Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[TimR]

37 minutes ago, SteveXFR said:

I heard some goon on the radio claiming that a poll shows that 15% of Brits want the UK taken over by Trump. It was pointed out that also means 85% don't want that but they didn't get it and insisted we should have a referendum. I almost agree, it would send a message that we really don't want the orange man baby. 

 

The Greenlanders had a poll. They still didn't get it. They live in a bubble and belive only what they want to believe. 

 

There's a lot of very good and well understood psychology around people's belief systems. It physically causes someone pain to change their long held beliefs. Most people will do anything to make sure that their entire world view that they've built up over years doesn't suddenly dissolve around them. Which would have to happen to a lot of people on this planet. Not just the US. It's why its impossible to leave a cult.

 

If someone's views are based on belief rather than fact, new facts are not going to change their beliefs. 

 

 

Edited yesterday at 09:21 by TimR

[tegs07]

Allegedly the slump in Tesla share prices is down to radical left lunatics illegally boycotting Musk.

 

OK where to start with this one. Nothing to do with the fact that the share price is completely divorced from the reality of sales figures.

Nothing to do with Trump’s own policies which favour fossil fuels and don’t encourage climate friendly alternatives.

Nothing to do with tariffs and economic uncertainty.

Also when has it been illegal to be an ethical investor or consumer?

 

 

[prowla]

2 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

Allegedly the slump in Tesla share prices is down to radical left lunatics illegally boycotting Musk.

 

OK where to start with this one. Nothing to do with the fact that the share price is completely divorced from the reality of sales figures.

Nothing to do with Trump’s own policies which favour fossil fuels and don’t encourage climate friendly alternatives.

Nothing to do with tariffs and economic uncertainty.

Also when has it been illegal to be an ethical investor or consumer?

 

Presumably then there have been a lot of lefty lunatics previously buying or intending to buy Teslas.

[JoeEvans]

18 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

Allegedly the slump in Tesla share prices is down to radical left lunatics illegally boycotting Musk.

 

OK where to start with this one. Nothing to do with the fact that the share price is completely divorced from the reality of sales figures.

Nothing to do with Trump’s own policies which favour fossil fuels and don’t encourage climate friendly alternatives.

Nothing to do with tariffs and economic uncertainty.

Also when has it been illegal to be an ethical investor or consumer?

 

 

Tesla's share price is utterly insane in terms of price to earnings ratio. It seems to be based on the belief that in due course Tesla will be the leading global car manufacturer and the leading global supplier in a huge autonomous vehicle industry that doesn't yet exist. Meanwhile Musk has gone full Ratner and deliberately alienated the people most likely to but electric cars, ie people vaguely centre or left of centre.

[cetera]

4 hours ago, TimR said:

There is no 'waiting it out' in the US. 

 

You're homeless with no healthcare. No one is coming to rescue you. Especially not Musk and Trump.

 

Blimey..... hell must have frozen over., I'm actually finding myself nodding in agreement with a post by TimR
No offence.... lol!

 

 

[Si600]

1 hour ago, tegs07 said:

Allegedly the slump in Tesla share prices is down to radical left lunatics illegally boycotting Musk.

 

OK where to start with this one. Nothing to do with the fact that the share price is completely divorced from the reality of sales figures.

Nothing to do with Trump’s own policies which favour fossil fuels and don’t encourage climate friendly alternatives.

Nothing to do with tariffs and economic uncertainty.

Also when has it been illegal to be an ethical investor or consumer?

 

 

 

Nothing to do with the CEO making right wing gestures at all.....

 

 

1 hour ago, prowla said:

Presumably then there have been a lot of lefty lunatics previously buying or intending to buy Teslas.

 

I did look at a Tesla a few years ago, but the eyewatering price put me off.  Since then I've seen reports from the ADAC (https://www.adac.de/news/tuev-report-2025/) that Tesla tops the list in first time TüV failures, with significant structural issues, not just bald tyres or blown bulbs.

