Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[peteb]

4 minutes ago, steantval said:

That Carney guy was a nightmare when he was head of the Bank of England, he was always talking things down, affecting the markets in a really negative way.

 

You mean that he was 'truthful' and 'realistic'? 

 

[Staggering on]

7 minutes ago, steantval said:

That Carney guy was a nightmare when he was head of the Bank of England, he was always talking things down, affecting the markets in a really negative way.

 

He was the head of the Bank of Canada before he headed across the pond, I don't know how well he did things here.

He won the party leadership by a huge landslide last night (86% and next closest was 8%) and seemed to to do well in his acceptance speech and the Liberals are happy, certainly a lot happier than many of them were with Trudeau in the last two or three years so it will be an interesting election. No statements yet as to whether he will try to win a seat in parliament or work from outside for a while.

 

[steantval]

15 minutes ago, peteb said:

 

You mean that he was 'truthful' and 'realistic'? 

 

Tell that to the people whose pensions were maturing while he was in charge making stupid comments.

[tegs07]

6 minutes ago, steantval said:

Tell that to the people whose pensions were maturing while he was in charge making stupid comments.

The terms mood music and jawboning are often used. Talking up or down rather than taking action. Interest rates are a blunt tool.

[peteb]

13 minutes ago, steantval said:

Tell that to the people whose pensions were maturing while he was in charge making stupid comments.

 

Isn't that just shooting the messenger? He was in charge from 2013 to 2020, when the economy was being mis-managed by an inept government. My understanding is that he attempted to modernize the BoE and used fiscal policy to encourage business lending, but couldn't perform miracles to counter incompetent political leadership. 

 

 

Edited 19 hours ago by peteb

[Count Bassy]

3 hours ago, peteb said:

 

Isn't that just shooting the messenger? He was in charge from 2013 to 2020, when the economy was being mis-managed by an inept government. My understanding is that he attempted to modernize the BoE and used fiscal policy to encourage business lending, but couldn't perform miracles to counter incompetent political leadership. 

 

 

Careful now. I'd hate to see this thread closed down.

Edited 16 hours ago by Count Bassy

[steantval]

5 hours ago, Count Bassy said:

Careful now. I'd hate to see this thread closed down.

Agree, let’s get back to the subject of the dangerous orange guy.

[Agent 00Soul]

Re Carney: it’s a sad testament to the status of progressivism when the guy chosen to lead the charge against an authoritarian neighbour, the so-called “good guy,” is a millionaire financier who managed the national banks of two countries and worked at Goldman Sachs. 
 

Re Age: most of the Jan 20 insurrectionists were Gen-X.  Trump was supported by nearly 60 percent of under 30 males and I think around 35% under 30 females in the last election. The seniors swung GOP like they usually do.  MAGA is pretty broad coalition of ages and conservative beliefs, the younger being the most radical as usual. (“End democracy and build something new” was a paraphrase of one Gen-Zer speech at CPAC).  The biggest split age-wise seems to be those who have a cult of personality around Trump, and those who see Trump as just the necessary first step, a blunt instrument, for more radical, right-wing, change. Unsurprisingly, the latter skews younger as they are more idealistic about the future and have more time. 
 

Edited 10 hours ago by Agent 00Soul

[tegs07]

2 minutes ago, Agent 00Soul said:

Re Carney: it’s a sad testament to the status of progressivism when the guy chosen to lead the charge against an authoritarian neighbour, the so-called “good guy,” is a millionaire financier who managed to the national banks of two countries and worked at Goldman Sachs. 

An alternative perspective is if your country has been put on an economic war path by a transactional bully then someone with a sound understanding of economics who has been in charge of fiscal policy during a financial crisis is the ideal candidate.

 

As for end democracy and build something new. Well let’s see who much economic pain will be tolerated in order to deliver this.

