Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[TimR]

38 minutes ago, Si600 said:

Back to T'arriff briefly. I asked about thirty pages ago what the point of tit-for-tat tariffs was.  If I as, say America, say I'm going to put 25% extra on all steel imports, what happens if you, as say, the UK, say, OK, it's going to cost you more than us so we're going ignore your willy-waving and carry on with our own lives?

 

A lot of it is male machismo. In particular if its not in reply to Trump, you'll have to reply to your voters who will see you as weak. Men eh? It's all very childish. 

 

Your voters will be expecting you to defend their businesses so anyone who exports the majority of their goods to the US is going to be in pain. 

 

As far as I can see Trump was putting blanket tarrifs on all imports. The US can't, contrary to their own belief, obtain, refine, and manufacture everything inside the US. That's the idea of free trade. In a global economy where people are used to buying anything from anywhere, it's going be like going back to the 1970s. The problem is, Pandora's box is open, people want Apple Watches, not LED Texas Instrument digital watches. It's the 2020s, the world has moved one. You can't wind back to when it was great. This is the ridiculousness of it all. The rest of the world is progressing towards 2030, carbon neutral, the AI age, gender neutral, inclusivity. For a very good reason. 

 

Old people really don't like that. Anyone late or post, GenX struggles with the new world.

 

It will all fail horribly and they'll turn on him and the great Trump experiment will be over and hopefully not destroy the US and the rest of us in the process. 

 

I have every faith in the Chineese maintaining free trade with the rest of the world and taking over the US's role. I don't think they have political world domination on their minds. Trade and financial maybe, but history has shown empires can only extend so far. 

[steantval]

6 hours ago, SteveXFR said:

I'm wondering how this thread has bypassed the no politics rule. Is it because its foreign? Or because its fairly civilised discussion so far?

I think it’s because it is basically a one sided debate, a very unique situation for this Off Topic section of this website, the fact is, that most probably 100% of us, totally disagree with what the dangerous buffoon across the water is doing to the world.

[tegs07]

37 minutes ago, TimR said:

t will all fail horribly and they'll turn on him and the great Trump experiment will be over and hopefully not destroy the US and the rest of us in the process. 

I think sentiment in the coming weeks will be interesting. The stock market has already dipped into correction territory. Inflation is very sticky, there will be fall out in consumer confidence following the DOGE sackings and the impact of the loss of USAid farming subsidies.

 

It’s looking highly likely that an expected 4% GDP increase will result in around a -2.5 drop which will result in a technical recession. How far will the consumer go in waiting for the Trump economic Nirvana. Is a cost of living weary nation in it for the long haul?

 

Edit: Q3 was weaker than expected but positive so not a technical recession however a 2.8% gain in Q3 a 2.8 percent projected drop in Q4 is concerning.

Edited Monday at 16:48 by tegs07

[tegs07]

FWIW I think the interesting battle is yet to come. The battle with the FED to cut rates. This is the stimulus team Trump want and need BUT get this wrong when inflation has not been tamed and it potentially gets all kinds of interesting.

[Al Krow]

If you try dumb-o-nomics the financial markets will vote with their wallets. Just ask Liz. The US stock markets have been nosediving since the start of this year as they start factoring a possible Trump recession.

The worst performing stock on the Nasdaq in 2025?

 

Tesla

 

 

 

 

 

Edited Monday at 17:33 by Al Krow

[Steve Browning]

2 hours ago, tegs07 said:

The purpose of tariffs is to make your competitors products more expensive and less likely to be bought. The long term aim being that consumers will no longer buy them and choose home grown products instead. In the case of Canada where cross border trade is in the hundreds or billions of dollars this situation could impact the livelihoods of thousands of workers and potentially put many other businesses out of action due to disrupted supply chains.

 

Generally this is not favourable for voters who don’t want to see their elected leaders shrug and let it happen without a fight.

 

Edit: There’s also a perception of injustice going on. Trump claims that the trade deficit with Canada is due to Canada taking advantage of the USA and the economic ineptness of the Biden administration. The trade deficit has been growing over the last decade, BUT when oil is taken out of the equation (the US imports a lot of crude from Canada for refining) then the US actually has a positive balance. It exports more than it imports!

 

The price of oil has risen in recent years largely due to a certain war….

It will be interesting to see how cross border cooperation suffers. Before I retired, I worked for a company that traded with places in Canada, just across the border from the US. The US Business was exempted from registering for tax in Canada, whether by official or unofficial means. The future of that arrangement must surely be in doubt. The cost of maintaining/establishing that registration will be sizeable (and not built into the pricing rate-card).

Edited Monday at 17:41 by Steve Browning

[tauzero]

Going bass-centric, presumably this will be a blow for Dingwall and Godin as the USA would be their biggest markets. Any other largeish Canadian bass/guitar makers?

[Obrienp]

1 hour ago, TimR said:

 

The rest of the world is progressing towards 2030, carbon neutral, the AI age, gender neutral, inclusivity. For a very good reason. 

