can only govern if he has a government. removing musk or making what he is doing accountable and visible should be a minimum pre-requisite to any kind of backing 

[peteb]

8 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

he can only govern if he has a government. removing musk or making what he is doing accountable and visible should be a minimum pre-requisite to any kind of backing 

 

He just doesn't care. He's got Musk setting up, what in effect, will be an oligarchy paying fealty to a king (just like Putin). He is trying to neuter the government, not use it to govern or do what he was elected to do. 

 

In the same way, he isn't concerned with what the people who voted for him think. He's got no use for them anymore, as he can't be elected for a third time (it's extremely unlikely he could get Congress to amend the constitution). Now it's Project 25 all the way, and he actually wants to marginalise the government process. 

 

[KingBollock]

He wants to be a dictator. He is jealous of the way other dictators are pandered to and worshipped. He said as much after meeting with Kim Jong Un.

 

He doesn’t care what damage he does. He got the courts to make it so that any thing he does as president, no matter how illegal, is legal as long as he says it’s official. So what has he got to lose? He either comes away disgustingly rich, or he gets to rule until he dies, filling his, and his friend’s, pockets as he goes. 
 

He is truly loathsome.

[mcnach]

22 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

he can only govern if he has a government. removing musk or making what he is doing accountable and visible should be a minimum pre-requisite to any kind of backing 

 

We're talking about The Big Orange Manchild. What makes you think he cares about doing things by the book?

 

He will have to stop. My worry is that he will not stop himself and force some kind of civil war in the process. It's not just MAGA who own guns. Shitshow, regardless which way you look at it, there are no winners.

 

Meanwhile, back to the really important matters: did the forum software change shitshow into poopyshow? 

[chris_b]

3 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

Let’s see if the Democrats have the balls to defund and shut down government on March 14th.

 

The Democrats have no power. Where does it get them if they try to shut down the Government? Trump is in charge of the treasury and will just make an executive order to carry on funding.

 

The only way out of this is for real Republicans to grow a pair, join with the Democrats and military, and stage a coup. Arrest Trump, all his cronies and the Supreme Court, send them for an extended holiday at Guantanamo, which will undoubtedly start a Civil War, split up the Union and cause enough disruption to enable Russia and China to do whatever they like!

 

There are very few options to get the US out of this dystopian nightmare.

[Lozz196]

An orange jump suit for the orange one, good call Chris (my mate has decided that from now on he will only refer to Trump as The Fanta Fuhrer, which did make me chuckle somewhat).

[KingBollock]

I’m not so sure that a civil war would happen. I think that a lot of republicans might even be relieved, and they’d soon stick some other buffoon in Trump’s place.

 

My worry is a world war.

 

What I can’t decide is whether Europe should grow a backbone or not. Would that antagonise Russia and the US? Or should we just roll over to try to avoid a war? I have a feeling that any backbone grown would be a weak thing and we’d end up capitulating anyway, just after a lot of death and destruction.

[TimR]

NATO is not Europe. It's the entire North Atlantic plus a load of others. 

 

Then add Austrailia. 

 

Probably also involve the Arab Oil states of OPEC+.

 

Putin would back down very quickly.

 

At the moment no one needs to get involved while the Ukraine is holding Russia at bay.

 

The US want to remain neutral? - not for long...

Edited 1 hour ago by TimR