Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[Steve Browning]

15 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

In terms of geopolitics this is buying China and Russia time. Both countries have a brewing demographic crisis that will severely impact their economies.

 

For Europe it’s an opportunity but the EU moves very slowly.

 

I can’t see any benefits for the UK (other than improving relations with the EU). We keep dithering about where our economic loyalties lie and are getting poorer by the year.

 

For the US. Most likely stagflation and a weakened global position.

I think it's what that means 'on the ground' that I fear. I agree with that analysis (at the moment!!) but where does that lead? We may guess but we simply don't know.

[tegs07]

3 minutes ago, Steve Browning said:

I think it's what that means 'on the ground' that I fear. I agree with that analysis (at the moment!!) but where does that lead? We may guess but we simply don't know.

Do you mean on the ground in the US or in Europe/South China seas?

[JoeEvans]

An interesting article here:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/31/trump-greenland-us-morally-wrong-strategy-disastrous

The gist of it is that Trump's ridiculous posturing on Greenland is incredibly self-destructive, because it trashed the US's long-standing alliances and relationships while gaining nothing, given that the minerals etc in Greenland could be accessed via a straightforward commercial deal that would cost vastly less than any military action.

That's what I'm seeing across the board in the States - irrational, self-destructive dim-wittedness, driven by damaging, unconscious psychological factors instead of fact and analysis.

[tegs07]

5 minutes ago, JoeEvans said:

An interesting article here:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/mar/31/trump-greenland-us-morally-wrong-strategy-disastrous

The gist of it is that Trump's ridiculous posturing on Greenland is incredibly self-destructive, because it trashed the US's long-standing alliances and relationships while gaining nothing, given that the minerals etc in Greenland could be accessed via a straightforward commercial deal that would cost vastly less than any military action.

That's what I'm seeing across the board in the States - irrational, self-destructive dim-wittedness, driven by damaging, unconscious psychological factors instead of fact and analysis.

Indeed. At various points in history the US has been isolationist. It’s withdrawn from its ‘global policeman’ role, cut foreign spending and focused on internal issues. Trump has actually strengthened the hand of US adversaries and made its economic and military allies question US intentions. There is a difference between isolationist and being isolated.

[Steve Browning]

23 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

Do you mean on the ground in the US or in Europe/South China seas?

Everywhere really. So many of history's lessons not learned.

[tegs07]

32 minutes ago, Steve Browning said:

Everywhere really. So many of history's lessons not learned.

In terms of European security Trump publicly stating that the US might not honour Article 5 and slating NATOs effectiveness is the most irresponsible thing I have ever heard from a senior politician let alone a president. He has kick started an arms race which will most likely be nuclear. A country can’t double its army overnight but if it has nuclear knowledge and arms manufacturing capacity it can go nuclear very quickly.

 

Focusing on China and berating Europe for its military contribution behind closed doors would have been entirely justified.

 

Personally I think he has weakened Ukraine and emboldened Russian. They will continue their advance having been handed an opportunity. If they succeed Moldova will be next followed by false flag operations in Estonia IMO.

 

20000 missing Ukrainian children is no coincidence for a country facing a demographic crisis.

 

Europe will be continually subjected to  cyberattacks, infrastructure sabotage and disinformation. Romania are likely to go down the Hungary route and be a thorn in the EU side. Disinformation and electoral interference will continue as a highly effective strategy of destabilising democracy.

 

Rather than focusing on China (which is Trump’s stated aim) he is waging economic war on Europe and Canada and dragging US into an expensive and potentially protracted middle east conflict.

 

Geopolitically he is a disaster.

Economically he is a disaster.

In terms of disease prevention, global hunger, climate change he is a disaster.

 

Edit: Having a showboating media savvy idiot in charge is not necessarily a bad thing. Having an idiot in charge who surrounds himself with unqualified yes men, doesn’t listen to anyone and even worse disbands the agencies that actually know how to run a country and military, Now that is dangerous.

Edited Monday at 10:14 by tegs07

[TimR]

Wonder what mood he will be in when he wakes up this morning.

 

Will he concentrate on Putin and forget to postpone the Tarrifs in time for Wednesday? Because if he doesn't delay the Tarifs again that's going to be the real start of problems. 

[TimR]

Something that others may have realised but has just been highlighted to me.

 

Goods are travelling backwards and forwards multiple times during processesing, manufacture and assembly, between Mexico/US and Canada/US. This is going to be adding multiple lots of 25% each time a part crosses the border. Unless I'm missing something.

 

Raw aluminium into the US.

Processed aluminum back to Canada and made into a component.

Component back to US.

Component assembled into engine/gearbox and sent back to Canada.

Engine in to car and sent back to the US.

 

Just an example, probably just one of many.

 

Edited Monday at 10:47 by TimR

[tegs07]

5 minutes ago, TimR said:

Something that others may have realised but has just been highlighted to me.