 

Old people really don't like that. Anyone late or post, GenX struggles with the new world.

Is this a statement specifically about older people in the USA, or are you talking about old people globally? If the latter, I think it is a bit of a stereotype and not necessarily true. “The rest of the world is progressing towards 2030” because of the work put in over the last 30+ years, in the face of extreme resistance from vested interests, by people who are now old. Vocal minorities, supporting populist right wing policies do not represent the majority of older people and in fact, sadly there are quite a few younger people involved in these populist movements. The majority of older people, despite, what the media may say, are not necessarily against progress and happy to let people live the life they want to live, provided it does not involve harming others.

[tauzero]

2 hours ago, TimR said:

Old people really don't like that. Anyone late or post, GenX struggles with the new world.

 

Well, obviously late people will struggle with the new world, seeing as they're dead. And anyone post Gen X is a millennial, a Gen Z, or a Gen Alpha or Beta. But leaving the pedantry aside, I find your assertion quite offensive, as I suspect will most of the boomers and silent generation on BC. You young people are far too prone to thoughtless stereotypes.

[Steve Browning]

36 minutes ago, tauzero said:

 

Well, obviously late people will struggle with the new world, seeing as they're dead. And anyone post Gen X is a millennial, a Gen Z, or a Gen Alpha or Beta. But leaving the pedantry aside, I find your assertion quite offensive, as I suspect will most of the boomers and silent generation on BC. You young people are far too prone to thoughtless stereotypes.

Some of you young people, surely?

[Burns-bass]

41 minutes ago, tauzero said:

 

Well, obviously late people will struggle with the new world, seeing as they're dead. And anyone post Gen X is a millennial, a Gen Z, or a Gen Alpha or Beta. But leaving the pedantry aside, I find your assertion quite offensive, as I suspect will most of the boomers and silent generation on BC. You young people are far too prone to thoughtless stereotypes.

Looking at the shocking rise in mental health problems among the young (and the young-ish) I’m not sure it’s that the oldies really are struggling with the modern world as much as is made out.

[peteb]

1 hour ago, tauzero said:

I find your assertion quite offensive, as I suspect will most of the boomers and silent generation on BC

 

I'm afraid that as a (late) Boomer, I don't find it offensive at all, mainly because there is an element of truth in it. It's a generalisation of course, and certainly doesn't apply to all people of that age, but there are plenty of people I know of my age who believe things these days that they would have found ridiculous thirty years ago. 

 

22 minutes ago, Burns-bass said:

Looking at the shocking rise in mental health problems among the young (and the young-ish) I’m not sure it’s that the oldies really are struggling with the modern world as much as is made out.

 

This may be because the young are the ones who have to deal with the stress and worries of the modern world. I already own a home, have a decent pension sorted out, have had a reasonably secure job for many years, not to mention that I don't have to deal with the strange dating rituals that seem to be in place these days. This is probably the first generation for hundreds of years who will be poorer and more disadvantaged than their parents. 

 

Edited Monday at 19:25 by peteb

[Al Krow]

10 minutes ago, peteb said:

This may be because the young are the ones who have to deal with the stress and worries of the modern world. I already own a home, have a decent pension sorted out, have had a reasonably secure job for many years, not to mention that I don't have to deal with the strange dating rituals that seem to be in place these days. This is probably the first generation for hundreds of years who will be poorer and more disadvantaged than their parents. 

 

 

^^ 100% agree, Pete

 

There are far too many heart-breaking stories from our kids' generations to back that up.

 

 

[Lozz196]

31 minutes ago, peteb said:

 

I'm afraid that as a (late) Boomer, I don't find it offensive at all, mainly because there is an element of truth in it. It's a generalisation of course, and certainly doesn't apply to all people of that age, but there are plenty of people I know of my age who believe things these days that they would have found ridiculous thirty years ago. 

 

 

This may be because the young are the ones who have to deal with the stress and worries of the modern world. I already own a home, have a decent pension sorted out, have had a reasonably secure job for many years, not to mention that I don't have to deal with the strange dating rituals that seem to be in place these days. This is probably the first generation for hundreds of years who will be poorer and more disadvantaged than their parents. 

 

Agree Pete, not sure I’d like to be a young person nowadays, I know it sounds old hat but it really was easier when I was younger.

[SumOne]

1 hour ago, tauzero said:

You young people are far too prone to thoughtless stereotypes.

 

 I've told you a million times not to exaggerate!

[tauzero]

1 hour ago, Steve Browning said:

Some of you young people, surely?

 

I'm doing post-modern irony.

[peteb]

18 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

 

^^ 100% agree, Pete

 

There are far too many heart-breaking stories from our kids' generations to back that up.

 

 

 

There have always been heart-breaking stories, but these days even kids who have no issues, work hard and get what appears to be a decent job, still can't afford to get a home to bring a family up unless they have pretty wealthy parents who will give them a substantial amount of help. Add to that less security and more stress, both in the workplace and in life outside of work and it's no wonder that people are having more mental health issues. 

