Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[Stub Mandrel]

I watched the original  Total Recall last night.

 

Now I understand where Elon von Musk got the cybertruck and his Mars obsession.

[Stub Mandrel]

On 23/03/2025 at 07:19, Burns-bass said:

Making Tax Digital means we all have to use systems like Xero or Quickbooks. They’re fiddly and annoying.

 

 

I use Accountsportal. Compared to Sage, it's a walk in the park and makes vat easy.

[tegs07]

13 minutes ago, SumOne said:

I wonder if they deliberately added the journalist - knowing it'd be a way of insulting Europe and making clear they really mean it when they say Europe needs to pay more for defence, but without saying it officially. It possibly plays well with Trump supporters.

 

We're at that stage now - like it has been with Russia for years where there are so many lies and double speak and incompetence that it's really hard to know the truth. Post truth, fake news etc.

They have been saying it officially since Trump MK1. Trump has said publicly Article 5 is transactional rather than a geopolitical necessity. Hegseth a TV host whose military experience is the equivalent of someone in the TA blasts senior NATO figures publicly at every opportunity. 

 

Its not a master stroke of 3D chess.

[Burns-bass]

12 minutes ago, Stub Mandrel said:

I watched the original  Total Recall last night.

 

Now I understand where Elon von Musk got the cybertruck and his Mars obsession.

Great film!

[prowla]

17 minutes ago, Stub Mandrel said:

I watched the original  Total Recall last night.

 

Now I understand where Elon von Musk got the cybertruck and his Mars obsession.

 

4 minutes ago, Burns-bass said:

Great film!

I don't remember it.

[Burns-bass]

Just now, prowla said:

 

I don't remember it.

Very nicely done. 
 

I read the book too, recently, and that was brilliant as well. 

[SumOne]

21 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

They have been saying it officially since Trump MK1. Trump has said publicly Article 5 is transactional rather than a geopolitical necessity. Hegseth a TV host whose military experience is the equivalent of someone in the TA blasts senior NATO figures publicly at every opportunity. 

 

Its not a master stroke of 3D chess.

No, it's no master stroke - but 'let's 'accidentally' add a journalist and then seemingly in private double down on those anti European messages, that'll play well with our voters and show we really mean it' seems like a possibility.

[tegs07]

15 minutes ago, SumOne said:

No, it's no master stroke - but 'let's 'accidentally' add a journalist and then seemingly in private double down on those anti European messages, that'll play well with our voters and show we really mean it' seems like a possibility.

I love the way you give these guys credit. If we look at the experience and credentials of the majority of Trump’s inner circle they don’t have the knowledge or experience to be doing the work they do. They are selected for ideological and loyalty purposes.

Add in the fact that Musk has sacked a whole layer of government officials whose job it is to understand the work that government departments do and relay that information to the president and there is a perfect storm of potential disaster.

Edited Wednesday at 08:55 by tegs07

[TimR]

1 hour ago, Steve Browning said:

I'm really not sure about that. Even if he hacked his way into the group, surely their use of non-secure phones allowed that to happen?

 

Even Trumps mob aren't putting that theory forward. 

 

 

That's what I mean. Even if they did invite him by accident (on purpose), the focus should be on them not using a secure platform in the first place rather than the journalist getting hold of the information. 

 

Seems everyone is missing the bigger picture and concentrating on what did happen rather than what could happen in future (or what else has unknowingly been leaked to other sources )

[Wombat]

It’s only a little blip. The 1st one in over 2 months…..

 

or he could have said ‘it’s only global thermonuclear war, the 1st one in over 2 months’.

 

the spin we are being sold now is amazing. And more amazing that a good portion of people swallow it!

[edstraker123]

9 hours ago, peteb said:

until Trump came to power, they had little chance of winning. 

or losing ! It was an eternal stalemate in the making with the continued loss of life that would ensue.