[Agent 00Soul]

13 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

An alternative perspective is if your country has been put on an economic war path by a transactional bully then someone with a sound understanding of economics who has been in charge of fiscal policy during a financial crisis is the ideal candidate.

 

As for end democracy and build something new. Well let’s see who much economic pain will be tolerated in order to deliver this.

Yes, we’ll see. But if anyone can wait it out it’s Gen-Z. They don’t have much or any chances acquiring a middle class life anyway, so I doubt they feel they have much to lose.  They have been conditioned to a world of low material expectations. Unless they are a majority-snowflake generation which would be ironic as hell. 
 

Maybe Carney is the white knight who will sishkebob Trump in the joust of international relations.  But still…yech! Just because he was anti-Brexit does not mean he isn’t part of the problem we as a society have by looking to rich people, the finance sector in particular, to save us.  Starmer and Reeves’ cloying charm offensive to the City when in the shadow cabinet was another example. 

Edited 9 hours ago by Agent 00Soul

[tegs07]

32 minutes ago, Agent 00Soul said:

Yes, we’ll see. But if anyone can wait it out it’s Gen-Z. They don’t have much or any chances acquiring a middle class life anyway, so I doubt they feel they have much to lose.  They have been conditioned to a world of low material expectations. Unless they are a majority-snowflake generation which would be ironic as hell. 
 

Maybe Carney is the white knight who will sishkebob Trump in the joust of international relations.  But still…yech! Just because he was anti-Brexit does not mean he isn’t part of the problem we as a society have by looking to rich people, the finance sector in particular, to save us.  Starmer and Reeves’ cloying charm offensive to the City when in the shadow cabinet was another example. 

If anyone can wait it out it is the wealthy who have invested in gold, property and have a portfolio designed to cope with economic turbulence. They can then watch the stock market and housing market crash and step in later picking up assets at record lows. Gen Z with little in the way of assets might even find their inheritance lifeline severely depleted.

 

Honestly I think from your comments you have identified many of the problems facing the world but your choice of saviours are the source thinly disguised in a red cap and a catchy slogan.

 

Edit: One of the reasons for assets like property being so expensive is that interest rates have been kept artificially low for decades and fiscal policy was loose allowing stimulus to prevent recession. A big reason is that although recession IMO is a necessity to restore balance in the economy it’s not popular with the electorate. Gen Z have never lived through a full on recession and I honestly don’t think that they have known the crushing misery of a 70s or 80s collapse let alone a 30s depression. If a grinding recession does happen I think they will be woefully underprepared and will massively underestimate the impact.

Edited 9 hours ago by tegs07

[prowla]

29 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

If anyone can wait it out it is the wealthy who have invested in gold, property and have a portfolio designed to cope with economic turbulence. They can then watch the stock market and housing market crash and step in later picking up assets at record lows. Gen Z with little in the way of assets might even find their inheritance lifeline severely depleted.

 

Honestly I think from your comments you have identified many of the problems facing the world but your choice of saviours are the source thinly disguised in a red cap and a catchy slogan.

 

Edit: One of the reasons for assets like property being so expensive is that interest rates have been kept artificially low for decades and fiscal policy was loose allowing stimulus to prevent recession. A big reason is that although recession IMO is a necessity to restore balance in the economy it’s not popular with the electorate. Gen Z have never lived through a full on recession and I honestly don’t think that they have known the crushing misery of a 70s or 80s collapse let alone a 30s depression. If a grinding recession does happen I think they will be woefully underprepared and will massively underestimate the impact.

They'll be able to ride it out by going back to live with their parents.

[tegs07]

2 minutes ago, prowla said:

They'll be able to ride it out by going back to live with their parents.

The middle class ones will. Not everyone has this safety net. Also plenty of Gen Z will have kids of their own.

Edited 9 hours ago by tegs07

[prowla]

2 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

The middle class ones will. Not everyone has this safety net. Also plenty of Gen Z will have kids of their own.

 

(It was slightly tongue-in-cheek.)