 

Goods are travelling backwards and forwards multiple times during processesing, manufacture and assembly, between Mexico/US and Canada/US. This is going to be adding multiple lots of 25% each time a part crosses the border. Unless I'm missing something.

 

Raw aluminium into the US.

Processed aluminum back to Canada and made into a component.

Component back to US.

Component assembled into engine/gearbox and sent back to Canada.

Engine in to car and sent back to the US.

 

Just an example, probably just one of many.

 

Your not missing anything. Ford and GM have already flagged this with Trump. In public he is saying he doesn’t care if car prices increase, in private he is telling automakers not to increase prices (even though they point out that they will have no choice)!

[Steve Browning]

There are some reliefs available for goods that are temporarily imported for processing and then exported but that won't be available on all goods in all circumstances. 

[tegs07]

10 minutes ago, Steve Browning said:

There are some reliefs available for goods that are temporarily imported for processing and then exported but that won't be available on all goods in all circumstances. 

Also depending upon whatever whim he has tomorrow or who has slighted him or kissed his ring I suspect.

[Steve Browning]

There is that!!!

[tegs07]

51 minutes ago, TimR said:

Something that others may have realised but has just been highlighted to me.

 

Goods are travelling backwards and forwards multiple times during processesing, manufacture and assembly, between Mexico/US and Canada/US. This is going to be adding multiple lots of 25% each time a part crosses the border. Unless I'm missing something.

 

Raw aluminium into the US.

Processed aluminum back to Canada and made into a component.

Component back to US.

Component assembled into engine/gearbox and sent back to Canada.

Engine in to car and sent back to the US.

 

Just an example, probably just one of many.

 

Should help clarify things:

 

 

[tegs07]

8 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

Should help clarify things:

 

 

Edit: Stupid glasses, intelligent analysis.

[edstraker123]

16 hours ago, prowla said:

Trumpy is now pee'd off with Pooty.

And Zelensky if you read outside of the bbc https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drones-kharkiv-offensive-1d2f793cc99798b0e491b9dde8e0cee0

[tegs07]

10 minutes ago, edstraker123 said:

And Zelensky if you read outside of the bbc https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drones-kharkiv-offensive-1d2f793cc99798b0e491b9dde8e0cee0

and iran and yemen and denmark and france and germany and canada and the judiciary and the media and biden and and and 😂

 

 

Edit: Breaking news. Apparently it’s been revealed that Mr Fred Hamilton of 5 Arcacia Avenue is one of the few people not to have upset Trump. When interviewed Fred reportedly said this was unexpected news as he has always thought the man to be a massive orange bell end.

Edited Monday at 12:10 by tegs07

[Buddster]

Ukraine /Russia talks not going to plan? 

Tarrifs causing shares to fall? 

Security leaks causing a problem? 

 

Then you need to talk about serving an unconstitutional 3rd term and deflect all the attention away to some other mumbo jumbo b*llsh*t. 

 

He's the world bigglyest troll. Which the media would stop falling for it and grill him on the important issues. 

 

Edited Monday at 15:15 by Buddster

[martthebass]

3 hours ago, TimR said:

Something that others may have realised but has just been highlighted to me.

 

Goods are travelling backwards and forwards multiple times during processesing, manufacture and assembly, between Mexico/US and Canada/US. This is going to be adding multiple lots of 25% each time a part crosses the border. Unless I'm missing something.

 

Raw aluminium into the US.

Processed aluminum back to Canada and made into a component.

Component back to US.

Component assembled into engine/gearbox and sent back to Canada.

Engine in to car and sent back to the US.

 

Just an example, probably just one of many.

 

Yes, for a 'Businessman' Trump is showing clear signs of a total lack of understanding of supply chains and global manufacturing.  He clearly has no strategy for re-domesticating manufacturing industry - he would do well to study re-engineering in the 'Chinese' vein.  There are areas where the retool/re-eng time would be measured in years and that's even with a fair wind and an expectation that final unit cost would increase.  Using tariffs as a blunt tool can only fail....

[prowla]

5 hours ago, edstraker123 said:

And Zelensky if you read outside of the bbc https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-drones-kharkiv-offensive-1d2f793cc99798b0e491b9dde8e0cee0

(I was just happy I managed to get trump, pee, and poo into the same sentence!)

[edstraker123]

3 hours ago, prowla said:

I was just happy I managed to get trump, pee, and poo into the same sentence!)

You have a gift indeed sir ! 😄

[Downunderwonder]

15 hours ago, TimR said:

Something that others may have realised but has just been highlighted to me.

 

Goods are travelling backwards and forwards multiple times during processesing, manufacture and assembly, between Mexico/US and Canada/US. This is going to be adding multiple lots of 25% each time a part crosses the border. Unless I'm missing something.

 

Raw aluminium into the US.

Processed aluminum back to Canada and made into a component.