[Agent 00Soul]

11 hours ago, Misdee said:

The thing is, it's easy to blame Trump, MAGA et al, but they haven't created any of this. America was always like this. This lot have just given a large (probably the larger) proportion of the American people a voice and a focus for their grievances. 

 

The litany of questionable things this Trump administration are doing are, by and large, being welcomed by most ordinary Americans. A lot of people are loving it. This is democracy at work, working at dismantling the world's greatest democracy. It's always a big ask to save people from themselves.

 

If people don't like  what's happening in the USA, blame the Democrat Party, in its current state arguably the worst political organisation in the history of political organisations. It is they who have handed Trump  a romping victory not once but twice. There's a tried and tested maxim in political science that opponents don't win elections, governments lose them. That's what has happened in this instance, spectacularly.

I’d hardly call a 51% victory in the election and a current approval rate in the 40th percentile a huge margin but you are right, plenty of people are supporting this.  As I said in a previous post, politics as usual hasn’t worked in the US for the average person in a generation and finally Joe & Jo Normal are willing to try another form of government. Plenty of media, both news and social, have been harping on about how great Hungary is, how Putin fights for ordinary Russians, etc, that there are plenty of international role models doing proof of concept. This is indeed democracy at work. Bush and Blair were more dishonest than Trump in this instance. People probably knew he was going to dismantle the system and release the dogs to end the US culture wars by shock and awe tactics. They seem to think that within a generation the majority of country, instead of the half now, will agree with them. It’s what the CCP thinks about Hong Kong, and ultimately Taiwan too. 
 

Culturally, the US has one party to represent it (Republicans) and one party that is there to try and stop them (Democrats).  People vote for the Republicans because they believe in their project - it’s a positive vote. People vote Democrats to keep out Republicans - a negative vote. Positive usually can maintain the zeitgeist even when it loses elections. Negative is just random victories based on individual candidates. Maybe it’s not been like that forever, but in my lifetime it has. I personally never had any idea what the Dems stand for other than being pro-choice. There is therefore a general view that the Dems are corrupt at best, and an effete, effeminate, p-whipped, anti-American, Europhile 5th column at worst. That’s why the late Republican grandee Pat Buchanan referred to American conservatives as “the Real Americans.” Democrats to this day have no response because a lot of them indeed do not like the American values that the GOP and probably half the country represent.  It’s such a powerful narrative that even now - when the GOP is falling in with actual Nazis, militias that kill Capitol Hill police, seig heiling plutocrats, etc - the Dems can’t get anyone to listen to them. 
 

You can’t deny either the fact that individual Americans love love love to score very public cultural victories against their opponents. Trump is really popular with young men, of all colours and ethnicities, precisely because he has freed them to go for the jugular against their cultural opponents for example. This conflict happens in all countries of course, but no where in the West is it as important, as culturally embedded, as it is in the USA where people define themselves by their cultural politics to a much greater extent than Europe, Canada, or down under. It’s like a perpetual Civil War and is ingrained into US culture.  
 

Edited Wednesday at 09:53 by Agent 00Soul

[tegs07]

11 hours ago, Misdee said:

If people don't like  what's happening in the USA, blame the Democrat Party, in its current state arguably the worst political organisation in the history of political organisations. It is they who have handed Trump  a romping victory not once but twice. There's a tried and tested maxim in political science that opponents don't win elections, governments lose them. That's what has happened in this instance, spectacularly.

The worst political organisation in the history of political organisations managed to steer the US economy out of Covid, it managed to get GDP to one of the biggest growth rates of the G7, get inflation down from 10% to within tolerance of the 2% target. It created some of the lowest unemployment rates in modern US history and a stock market that was on fire.

 

Not bad for a bunch of losers. The truth of the matter is the US is losing its global dominance as is the west in general. Accepting this fact is crucial to planning a future strategy, getting all isolationist and trying to turn back the clock to pre globalisation is a risky strategy at best. Trumpism will outlive Trump and in the short term we will all be poorer. In the long term we might be less safe. On both sides of the Atlantic.

