Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[SteveXFR]

On the subject of Boris, look up Fuzz Townshend and Boris Johnson then ask yourself, why hasn't Fuzz been knighted?

[super al]

4 hours ago, SteveXFR said:

I wonder how many countries are currently arming their elite assassins with orange seeking sniper rifles.

Apparently (I read it on the internet 😁) some of the comments Putin has made since Nov 5th have been thinly veiled threats to Donny to be nice to Moscow or else.

There must be an assassin or two in Russia who won't make a balls up of it like they did in Salisbury. 

I guess POTUS don't get to touch door handles anyway.

[SteveXFR]

1 hour ago, mcnach said:

 

It's hard to do it twice, arguably.

 

It needs doing twice if you miss first time or he's a vampire. 

[Obrienp]

4 hours ago, Leonard Smalls said:

This is a little bit debateable... While the first world war was a direct result of firstly Austria-Hungary issuing an ultimatum to Serbia after Archduke Ferdinand was assassinated, and Germany (Austria-Hungary's ally) declaring war on Russia (Austria Hungary's ally) because Serbia and its ally Russia had been getting all threaty, then deciding to sort out France (Russia's ally) via Belgium to bypass the Maginot line, there were many deeper causes... Such as military build up, imperialism etc - basically both sides wanted a scrap to see who had built their war machines better, and propaganda on both sides had built up the others to be monsters ("they eat babies!!!"). Hence a great deal of enthusiasm from yer patriotic folks to go and get slaughtered cos the generals were rubbish!

Then the Treaty of Versailles beat Germany sufficiently to cause resentment, which encouraged the rise of Hitler, but not enough to stop them rebuilding with ease once Adolf got the Daily Mail and Edward VII on board!

or at least that's what we were taught for history O level...

Yes, it was a gross simplification. Basically, what the winning sides told them after they lost. The victors get to write the narrative. However, the German people did have collective guilt for their past militarism, the Nazis and the holocaust. That led to their post war consensus on military spending, how their military could be deployed, etc, which was the main point of my post. 

[Agent 00Soul]

20 hours ago, Lozz196 said:

I think it’s pretty much on the cards he’ll keep on until he either dies or is taken out sadly. Seems - at present - only NATO membership keeps him out. Time will tell if he decides to put this to the test.

I know you are talking about Putin, but in so many ways this could be about Trump too with only a few things changed. 

[Al Krow]

On 28/02/2025 at 15:08, Lozz196 said:

Yep, although I’m not a Labour man I like Wes Streeting and am hopeful he can get some things moving in the right direction.

 

Me neither in terms of being a Labour man (well not for a long while anyway!) but I've always tried to give credit where it's due to anyone who's earned it, and it seems that our PM is playing a blinder right now!

 

If he (i) manages to secure a tariff free position with the USA and (ii) gets a credible UK/France/Ukraine peace plan on the table as alternative to the ridiculous Trump/Putin carve up of Ukraine (lest anyone forgets what happened post the Bug River carve up of Poland in 1939) he will have earned his place as a statesman this parliament.

[Lozz196]

Agree, credit where it’s due, the PM has been good over the recent weeks events. 

[prowla]

11 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

 

Me neither in terms of being a Labour man (well not for a long while anyway!) but I've always tried to give credit where it's due to anyone who's earned it, and it seems that our PM is playing a blinder right now!

 

If he (i) manages to secure a tariff free position with the USA and (ii) gets a credible UK/France/Ukraine peace plan on the table as alternative to the ridiculous Trump/Putin carve up of Ukraine (lest anyone forgets what happened post the Bug River carve up of Poland in 1939) he will have earned his place as a statesman this parliament.

 

I have to say I find myself having to think about re-calibrating my scepticism-o-meter.

 

Edited yesterday at 10:30 by prowla

[Obrienp]

I’ve been reflecting on what looks like the USA and Europe parting company, perhaps even the break up of NATO in its current form. It might not turn out as badly as we might fear. Trump is pushing Europe to stand on its own feet. What he might not have thought about is that a unified and strong Europe might not need the USA as much. In fact, Europe might end up independent enough to be able to pick and chose which US initiatives we want to support. We might even decide we don’t want the US presence on our soil, we don’t want them spying on our citizens and we don’t need to share intelligence to the same degree.

 

Flies in the ointment? Well there are plenty: we would need an alternative to GPS and Starlink. Many more European owned surveillance satellites. We need our own systems in our nuclear arsenal (rather than equipment supplied and controlled by the US). A much larger and more productive arms industry able to replace high tech weapon systems like the F-35, it goes on. It’s not something we can do in the four years that Trump is going to be in office (we hope). I can’t see the UK wanting (or being able) to go down this road but the French have always liked to plough their own furrow and do seem more capable when it comes to getting big projects going.