Component back to US.

Component assembled into engine/gearbox and sent back to Canada.

Engine in to car and sent back to the US.

 

Just an example, probably just one of many.

 

 

15 hours ago, Steve Browning said:

There are some reliefs available for goods that are temporarily imported for processing and then exported but that won't be available on all goods in all circumstances. 

Automates will write the Bill/ unconstitional decree on the orange joker's behalf.

 

Aluminum content ex US zero rated for part import etc etc

 

Probably some magnificently complicated tax credit scheme  being written up right now  Get your tax credits if you bring the production back to USA [ or Canafa] the real reason Canada is up for annexation, in a 3 year time frame.

 

Of course they would ask for an extension but get the credits anyway, only another 4 years needed to get it done.

[SumOne]

I don't want to seem a fan of Trump, but I do feel that people take these tariffs as some crazy global market disaster - rather than just being reciprocal. Of all the Trump policies, this one feels the most sane. It is an upheaval, but possibly needed doing if the USA wants to bring manufacturing in-country and for supply chains to be less globalised, it is a big enough country that it could potentially do that (the UK would have bigger problems trying the same).

 

I don't know about every industry or if the tariffs will actually be fair and reciprocal but the UK, and EU and almost everyone else either have subsidies or tariffs to artificially skew markets and favour themselves. If the UK subsidises UK Steel then why shouldn't the US add a tariff on its import to balance things with US Steel prices? If the EU charges 24% tariff on US Jam imports, and USA charges 4.5% tariff on EU jam imports - why shouldn't the US do what it can to balance that? 

 

 

 

 

Edited 22 hours ago by SumOne

[tegs07]

45 minutes ago, SumOne said:

I don't want to seem a fan of Trump, but I do feel that people take these tariffs as some crazy global market disaster - rather than just being reciprocal. Of all the Trump policies, this one feels the most sane. It is an upheaval, but possibly needed doing if the USA wants to bring manufacturing in-country.

 

I don't know about every industry of if the tariffs will be fair and reciprocal but  the UK, and EU and almost everyone else either have subsidies or tariffs and artificially skew markets. If the UK subsidises UK Steel then why shouldn't the US add a tariff on its import to balance things with US Steel prices? If the EU charges 24% tariff on US Jam imports, and USA charges 4.5% tariff on EU jam imports - why shouldn't the US do what it can to balance that? 

 

 

 

 

De globalisation has been a policy in the US since Covid. The Biden administration were doing this and were raising Tariffs, particularly for China.

It is not new. The thing about Tariffs and de globalisation is that it has to be planned and implemented properly. An arbitrary 30 days (with daily whims) hardly allows any industry or regulatory authority time to unwind 40 years of trading arrangements. It is the pace and chaotic implementation of the tariffs that are the real issue.

 In terms of the impact for the USA manufacturing needs time to retool, reskill. Do they have the energy capacity, can they use local raw materials, can the by products be safely disposed of etc. Does it make economic sense to make everything rather than the components that you specialise in and have other manufacturers specialise in what they do best. NAFTA has been a mutually beneficial arrangement between the US, Canada and Mexico for decades. To say that the US gets a bad deal is just plain wrong.

Also some industries will need government support and even with this support will take years to make the transition away from outsourced supply chains.

 

Trumps chaotic approach is more likely to create a global recession and a spike in the cost of living than achieve any meaningful growth in GDP in the short term. In the long term IMO he has derailed a very successful start to US on shoring.

 

One thing I can guarantee is that there will be a lot of money raised from tariffs. I wonder whose pockets it will end up in?

 

Edit: Trump constantly showboats and gripes about all sorts of things and makes grandiose statements that are filled with half truths, downright lies and misinformation. Historically tariffs have been applied to protect certain key industries agriculture and steel being prime examples.

As a further note a lot of US products don’t even meet the regulatory standards of other countries again agriculture and cars being good examples.

Edited 21 hours ago by tegs07
clarity

[chris_b]

55 minutes ago, SumOne said:

I don't want to seem a fan of Trump, but I do feel that people take these tariffs as some crazy global market disaster - rather than just being reciprocal. Of all the Trump policies, this one feels the most sane. It is an upheaval, but possibly needed doing if the USA wants to bring manufacturing in-country and for supply chains to be less globalised. . . .

 

It's doomed from the start. Americans are not going to work for pennies, as Asians often do. They will work for dollars, which will price most of these on-shored products out of the market.

[tegs07]

4 minutes ago, chris_b said:

 

It's doomed from the start. Americans are not going to work for pennies, as Asians often do. They will work for dollars, which will price most of these on-shored products out of the market.

Over time IMO there will be a shift towards local production. People will have to adjust to a higher cost world. Various factors from Chinese demographics, shipping costs, geopolitics etc will reshape our trading arrangements. It won’t happen overnight but it will happen.

Edited 21 hours ago by tegs07