[Agent 00Soul]

10 hours ago, Dad3353 said:

If we're going down the 'historical back story' route

It can never be underplayed. You can easily argue that the US Civil War never ended. And indeed you can probably say it began the second the US declared independence. The shooting part was 1861-65, but culturally it was always going on.  Canadian views about the US are similarly baked in.  They go back almost a century before Canada was even confederated into an independent country to the first US invasion of the territory.  It’s possible that Canada was even unified in part as a reaction against and bulwark towards the US. The past may be a foreign country but it has a long and influential shadow. 

[Misdee]

11 minutes ago, Agent 00Soul said:

I’d hardly call a 51% victory in the election and a current approval rate in the 40th percentile a huge margin but you are right, plenty of people are supporting this.  As I said in a previous post, politics as usual hasn’t worked in the US for the average person in a generation and finally Joe & Jo Normal are willing to try another form of government. Plenty of media, both news and social, have been harping on about how great Hungary is, how Putin fights for ordinary Russians, etc, that there are plenty of international role models doing proof of concept. This is indeed democracy at work. Bush and Blair were more dishonest than Trump in this instance. People probably knew he was going to dismantle the system and release the dogs to end the US culture wars by shock and awe tactics. They seem to think that within a generation the majority of country, instead of the half now, will agree with them. It’s what the CCP thinks about Hong Kong, and ultimately Taiwan too. 
 

Culturally, the US has one party to represent it (Republicans) and one party that is there to try and stop them (Democrats).  People vote for the Republicans because they believe in their project - it’s a positive vote. People vote Democrats to keep out Republicans - a negative vote. Positive usually can maintain the zeitgeist even when it loses elections. Negative is just random victories based on individual candidates. Maybe it’s not been like that forever, but in my lifetime it has. I personally never had any idea what the Dems stand for other than being pro-choice. There is therefore a general view that the Dems are corrupt at best, and an effete, effeminate, p-whipped, anti-American, Europhile 5th column at worst. That’s why the late Republican grandee Pat Buchanan referred to American conservatives as “the Real Americans.” Democrats to this day have no response because a lot of them indeed do not like the American values that the GOP and probably half the country represent. 
 

You can’t deny either the fact that individual Americans love love love to score very public cultural victories against their opponents. Trump is really popular with young men, of all colours and ethnicities, precisely because he has freed them to go for the jugular against their cultural opponents for example. This conflict happens in all countries of course, but no where in the West is it as important, as culturally embedded, as it is in the USA where people define themselves by their cultural politics to a much greater extent than Europe, Canada, or down under. It’s like a perpetual Civil War and is ingrained into US culture.  

Trump has won two resounding victories. The percentages count for nothing if you don't get elected. The Democrats know how the American electoral system works. It's all about getting your candidate over the line. Harris didn't win a single swing state.

 

Trump is now the most powerful American President since Roosevelt. He's played the American public brilliantly. He can do what he wants, and he's already doing exactly that.

[tegs07]

3 minutes ago, Misdee said:

Trump has won two resounding victories. The percentages count for nothing if you don't get elected. The Democrats know how the American electoral system works. It's all about getting your candidate over the line. Harris didn't win a single swing state.

 

Trump is now the most powerful American President since Roosevelt. He's played the American public brilliantly. He can do what he wants, and he's already doing exactly that.

he certainly thinks he can do what he wants i will concede that.

lets keep an eye on the main thing that the average american wants. a lower cost of living and employment.

 

it’s going to be interesting being an experiment in an economic gamble. he has until the mid terms and a hope he can destroy the legal system and constitution in the interim.

Edited Wednesday at 09:55 by tegs07

[Agent 00Soul]

3 minutes ago, Misdee said:

Trump has won two resounding victories. The percentages count for nothing if you don't get elected. The Democrats know how the American electoral system works. It's all about getting your candidate over the line. Harris didn't win a single swing state.

 

Trump is now the most powerful American President since Roosevelt. He's played the American public brilliantly. He can do what he wants, and he's already doing exactly that.