[tegs07]

What I find most interesting is the choice of the far right as saviours. Deregulation, loosing labour laws, defunding social services, cutting taxes, deporting immigrants, increasing the cost of imports etc

 

All solutions that can definitely deliver economic growth BUT are not designed to solve wealth inequality which is what a large percentage of people voting for them are most aggrieved about. They are also solutions that are somewhat overlapping and can be counterproductive so require careful management and implementation. Again this kind of subtle and calculated approach is not usually the modus operandi of  far right bombastic politics which is heavily dependent on charismatic leadership and theatrical hyperbole.

Edited 8 hours ago by tegs07
clarity

[steantval]

12 minutes ago, prowla said:

They'll be able to ride it out by going back to live with their parents.

That other large banking institution- The Bank of Mum & Dad.

[TimR]

There is no 'waiting it out' in the US. 

 

You're homeless with no healthcare. No one is coming to rescue you. Especially not Musk and Trump.

[Agent 00Soul]

1 hour ago, tegs07 said:

Honestly I think from your comments you have identified many of the problems facing the world but your choice of saviours are the source thinly disguised in a red cap and a catchy slogan.

 

Believe me, I am no MAGA or even truly conservative by 21st century standards (hence my comments about Carney/Starmer/Reeves/our society).  But I am a professional researcher and for the last 20 years I've spent in the darkest corners studying all of this and I really am trying to convey to people here how a lot of the people in those dark corners feel.  And of course, I'm from the USA originally so am offering some perspectives that might not make it to the UK/European press on the what's led to this point.  But I don't support it.

 

 

[Agent 00Soul]

33 minutes ago, TimR said:

There is no 'waiting it out' in the US. 

 

You're homeless with no healthcare. No one is coming to rescue you. Especially not Musk and Trump.

 

This.  Upvoted 5 zillion percent.  I personally wish the international press would explain this better.  

[SteveXFR]

I heard some goon on the radio claiming that a poll shows that 15% of Brits want the UK taken over by Trump. It was pointed out that also means 85% don't want that but they didn't get it and insisted we should have a referendum. I almost agree, it would send a message that we really don't want the orange man baby. 

[tegs07]

12 minutes ago, Agent 00Soul said:

 

Believe me, I am no MAGA or even truly conservative by 21st century standards (hence my comments about Carney/Starmer/Reeves/our society).  But I am a professional researcher and for the last 20 years I've spent in the darkest corners studying all of this and I really am trying to convey to people here how a lot of the people in those dark corners feel.  And of course, I'm from the USA originally so am offering some perspectives that might not make it to the UK/European press on the what's led to this point.  But I don't support it.

 

 

Interesting. I really get why people are aggrieved about the expanding wealth gap. Where I lose sympathy though is when people look for people to blame and even destroy in order to regain a sense of self worth. This is a negative and ugly attitude.

 

I also wonder how much people have bought into an idealised living your best life, technicolour, instant gratification vision of what it means to be an accepted and valued citizen.

 

It seems to me that the sellers of dreams are now upping the ante and offering a complete illusion designed to permanently reduce them to a precarious state of servitude.

[SteveXFR]

What I don't get is people who complain about others getting a pay rise instead of asking why they're not getting one.

[tegs07]

1 minute ago, SteveXFR said:

What I don't get is people who complain about others getting a pay rise instead of asking why they're not getting one.

Or who mock the diligent and motivated as brown nosers or swats.

 

Sometimes our class system has very effective breaks for limiting mobility.

 

[Steve Browning]

3 minutes ago, SteveXFR said:

What I don't get is people who complain about others getting a pay rise instead of asking why they're not getting one.

 

Very true. It's odd how the 'free market' can apply to everything but people's labour. 

[tegs07]

Just now, Steve Browning said:

 

Very true. It's odd how the 'free market' can apply to everything but people's labour. 

It can get very complex though when negotiating these things under certain economic conditions. For another debate.