 

Add to that the effect of social media and the resulting devaluation of truth . People now, both young and old, politically left leaning or right wing, seem able to believe things that just defy any notion of common sense, stuff they would have dismissed as comical not that long ago. Dangerous times... 

 

[Burns-bass]

45 minutes ago, peteb said:

 

I'm afraid that as a (late) Boomer, I don't find it offensive at all, mainly because there is an element of truth in it. It's a generalisation of course, and certainly doesn't apply to all people of that age, but there are plenty of people I know of my age who believe things these days that they would have found ridiculous thirty years ago. 

 

 

This may be because the young are the ones who have to deal with the stress and worries of the modern world. I already own a home, have a decent pension sorted out, have had a reasonably secure job for many years, not to mention that I don't have to deal with the strange dating rituals that seem to be in place these days. This is probably the first generation for hundreds of years who will be poorer and more disadvantaged than their parents. 

 

My reply was facetious, but I agree with your point (although I’m a Millenial and more financially more stable than my parents were at this age).

 

This country is messed up.

[prowla]

4 hours ago, tegs07 said:

The purpose of tariffs is to make your competitors products more expensive and less likely to be bought. The long term aim being that consumers will no longer buy them and choose home grown products instead. In the case of Canada where cross border trade is in the hundreds or billions of dollars this situation could impact the livelihoods of thousands of workers and potentially put many other businesses out of action due to disrupted supply chains.

 

Generally this is not favourable for voters who don’t want to see their elected leaders shrug and let it happen without a fight.

 

Edit: There’s also a perception of injustice going on. Trump claims that the trade deficit with Canada is due to Canada taking advantage of the USA and the economic ineptness of the Biden administration. The trade deficit has been growing over the last decade, BUT when oil is taken out of the equation (the US imports a lot of crude from Canada for refining) then the US actually has a positive balance. It exports more than it imports!

 

The price of oil has risen in recent years largely due to a certain war….

 

Canada have said they'll turn off the supply of oil to the US.

[Staggering on]

And right in the middle of all this our Canadian Prime Minister will be stepping down in the next few days and the recently elected (yesterday) new leader of the Liberal Party (Mark Carney, you may recognize that name from his years in the UK) will become the new PM and will be calling an election. Parliament has been prorogued for some time and at this point the new leader doesn't have a seat in Parliament, it will be an interesting few weeks. Now it seems the Conservatives under a leader some call "mini Trump" may have a lot harder time in the election than they thought just a few days ago. We live in interesting and scary times.🙄🇨🇦

[tauzero]

3 minutes ago, prowla said:

 

Canada have said they'll turn off the supply of oil to the US.

 

Having already taken all American booze off the shelves (apparently), which will improve the average quality of alcoholic drink in Canada considerably.

[Staggering on]

3 minutes ago, prowla said:

 

Canada have said they'll turn off the supply of oil to the US.

 

Ontario is applying a tariff to the electricity we sell to the USA and the premier has said that if necessary he is prepared to stop electricity sales to the USA entirely.

[Al Krow]

3 minutes ago, Staggering on said:

 

Ontario is applying a tariff to the electricity we sell to the USA and the premier has said that if necessary he is prepared to stop electricity sales to the USA entirely.

 

Better to slap extra costs on as he's doing now and get $400k+ per day in extra tax revenues for Candians I would have thought?

 

Surprised he's not running for the top job this fella. He kmows exactly how to face down a bully!

Edited Monday at 20:14 by Al Krow

[steantval]

8 minutes ago, Staggering on said:

And right in the middle of all this our Canadian Prime Minister will be stepping down in the next few days and the recently elected (yesterday) new leader of the Liberal Party (Mark Carney, you may recognize that name from his years in the UK) will become the new PM and will be calling an election. Parliament has been prorogued for some time and at this point the new leader doesn't have a seat in Parliament, it will be an interesting few weeks. Now it seems the Conservatives under a leader some call "mini Trump" may have a lot harder time in the election than they thought just a few days ago. We live in interesting and scary times.🙄🇨🇦

That Carney guy was a nightmare when he was head of the Bank of England, he was always talking things down, affecting the markets in a really negative way.

[Al Krow]

15 minutes ago, peteb said:

 

There have always been heart-breaking stories, but these days even kids who have no issues, work hard and get what appears to be a decent job, still can't afford to get a home to bring a family up unless they have pretty wealthy parents who will give them a substantial amount of help. Add to that less security and more stress, both in the workplace and in life outside of work and it's no wonder that people are having more mental health issues. 

 

Add to that the effect of social media and the resulting devaluation of truth . People now, both young and old, politically left leaning or right wing, seem able to believe things that just defy any notion of common sense, stuff they would have dismissed as comical not that long ago. Dangerous times... 

 

 

Still 100% in agreement Pete, and the examples you gave were exactly the ones I had in mind.

 

This is all very disconcerting...can't we get back to arguing about the value of compression or something similar please? 😂