So are you agreeing or disagreeing with me?  I had no idea that losing the popular vote in 2016 and winning 51% in 2024 is a “resounding” anything. Surely the question is why is he getting away with everything he’s doing on such a slim margin. I’ve tried to help explain why. 

[Daz39]

56 minutes ago, Wombat said:

It’s only a little blip. The 1st one in over 2 months…..

 

or he could have said ‘it’s only global thermonuclear war, the 1st one in over 2 months’.

 

the spin we are being sold now is amazing. And more amazing that a good portion of people swallow it!

I have already seen some comment on the lines of: “it was a mistake, it can’t happen again” from

maga voters…

[Agent 00Soul]

16 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

he has until the mid terms and a hope he can destroy the legal system and constitution in the interim.

That’s the goal. The two-year clock is ticking. If he can set enough of a precedent for a supine Congress that has abdicated its role by then, he’s won. The USA will at that point be what Viktor Orban calls an “illiberal democracy,” where elections are still held and enough of the system remains to keep it from looking like Putin’s Russia or Maduro’s Venezuela, but it isn’t the same as what has gone before, especially in cultural terms. Turkey is another example of this. I think Meloni would personally like Italy to be too but hasn’t gone as far. Who knows? Maybe more half of the US population will like it. 
 

Edited Wednesday at 10:12 by Agent 00Soul

[Misdee]

25 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

The worst political organisation in the history of political organisations managed to steer the US economy out of Covid, it managed to get GDP to one of the biggest growth rates of the G7, get inflation down from 10% to within tolerance of the 2% target. It created some of the lowest unemployment rates in modern US history and a stock market that was on fire.

 

Not bad for a bunch of losers. The truth of the matter is the US is losing its global dominance as is the west in general. Accepting this fact is crucial to planning a future strategy, getting all isolationist and trying to turn back the clock to pre globalisation is a risky strategy at best. Trumpism will outlive Trump and in the short term we will all be poorer. In the long term we might be less safe. On both sides of the Atlantic.

  Try to tell customers in a grocery store in most parts of the USA what a great job the Democrats did with the economy and you will be left in no doubt why Trump won. The statistics are irrelevant to ordinary people who feel much poorer and even more insecure.

 

The Democrats didn't steer the US economy out of COVID. Not did they ever really  get the US economy out of the financial crash of 2007/8. That's why they lost so badly both times.  

 

And regarding future global economic strategy, Trump and his acolytes have a very definite plan that they are already putting into practise. They are going to collaborate with their main competitors and adversaries, China and Russia, at the exclusion of the rest of the world. Between themselves they will dominate world trade whilst other nations get poorer and weaker as a result.

 

And regarding the stock market, Trump wants it to crash. That's because it will force the Fed to drastically lower interest rates overnight.  Above all, Trump represents the interests of capital, and big money wants low interest  rates. The Federal Reserve is one of the last bastions of independence in America,  so Trump will do whatever is necessary to force their hand.

Edited Wednesday at 10:15 by Misdee

[SumOne]

1 hour ago, tegs07 said:

I love the way you give these guys credit. If we look at the experience and credentials of the majority of Trump’s inner circle they don’t have the knowledge or experience to be doing the work they do. They are selected for ideological and loyalty purposes.

Add in the fact that Musk has sacked a whole layer of government officials whose job it is to understand the work that government departments do and relay that information to the president and there is a perfect storm of potential disaster.

 

Sure, I expect it was a mistake and they are idiots. But no-one seems to have considered the possibility that they did it on purpose, and I don't think it'd be some 3D chess genius masterstroke thing to do.

[tegs07]

16 minutes ago, Misdee said:

  Try to tell customers in a grocery store in most parts of the USA what a great job the Democrats did with the economy and you will be left in no doubt why Trump won. The statistics are irrelevant to ordinary people who feel much poorer and even more insecure.

