Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[tegs07]

1 hour ago, Pseudonym said:

 

This brings us back to tariffs, in some ways. It was a given that increased nationalist sentiment would massively increase the potential for systems of tariffs if that sentiment led to the erosion of supranational political blocs that had their origins in trading blocs. One consequence is that sequence of formation was that the EU recognised how the development of some areas of economic activity (post-industrial and agile, for want of a shorthand) would be be at the expense of traditional, industrial, very static employment. Structural funds could help with this, but the real point was that the relationship was stipulated and "winners" were inherently required to compensate, however indirectly, for "losers".

 

That kind of arrangement involved numerous aspects that looked utterly bewildering and foolish to the kinds of people who believed the nonsense that the tabloid press and social media propagated. It is all fun and giggles when the "us" is good, solid, common-sense decent people, than "them" is the stereotypical faceless bureaucrat (who is, somehow, never a friend or neighbour). In reality, the "us" and "them" were, of course, the same entity: the public at large.

 

It was always the case that economic fortunes waxed and waned. A tariff regime can, in some instances, serve a useful purpose in cushioning the blows, or diluting an economic threat (such as dumping). If tariffs are understood in that fashion -- as a means, however imperfect, of redressing the balance of things that the public claims to care about -- perhaps the public will accept them. If it becomes yet another scapegoat for why people seem to struggle more to get less than they used to, I doubt anything will improve significantly.

 

Tariffs are, in themselves, a form of scapegoat unless there are precise economic reasons why a particular product, or nation, or whatever, should be targeted. This is plainly apparent in the current US approach to using them as cudgels and carrots, but it is not written in stone that there is only one set of rules to the game. There are massive problems in all of this, but also some opportunities to rectify a few of the errors of the recent past.

The main problem with tariffs as far as I understand them is that manufacturers are going to struggle to remain competitive in any export market as a significant amount of the things that they need from raw materials to vehicles to energy etc is going to increase in price. This is before thinking about labour costs. The cheap labour that provides cleaning, security, deliveries etc is being deported. If the current NAFTA is used as an example there are cheap raw materials from Canada, cheap labour from Mexico (even if we ignore things like pensions and health benefits that will have to be paid to a native worker). The export market could never compete with China or South East Asia unless people are prepared to work in dangerous conditions for very low pay.

 

If any country could be a self sufficient internal market I guess it’s the USA. Whether people have the stomach to suffer the high price of transition and the smaller choices and higher prices that come from an isolationist economy is another story.

 

It still doesn’t solve the dilemma of robotics, AI and an increasingly technologically sophisticated economy. There will still be wealth inequality. There will still be job losses due to technical innovation. 

Edited Wednesday at 18:44 by tegs07

[tegs07]

39 minutes ago, Dad3353 said:

 

Indeed, as I have tried to illustrate before, with some tongue in cheek. Looking for any rational 'solution' to any of this seems, to me, to be vain, as it is beyond the intellect of any one person, or collection of people. The scale is vast; it's difficult to 'manage' a village, so global geopolitics..? Not a chance. Do the best that one can in one's immediate vicinity seems, to me, to be the best one could hope for. The rest is, essentially, virtual, for 99.9999% of the Planet's population. What can be done about any of it..? One's best s'all. 

 

 

Fixed (see above; s'not possible for Humans to apprehend and master. Dial it all back, if it's not already too late...).

Countries successfully manage geopolitical challenges using many mechanisms. It’s tempting to think that all governments, intelligence agencies, civil servants, military heads etc are totally incompetent but the reality is a little more nuanced. Voting in idiots who isolate themselves from the vast wealth of experience required to successfully manage the present and plan for the future however is another matter. I know you don’t believe in voting but I really think it’s a hard won, powerful tool in the democratic system and people should use it wisely.

[Dad3353]

38 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

... I know you don’t believe in voting ...