 

In his favour, and whatever else you may think of him, you can't deny that he has done an awful lot to mainstream electric vehicles as personal transport.  Which is a good thing in-my-humble-would-like-to-have-a-liveable-planet opinion.

[TimR]

The Tesla share price is just correcting itself back to what it was before it was artificially hiked by speculators when Musk won the US election in November. 

[JoeEvans]

The other financial factor that can't be ignored in US politics is cryptocurrencies. The amount of money now invested in crypto is insane, and around 28% of US adults have some crypto investments. For a lot of people it's tied in to a whole worldview - libertarian, techno-utopian, anti-government, and pro-Trump largely because they think he's pro-crypto. There are some wild views out there - a lot of people apparently believe that in due course Bitcoin will become the primary global currency, with a single Bitcoin worth a billion or more.

But these are wildly unreliable investments with zero real value - the biggest market bubble in history - and it's highly likely that in due course a lot of people will lose a lot of money.

I think that crypto and MAGA are deeply intertwined, not just practically but psychologically - all about belief in something utterly unsupported by reality. I think both bubbles will eventually burst together in a very messy way.

[JoeEvans]

3 minutes ago, TimR said:

The Tesla share price is just correcting itself back to what it was before it was artificially hiked by speculators when Musk won the US election in November. 

Tesla's price/earnings ratio for forecast sales for 2026 is still 75 or so; a good P/E ratio is normally thought to be maybe 25. So Tesla is still valued three times higher than is justified by forecast sales. I can only assume that stock is bought and held by true believers who don't base investment (or voting) decisions on nasty facts.

[tegs07]

12 minutes ago, JoeEvans said:

The other financial factor that can't be ignored in US politics is cryptocurrencies. The amount of money now invested in crypto is insane, and around 28% of US adults have some crypto investments. For a lot of people it's tied in to a whole worldview - libertarian, techno-utopian, anti-government, and pro-Trump largely because they think he's pro-crypto. There are some wild views out there - a lot of people apparently believe that in due course Bitcoin will become the primary global currency, with a single Bitcoin worth a billion or more.

But these are wildly unreliable investments with zero real value - the biggest market bubble in history - and it's highly likely that in due course a lot of people will lose a lot of money.

I think that crypto and MAGA are deeply intertwined, not just practically but psychologically - all about belief in something utterly unsupported by reality. I think both bubbles will eventually burst together in a very messy way.

Crypto is an interesting one for me. Honestly I feel that the days of FIAT are numbered and cash will become a relic. That said a decentralised digital currency that is completely deregulated and open to wild fluctuations and speculation is not really the way forward.

I would think a digital currency offering from a central bank is far more likely.

 

As for BTC, Ether and the like. I had a very modest amount. More out of interest and exploring how to trade, convert and use it than expectations of making any money. 

 

I think that your most likely correct about the MAGA links. It may well be the mother of all bubbles in the meantime it certainly seems to make North Korean hackers a lot of money.

[Agent 00Soul]

The funny thing about the crypto people and the new age health people who are mostly MAGA now, is they usually started life on the left and gradually migrated over. Covid was a big accelerator too.

[PaulWarning]

Musk may come across as an idiot but he's not (obviously), I read the other day that he'd reduced his Tesla holdings to around 13% before the share crash

[tegs07]

3 minutes ago, PaulWarning said:

Musk may come across as an idiot but he's not (obviously), I read the other day that he'd reduced his Tesla holdings to around 13% before the share crash

I would not be surprised to find a lot of the instigators of this “transition” are big on gold, are shorting a whole bunch of stocks and are ready to make a massive amount of money.

[prowla]

Aren't all currencies based on speculation & "promise" anyway?

Governments just don't like crypto because they can't control them.

(I've no crypto at the moment, though.)

[TimR]

9 minutes ago, PaulWarning said:

Musk may come across as an idiot but he's not (obviously), I read the other day that he'd reduced his Tesla holdings to around 13% before the share crash

 

2022 - to pay for Twitter. 