 

Discuss.

Edited yesterday at 10:47 by Obrienp

[SteveXFR]

I've been a bit disappointed with Starmer, very uninspiring and utterly useless at communicating with the public but I've got to agree he's doing really well the last couple weeks. 

I occasionally check out GB News (know your enemy and all that) and realised that even they are finding it tough to attack him because they just don't report on anything he's done well.

[Cato]

Starmer is walking an impossible tight rope.

 

So far he's doing a superb job but it's only a matter of time before Trump throws his toys out over the huge respect Zelensky gets in Europe and the UK.

 

I saw some speculation in the press that Zelensky meeting the king just might trigger a Trump tantrum.

 

It's utterly ridiculous that the continuing US membership of NATO might rest on such utterly trivial matters, but apparently here we are.

Edited yesterday at 12:12 by Cato

[tegs07]

Often when people speak about the impotence of NATO without the USA they forget that Turkey and Finland combined have as big a presence.

Sure they don’t have the hardware but the Ukraine war has highlighted how cheap drones can be very effective against multi million pound equipment.

Germany, France and the UK can learn a lot of lessons about how to invest in defence and modernise their defence capabilities. It’s late but hopefully not too late. As for Ukraine right now I am very concerned.

 

It’s time for Europe to step up as culturally and geopolitically under Trump, Vance and Musk the USA is drifting into some pretty dubious territory.

Europe needs to rise to the challenge and I have to admit to being surprised by Starmer and Macron.

We need diplomats. Even the language being used by the GOP to describe people who they disagree with I find violent and repulsive. It’s not TikTok. These comments and narrative are being replayed on the world stage.

China must be relishing these developments. If I was a leader of a country in the far east on the fence about whether to put my trust in China or the USA it would now be China. At least you know what you are getting into. Trumps duplicity with Macron and Starmer and subsequent treatment of Zelensky has laid bare to the world he is not to be trusted.

Edited yesterday at 12:26 by tegs07

[tauzero]

I can only assume that everyone heaping praise on Starmer DGAF about the foreign aid that he's slashing for defence rather than employing wealth taxes and/or taxing the excessive profits of energy companies. Presumably he's gone this way to attract more Reform voters.

[Agent 00Soul]

Donald Tusk, the Polish PM, said it well this morning:

 

“A Europe that understands its global potential, its status as a superpower, will not be an alternative to the US, but the most wanted ally. In the end, that’s what Trump wants, for Europe to take much greater responsibility for its security,” he said.

“It’s a paradox, someone rightly pointed this out, that 500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them from 140 millions Russians.”

 

He was too diplomatic to say that one of the American political parties representing almost half the US population no longer shares the supposed values of most European countries anyway, but it’s the truth of course. 

[tegs07]

10 minutes ago, tauzero said:

I can only assume that everyone heaping praise on Starmer DGAF about the foreign aid that he's slashing for defence rather than employing wealth taxes and/or taxing the excessive profits of energy companies. Presumably he's gone this way to attract more Reform voters.

I think we need to separate out the domestic politics from the international diplomacy.

[Al Krow]

8 minutes ago, Agent 00Soul said:

He was too diplomatic to say that one of the American political parties representing almost half the US population no longer shares the supposed values of most European countries anyway, but it’s the truth of course. 

 

Last point maybe a bit harsh? My sense is that the vast majority of Americans, deep down, are good people at heart and share so many cherished values with us. The sad truth is that is probably also true of very many Russians. 

 

Edited yesterday at 12:52 by Al Krow

[Geddys nose]

We have to be careful with the US military hardware too, they need constant updates or they just turn into scrap metal (Re Afghanistan)
Rory Stewart says all the intel goes directly to the US from the planes and we buy it back off them, then we have the security issues with sharing intel with the US and the gaping holes not having their Intel to fill in the blanks that we don’t know about,  add to that satellite coverage that Europe uses for  it’s military needs. 
 

Won’t be an easy process weaning our self’s off the US and getting our stuff in the skys.

[chris_b]

28 minutes ago, Agent 00Soul said:

“It’s a paradox, someone rightly pointed this out, that 500 million Europeans are asking 300 million Americans to defend them from 140 millions Russians.”

 

Just one Russian.

[Steve Browning]

1 hour ago, tegs07 said:

Often when people speak about the impotence of NATO without the USA they forget that Turkey and Finland combined have as big a presence.

Sure they don’t have the hardware but the Ukraine war has highlighted how cheap drones can be very effective against multi million pound equipment.