 

I don't believe in voting for people that you don't, and can't, know. I vote locally with no qualms. 

[tegs07]

9 minutes ago, Dad3353 said:

 

I don't believe in voting for people that you don't, and can't, know. I vote locally with no qualms. 

me too. local mp. as i live in a city of around 500,000 people rather than a rural hamlet of less than 500 it gets a little more tricky to know the mp personally. he is about though and not completely anonymous. it’s easy enough to find enough facts to form a reasonably credible opinion.

[Pseudonym]

1 hour ago, tegs07 said:

me too. local mp. as i live in a city of around 500,000 people rather than a rural hamlet of less than 500 it gets a little more tricky to know the mp personally. he is about though and not completely anonymous. it’s easy enough to find enough facts to form a reasonably credible opinion.

 

Considering how often people seem surprised when the nice, quiet neighbour who keeps himself to himself turns out to have good reasons for keeping such a low profile, I am not sure that personal acquaintanceship is all that useful. At least the people who voted for Trump had some insight into his character, whereas plenty of us have learned the hard way that our parents never sent Champion to live on a farm upstate.

Edited Wednesday at 21:05 by Pseudonym

[Pseudonym]

2 hours ago, Dad3353 said:

 

Indeed, as I have tried to illustrate before, with some tongue in cheek. Looking for any rational 'solution' to any of this seems, to me, to be vain, as it is beyond the intellect of any one person, or collection of people. The scale is vast; it's difficult to 'manage' a village, so global geopolitics..? Not a chance. Do the best that one can in one's immediate vicinity seems, to me, to be the best one could hope for. The rest is, essentially, virtual, for 99.9999% of the Planet's population. What can be done about any of it..? One's best s'all.

 

We are all in rowing boats on the ocean. That said, I have no interest in attempting to conquer the ocean. I merely wish to evade the other idiots in their rowing boats, and avoid the inlets where they capsize and drown in large numbers. It's a bit like jazz improvisation.

[Dad3353]

1 minute ago, Pseudonym said:

 

We are all in rowing boats on the ocean...

 

 

[Pseudonym]

I heartily recommend the approach that Connie Sachs summarises in Smiley's People: "Grab yourself a bit of love and wait for Armageddon."

[prowla]

So, it's a 25% car tariff today.

 

It's a bit like Jesse's Diets: Today I are been mostly...

 

 

 

Edited Thursday at 08:33 by prowla

[prowla]

Incidentally, F1 is a US brand.

[tegs07]

2 minutes ago, prowla said:

So, it's a 25% car tariff today.

 

It's a bit like Jesse's Diets: Today I are been mostly...

cars and warships in the gulf feature on this this week’s episode 

[TimR]

Saw a whole bunch of deliberate misinformation and half truths over Rolls-Royce US. This week.

 

Seems it's the Aero Engine that's already built in the US and UK, that may be expanding production in the US specifically for the F35. However this was announced in 2022. 

 

 

[cetera]

1 hour ago, prowla said:

So, it's a 25% car tariff today.

 

They really do like punishing themselves don't they? Now they have to drive their own sh*tty cars....

Edited Thursday at 10:13 by cetera

[SteveXFR]

Trump has now had a rant about autism and how it's much more common now than 20 years ago but it's OK, he's getting Bobby to look in to it.

I guarantee that what Bobby won't find is that we're better at diagnosis now. Its no more common,  it just less cases going undiagnosed. What he'll probably find is that autism is the fault of Biden and woke.

[cetera]

2 minutes ago, SteveXFR said:

Trump has now had a rant about autism and how it's much more common now than 20 years ago but it's OK, he's getting Bobby to look in to it.

I guarantee that what Bobby won't find is that we're better at diagnosis now. Its no more common,  it just less cases going undiagnosed. What he'll probably find is that autism is the fault of Biden and woke.

Wonder if they'll look into dementia, misogyny and fascism while they're at it?