[Agent 00Soul]

32 minutes ago, TimR said:

 

2022 - to pay for Twitter. 

 

Everyone was wondering why he was buying such an unprofitable platform as Twitter.  It turned out that money had nothing to do with it, in the short term direct sense.  He just wanted his own broadcast platform to air his own and sympathizers' views.  He was playing a longer game which he can certainly afford to do.  I wonder where all the people he fired ended up.

[tegs07]

1 hour ago, Agent 00Soul said:

The funny thing about the crypto people and the new age health people who are mostly MAGA now, is they usually started life on the left and gradually migrated over. Covid was a big accelerator too.

Covid seems to be a big accelerant for a whole bunch of conspiracy theorists and ideologies that are very fluid and transient.

I can only imagine that many people connected online in various echo chambers reinforcing their beliefs about the nature of capitalism, free speech, elites and the frustrations about a lack of power and a sense of hopelessness.

The deeply concerning nature of many that are drawn to this world view is the deeply nihilistic and fatalistic attitude that they share. Another is inherent in their rejection of  the “establishment” and its norms is a more complex failure to accept any evidence or “facts” that contradict their claims. The final and in my view the most dangerous element is their inability to accept that there is a huge group of people actively making a living and advancing their own interests. Lying, cheating, manipulating has become an industry that is easy to sell in the digital age.

 

Edit: There are also plenty of people who have messed up their careers and lives using the alt-right and various conspiracy sites as a last chance saloon to make money. David Iyke, Russell Brand etc

 

I would put JD Vance firmly in this space and world of delusional and vengeful digital opportunists stalking the echo chambers for personal gain. Even more concerning he sounds like he actually believes it.

Edited yesterday at 14:38 by tegs07

[prowla]

Further news on Trump's special operation trade wars, he is announcing the tariff on Canadian steel & aluminium will be increased to 50%:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cly412xwz44t

[tauzero]

2 hours ago, cetera said:

 

Blimey..... hell must have frozen over., I'm actually finding myself nodding in agreement with a post by TimR
No offence.... lol!

 

Just wait five minutes, another one will be along that you can disagree with. Just don't start arguing with him.

[tegs07]

4 minutes ago, prowla said:

Further news on Trump's special operation trade wars, he is announcing the tariff on Canadian steel & aluminium will be increased to 50%:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cly412xwz44t

Going full scorched earth now.

At this rate I can actually see a major recession and full blown stock market crash. Trump is gambling that Canada will just back down and cave in. I don’t think that they will.

[Woodinblack]

1 minute ago, tegs07 said:

Going full scorched earth now.

At this rate I can actually see a major recession and full blown stock market crash. Trump is gambling that Canada will just back down and cave in. I don’t think that they will.

 

So if they put theirs up to 50%, does he put his at 75%, and then what do the people who import that steel and presumably make things in the US do.. move to Canada?

[SumOne]

A lot like people, when countries isolate themselves they become weird and paranoid of the outside world.

 

The USA always had a bit of that isolationist attitude, 'world series' baseball, 'IndyCar vs F1', remaking TV shows rather than just watching the original from another country, not doing much international travel etc. 

 

And countries cutting themselves off from global trade has never seemed to turn out too well in the past...it's usually a punishment!

 

 

[tegs07]

8 minutes ago, Woodinblack said:

 

So if they put theirs up to 50%, does he put his at 75%, and then what do the people who import that steel and presumably make things in the US do.. move to Canada?

Well it’s the 51st state according to some. I think Canada will just stop supplying electricity and oil as a warning shot.

Edited yesterday at 15:02 by tegs07

[Pseudonym]

I am entertained by Citigroup's assessment of the current state of the US stock market as a victim of "a pause in US exceptionalism." Nicely put.

[tegs07]

I am still fairly optimistic that Trump has just enough rope….

 

Edit: Hopefully this folly will be resolved without too much lasting damage and the US will be back on track again.

 

Edited yesterday at 15:12 by tegs07