Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[prowla]

2 hours ago, Burns-bass said:

 

Zelensky is a strong chap, I get that. The problem is he and his government are mired in corruption claims and have links with some very dodgy characters. He's not universally popular or a Churchillian figure (and even Churchill wasn't universally popular, of course). He may wish to fight on, but we don't really know if that reflects the current views of his country. (This is a point Trump made in very crass terms.)

 

I think we fundamentally disagree about the future. Russia has been portrayed as an expansionist regime that plans to roll across Europe and threaten the UK. If that were the case, then I'd 100% support putting the UK on a war footing. 

 

I simply don't think this is ever going to happen or was ever Putin's plan. I think we're being pushed in a very dangerous direction and that Starmer even threatening to put UK troops into Ukraine massively increases the risk of escalation and all the horrors that brings. 

 

Diplomacy means making deals with the wrong people for the right reasons. 

 

Guess we see what happens. Perhaps I'll meet you in the trenches somewhere over there. (Although at 44 and asthmatic, I'm not sure I'd be much good.)

 

 

Putin's plan is to "reclaim" the territories of the USSR and Make Russia Great Again.

I'm not sure what the Russian word for Lebensraum is, but the lessons of history tell us that appeasing expansionism is not a solution.

The expectation was that they would stroll into Kiev like Hitler into the Sudetenland and Austria, but that backfired.

(Ironically any assertion of a neutral buffer between the USSR and NATO also backfired with Finland and Sweden joining and thereby has created a direct border.)

Anything which cedes territory to Russia only pushes the frontier forward for their next move.

[prowla]

The bloc system seems to be becoming reestablished and shifting towards 1984:

• Eurasia: Russia has expansionism into the former USSR territories.
• Oceania: Across the pond we have the Make America Great Again movement, with the USA aspiring to subsume Canada, Mexico, and Greenland.
• Eastasia: On the other side of the world we have China ready to move on Taiwan.

[tegs07]

19 minutes ago, prowla said:

 

Putin's plan is to "reclaim" the territories of the USSR and Make Russia Great Again.

I'm not sure what the Russian word for Lebensraum is, but the lessons of history tell us that appeasing expansionism is not a solution.

The expectation was that they would stroll into Kiev like Hitler into the Sudetenland and Austria, but that backfired.

(Ironically any assertion of a neutral buffer between the USSR and NATO also backfired with Finland and Sweden joining and thereby has created a direct border.)

Anything which cedes territory to Russia only pushes the frontier forward for their next move.

I would add that the unstated position is to take advantage of economic turbulence to spread disinformation, interfere in domestic politics, disrupt communication links, disrupt cyber security, create internal tensions, promote nationalism and weaken international alliances. Trump is a gift.

 

Edit: I would also add to keep the price of oil and gas at peak prices whilst selling it at favourable prices to strategic partners.

Edited 8 hours ago by tegs07

[Dad3353]

OK, I know that it's only the much-sneered-at Wikipedia, but there's (in my view...) a quite decent résumé of how all of this came about, including the reasons why those in the present-day Russia believe Ukraine to be Russian. Worth a read, even at the expense of skipping over the Medieval stuff, and concentrating on the post-WWII history (although it's all good, really, and quite an enlightenment...)....

 

Wikipedia : Ukraine...

 

Much of it will come as news to many participating in this discussion; another perspective may be gained from its perusal. Just sayin'. 

[Crusoe]

I wonder if Putin could be persuaded to invade Afghanistan...

[Beedster]

29 minutes ago, Dad3353 said:

OK, I know that it's only the much-sneered-at Wikipedia, but there's (in my view...) a quite decent résumé of how all of this came about, including the reasons why those in the present-day Russia believe Ukraine to be Russian. Worth a read, even at the expense of skipping over the Medieval stuff, and concentrating on the post-WWII history (although it's all good, really, and quite an enlightenment...)....

 

Wikipedia : Ukraine...

 

Much of it will come as news to many participating in this discussion; another perspective may be gained from its perusal. Just sayin'. 

 

Yep, posted this book earlier, the subtitle is a stark reminder, because it's a view that not many in the West consider (also worthing noting that Churchill and Roosevelt considered siding with the defeated German army to push the Soviets back east...

 

[Downunderwonder]

4 hours ago, Burns-bass said:

You really want to put the UK on the road to war with Russia?

No. Listen to yourself giving Russia breathing room to re equip and march on.

 

4 hours ago, Burns-bass said:

Russia has always wanted to have a buffer zone around it to protect it from NATO and the western sphere of influence. This has been part of the uneasy peace deals we’ve had for years. 

Too bad. Russia upset the peace all by themselves for no reason other than empire building. They can have their buffer in the form of large military free zones both sides of the old border. Either party breaks protocol and the offending hardware is freely shot at  from the other side after being warned off.

 

Ukraine kicking it off would be in breach of their Nato membership and be on their own.

 

Russia could try to kick it off with another false flag exercise so keep an extra buffer on the Ukrainian side and blow it up themselves before it gets to the actual zone.

[tegs07]

2 minutes ago, Downunderwonder said:

No. Listen to yourself giving Russia breathing room to re equip and march on.

 

Too bad. Russia upset the peace all by themselves for no reason other than empire building. They can have their buffer in the form of large military free zones both sides of the old border. Either party breaks protocol and the offending hardware is freely shot at  from the other side after being warned off.

 

Ukraine kicking it off would be in breach of their Nato membership and be on their own.

 

Russia could try to kick it off with another false flag exercise so keep an extra buffer on the Ukrainian side and blow it up themselves before it gets to the actual zone.

The problem with your “solution” is it requires permanent warfare until one side runs out of manpower or money. Without the US $ Ukraine will run out of money even before it runs out of personnel.