[SteveXFR]

1 minute ago, cetera said:

They really do like punishing themselves don't they? Now they have to drive their own sh*tty cars....

 

 

What's wrong with American cars?

 

 

[tegs07]

9 minutes ago, SteveXFR said:

Trump has now had a rant about autism and how it's much more common now than 20 years ago but it's OK, he's getting Bobby to look in to it.

I guarantee that what Bobby won't find is that we're better at diagnosis now. Its no more common,  it just less cases going undiagnosed. What he'll probably find is that autism is the fault of Biden and woke.

I find it interesting what some geopolitical analysts say about the aims of hostile regimes.

There are run of the mill objectives like disinformation, cyber attacks, espionage then there are the outlandish we are never going to achieve this but hey it’s worth a shot. This includes meddling with a country’s demographics to alter its mortality rates. Wild short scenarios are things like vaccination uptakes!

Edited Thursday at 10:23 by tegs07

[Si600]

11 minutes ago, SteveXFR said:

 

What's wrong with American cars?

 

The only American car anyone outside the US was buying in any great quantity turns out to have a Nazi as it's CEO...

[chris_b]

9 minutes ago, SteveXFR said:

 

 

What's wrong with American cars?

 

 

Which car used to regularly burst into flames, and invariably kill the occupants, when in rear impact accidents?  The car company kept making them after working out that they'd still make money because the cost of the court cases would be less than the sales figures!!! 

[BigRedX]

Just now, chris_b said:

Which car used to regularly burst into flames, and invariably kill the occupants, when in rear impact accidents?  The car company kept making them after working out that they'd still make money because the cost of the court cases would be less than the sales figures!!! 

 

That will be the Ford Pinto.

[TimR]

32 minutes ago, SteveXFR said:

Trump has now had a rant about autism and how it's much more common now than 20 years ago but it's OK, he's getting Bobby to look in to it.

I guarantee that what Bobby won't find is that we're better at diagnosis now. Its no more common,  it just less cases going undiagnosed. What he'll probably find is that autism is the fault of Biden and woke.

 

No he won't.

 

Because he's given it to an anti-vaxer 'scientist' to analyse. This scientist has already had loads of papers published and rescinded due to being completely wrong. So there will be a badly written paper issued proving the link, that the community will fall on, saying everything has been covered up.

 

https://www.unmc.edu/healthsecurity/transmission/2025/03/26/vaccine-skeptic-hired-to-head-federal-study-of-immunizations-and-autism/

 

It's a very scary prospect for the rest of the world. If the US becomes a hot bed for virual escape the rest of the world won't want to be going there anyway. 

Edited Thursday at 10:51 by TimR

[LeftyJ]

22 minutes ago, BigRedX said:

 

That will be the Ford Pinto.

 

This, and it resulted in 27 deaths between 1970 and 1977. 

 

28 people died in Tesla fires in 2023 alone. Several of these deaths could have been avoided if the doors of the car hadn't automatically locked after a crash and refused to open. 

[chris_b]

26 minutes ago, LeftyJ said:

 

This, and it resulted in 27 deaths between 1970 and 1977. 

 

28 people died in Tesla fires in 2023 alone. Several of these deaths could have been avoided if the doors of the car hadn't automatically locked after a crash and refused to open. 

 

Wow, I did not know that. A very good reason for a complete ban on Teslas.

[mybass]

2 minutes ago, chris_b said:

 

Wow, I did not know that. A very good reason for a complete ban on Teslas.

 

32 minutes ago, LeftyJ said:

 

This, and it resulted in 27 deaths between 1970 and 1977. 

 

28 people died in Tesla fires in 2023 alone. Several of these deaths could have been avoided if the doors of the car hadn't automatically locked after a crash and refused to open. 

…..so we wonder why these cars ever got on the road in Europe…

[prowla]

I wonder if there's going to be a tariff on aeroplanes next?

That would be fun for other countries to retaliate.