Germany, France and the UK can learn a lot of lessons about how to invest in defence and modernise their defence capabilities. It’s late but hopefully not too late. As for Ukraine right now I am very concerned.

 

 

Interestingly (and I'll have to pop round and kill you all after this), when I was employed in the Defence Evaluation and Research Agency (called the secret branch of the MoD in the papers), I was sat next to a guy who was desinging missiles for use in 30 years time. This was back in the mid 90's and it was said that the future battlefield would be about (what they called) micro planes. Small planes with a wingspan of 6" or so. That may not be entirely the case but the rise of the drone clearly indicates that train of thought.

[Burns-bass]

42 minutes ago, chris_b said:

 

Just one Russian.

 

Putin isn't directly threatening the UK. We need to reconsider just what level of threat this is to you, me and our way of life and work from there. Starmer may relish his role as a statesman and commit to putting troops on the ground in Ukraine, but this is a really dangerous path to follow.

 

The media seems impossible of conceptualising this through any other paradigm than WW2, but Putin isn't Hitler and he's not about to set tanks rolling across Europe toward London.

 

But surely we have leverage? Err, what exactly? The UK has no empire anymore. We have no industrial base and we have no armed forces. W

 

As part of Europe and NATO, we can define a response, but the idea of the UK as having any direct influence or power is nonsense. Our real leverage here is the relationship we have with America, and that – as the treatment of Zelensky shows – can change very quickly and decisively.

 

While it's great to Starmer rack up the air miles and talk a good game, it's just that. Talking. 

 

 

 

[tegs07]

3 minutes ago, Burns-bass said:

 

Putin isn't directly threatening the UK. We need to reconsider just what level of threat this is to you, me and our way of life and work from there. Starmer may relish his role as a statesman and commit to putting troops on the ground in Ukraine, but this is a really dangerous path to follow.

 

The media seems impossible of conceptualising this through any other paradigm than WW2, but Putin isn't Hitler and he's not about to set tanks rolling across Europe toward London.

 

But surely we have leverage? Err, what exactly? The UK has no empire anymore. We have no industrial base and we have no armed forces. W

 

As part of Europe and NATO, we can define a response, but the idea of the UK as having any direct influence or power is nonsense. Our real leverage here is the relationship we have with America, and that – as the treatment of Zelensky shows – can change very quickly and decisively.

 

While it's great to Starmer rack up the air miles and talk a good game, it's just that. Talking. 

 

 

 

Putin has repeatedly said that former soviet bloc countries are Russian and has imperialist views about reclaiming them. This includes countries in the EU and NATO.

[chris_b]

4 minutes ago, Burns-bass said:

 

While it's great to Starmer rack up the air miles and talk a good game, it's just that. Talking. 

 

 

This situation is going to be resolved by talking.

 

The problem with Trump when his mouth is moving he's not talking, he's lying.

[Burns-bass]

12 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

Putin has repeatedly said that former soviet bloc countries are Russian and has imperialist views about reclaiming them. This includes countries in the EU and NATO.

 

I'm sure he's said an awful lot of things. Trump has said he's going to make Canada a US state. Do you believe that?

 

I'm not an apologist for Putin, but a pragmatist. If he attempts to invade Poland or Latvia (which he won't) then NATO would have every right to go to war. I also think that we should rebuild our armed forces, invest in our manufacturing base to produce arms and provide support where it's needed. But the histrionic nonsense about Russia an existential threat to the UK from Starmer that inflames tension just makes people afraid.

 

Here's a reasonable article setting out that premise and why we need a European realignment: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/feb/21/donald-trump-jd-vance-europe-us-realignment.

[Burns-bass]

Oh, and I know people find it distasteful that we sometimes need to placate regimes (and individuals like Putin) with abhorrent political views, but it's what the UK has done throughout history. The UK has no moral high ground.

[tegs07]

8 minutes ago, Burns-bass said:

 

I'm sure he's said an awful lot of things. Trump has said he's going to make Canada a US state. Do you believe that?

 

I'm not an apologist for Putin, but a pragmatist. If he attempts to invade Poland or Latvia (which he won't) then NATO would have every right to go to war. I also think that we should rebuild our armed forces, invest in our manufacturing base to produce arms and provide support where it's needed. But the histrionic nonsense about Russia an existential threat to the UK from Starmer that inflames tension just makes people afraid.

 

Here's a reasonable article setting out that premise and why we need a European realignment: https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/feb/21/donald-trump-jd-vance-europe-us-realignment.

After Ukraine then Macedonia. At what point do we get concerned?

Georgia was ignored first….

Edited yesterday at 14:37 by tegs07