 

The Democrats didn't steer the US economy out of COVID. Not did they ever really  get the US economy out of the financial crash of 2007/8. That's why they lost so badly both times.  

 

And regarding future global economic strategy, Trump and his acolytes have a very definite plan that they are already putting into practise. They are going to collaborate with their main competitors and adversaries, China and Russia, at the exclusion of the rest of the world. Between themselves they will dominate world trade whilst other nations get poorer and weaker as a result.

 

And regarding the stock market, Trump wants it to crash. That's because it will force the Fed to drastically lower interest rates overnight. 

sure, sure.. the democrats invaded ukraine and caused a global spike in energy prices. If Trump’s master plan is to collaborate with the BRICs who are strategically dismantling US economic and military dominance then he is wearing even bigger clown shoes than I realised.

Edited Wednesday at 10:27 by tegs07

[edstraker123]

2 hours ago, tegs07 said:

caused a global spike in energy prices

Wasn't it actually the sanctions imposed that caused the spike in energy prices. Definitely not saying that was the wrong thing to do but it could be argued the pain was self-inflicted.

 

Some sanctions on Israel would be nice for what they are doing but nobody seems to have any interest in that.

Edited Wednesday at 12:28 by edstraker123

[peteb]

3 hours ago, Misdee said:

  Try to tell customers in a grocery store in most parts of the USA what a great job the Democrats did with the economy and you will be left in no doubt why Trump won. The statistics are irrelevant to ordinary people who feel much poorer and even more insecure.

 

The Democrats didn't steer the US economy out of COVID. Not did they ever really  get the US economy out of the financial crash of 2007/8. That's why they lost so badly both times.  

 

And regarding future global economic strategy, Trump and his acolytes have a very definite plan that they are already putting into practise. They are going to collaborate with their main competitors and adversaries, China and Russia, at the exclusion of the rest of the world. Between themselves they will dominate world trade whilst other nations get poorer and weaker as a result.

 

And regarding the stock market, Trump wants it to crash. That's because it will force the Fed to drastically lower interest rates overnight.  Above all, Trump represents the interests of capital, and big money wants low interest  rates. The Federal Reserve is one of the last bastions of independence in America,  so Trump will do whatever is necessary to force their hand.

 

Come on, you’re just being an apologist for Trump! 

 

Biden did extremely well to rejuvenate the economy, following the chaos of Trump’s first presidency and the disastrous response to the pandemic. But no western economy has every really got over the financial crash of 2008 and the Trump heartlands were always going to suffer under any capitalist system. It has been aptly demonstrated that trickle-down economics just doesn’t work and the industries that these people rely on are finished. No amount of blaming Biden and the dems is going to change that and Trump is, if anything, going to make things much worse for them. 

 

Also, do you really believe that Trump and co have a definite plan regarding a future global economic strategy? China has no interest in propping up the USA as the world’s leading superpower and Russia will be forced to remain a war economy for the next ten / twenty years, as a hostile Europe starts to re-arm on their doorstep. Russia will take whatever it can from Trump, but won’t trust America in the medium (yet alone long) term, when the next US administration (or the one after) could be incredibly hostile. 

 

I think that you are underestimating the incompetence of the American right and the conflicting interests at play here. I would guess that the USA may well go down the route of a mixture of mid 90s Russia (probably without the bloodshed, but who knows) and post Brexit Britain. The growth of an oligarchy obsessed with its own wealth and status, mixed with a country finding that destroying trade with its established partners isn’t the best idea for running a major economy. 

 

Edited Wednesday at 13:21 by peteb

[tegs07]

Just now, edstraker123 said:

Wasn't it actually the sanctions imposed that caused the spike in energy prices. Definitely not saying that was the wrong thing to do but it could be argued the pain was self-inflicted.

They didn’t help. But prices were going up even on rumours of a pending invasion and in the first two weeks after the invasion, the prices of oil, coal and gas went up by around 40%, 130% and 180% respectively. Sanctions had barely been imposed or had time to make an impact in this timeframe.