[mcnach]

2 hours ago, Leonard Smalls said:

Not because Putin (mistakenly) thinks that Ukraine has always been part of Russia, or that fascist Ukrainians were targeting Russians living in the Donbas region? 

 

Are you suggesting their narrative changes to suit the context of the talk?  They'd never do that... 

[Mrbigstuff]

4 hours ago, tegs07 said:

Where we disagree is you equate what Russia, China, North Korea, Iran etc are up to as C20th century warfare. It isn’t. This is an entirely different form of geopolitical conflict.

 

It seems to be quite a while now that the far right have been utilising social media to spread misinformation across continents and influence people’s beliefs and votes. I cannot believe in this day and age that the benefactors aren’t all aligned and these attacks aren’t planned by ringleaders. The US has succumbed and election results suggest influence is rapidly growing across countries in Europe, UK included.

[edstraker123]

26 minutes ago, Mrbigstuff said:

4 hours ago, tegs07 said:

 

It seems to be quite a while now that the far right have been utilising social media to spread misinformation across continents and influence people’s beliefs and votes.

Is it just the far right that do this or anybody with an agenda ? If you look at even mainstream media - BBC reporting for example and take notice of their use of adjectives, it is clear they are far from balanced. A lot of people suffer from confirmation bias so this largely goes unnoticed.

[tegs07]

Just now, edstraker123 said:

Is it just the far right that do this or anybody with an agenda ? If you look at even mainstream media - BBC reporting for example and take notice of their use of adjectives, it is clear they are far from balanced. A lot of people suffer from confirmation bias so this largely goes unnoticed.

There’s a great deal of difference between bias (unconscious or otherwise) and total lies.

[Obrienp]

2 hours ago, Dad3353 said:

OK, I know that it's only the much-sneered-at Wikipedia, but there's (in my view...) a quite decent résumé of how all of this came about, including the reasons why those in the present-day Russia believe Ukraine to be Russian. Worth a read, even at the expense of skipping over the Medieval stuff, and concentrating on the post-WWII history (although it's all good, really, and quite an enlightenment...)....

 

Wikipedia : Ukraine...

 

Much of it will come as news to many participating in this discussion; another perspective may be gained from its perusal. Just sayin'. 

Interesting reading. Perhaps could be summarised as, after a period of European dominance in the middle-ages, Ukraine has been shafted by every passing empire. In some ways, quite a similar history to Poland.

[TimR]

6 minutes ago, Obrienp said:

Interesting reading. Perhaps could be summarised as, after a period of European dominance in the middle-ages, Ukraine has been shafted by every passing empire. In some ways, quite a similar history to Poland.

And probably Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. It's all a hangover of the start of last century. 

[Obrienp]

2 minutes ago, TimR said:

And probably Czech Republic, Slovakia and Hungary. It's all a hangover of the start of last century. 

Well, it seems to go a long way further back than the last century for Ukraine. It’s like every invader and empire has tried to eradicate their culture and sense of identity, and in many cases just ethnically cleanse them off the face of the Earth but despite that, they have sprung back.

[tegs07]

Donald Trump has said America should “spend less time worrying about Putin”.

Taking to his Truth Social overnight, Mr Trump said more time should spent focusing on “migrant rape gangs, drug lords, murderers, and people from mental institutions entering our country - so that we don’t end up like Europe!”

 

 

…. well that is a rational response. This bloke is truly unhinged.

[Agent 00Soul]

Why do US Republicans and the European public always manage to trigger one another so quickly?  It's like chalk and cheese.  I've noticed it since Reagan, but especially in the 21st century, there always seems to be this big contretemps when a Republican president enters the White House.

[Dad3353]

1 hour ago, tegs07 said:

Donald Trump has said America should “spend less time worrying about Putin”.

Taking to his Truth Social overnight, Mr Trump said more time should spent focusing on “migrant rape gangs, drug lords, murderers, and people from mental institutions entering our country - so that we don’t end up like Europe!”

 

 

…. well that is a rational response. This bloke is truly unhinged.

 

Remind me again which two brothers left Romania for the US of A just recently, and of what they are accused (and, to be 'fair', they both deny...)..?  

Edited 3 hours ago by Dad3353

[TimR]

54 minutes ago, Agent 00Soul said:

Why do US Republicans and the European public always manage to trigger one another so quickly?  It's like chalk and cheese.  I've noticed it since Reagan, but especially in the 21st century, there always seems to be this big contretemps when a Republican president enters the White House.

 

Our left wingers tend to be very vocal. Republicans are seen as right wing and Democrats, not so right wing. They also tend to be very vocal when conservatives are in, and when Labour get in, the Conservative supporters just aren't so vocal.

 

Except for Refrom voters who are just noisey all the time. 

[Woodinblack]

1 hour ago, tegs07 said:

Taking to his Truth Social overnight, Mr Trump said more time should spent focusing on “migrant rape gangs, drug lords, murderers, and people from mental institutions entering our country - so that we don’t end up like Europe!”

 

And then they decided to get Andrew Tate in

[tegs07]

Now we have Musk calling for the US to pull out of NATO. A legal challenge but not impossible. Massive problem for Europe but also the end of US presence in Europe, Asia and Africa.

These guys don’t understand what the ramifications would be for US economic and political interests. They may as well just declare themselves bankrupt. The US as a military superpower would be severely weakened. Sure they have the troops and hardware but the logistics would be screwed.

Also the $ as a world reserve currency IMO would be severely undermined without the military might.

 

 

Edited 2 hours ago by tegs07

[prowla]

I'm wondering if we could be on the edge of seeing the so-called "free world" we've enjoyed for the past half a century disintegrate.