Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[tegs07]

14 minutes ago, prowla said:

Or contributing into a pension plan.

I’m not sure I would class this as tax avoidance as in many ways you’re just shifting the tax payment from one stage of life to another. It’s not like pensions are a tax free benefit. It’s also shifting the burden of care from state responsibility to private responsibility.

[Agent 00Soul]

1 hour ago, Stub Mandrel said:

I am stunned that the disintegration of a proud, if hubristic, democracy can be so fast.

 

You could argue that the US version of democracy hasn't brought anything but gridlock and a gradually lowering standard of living for most Americans for a long time now.  A critical mass might have given up.  Even the US armed forces, which all swear allegiance to protecting the US constitution, not the government or president, seem to be going quietly.  I wonder what life will be like in America once all this is completed and how different it will be for people.

[tegs07]

17 minutes ago, Agent 00Soul said:

 

You could argue that the US version of democracy hasn't brought anything but gridlock and a gradually lowering standard of living for most Americans for a long time now.  A critical mass might have given up.  Even the US armed forces, which all swear allegiance to protecting the US constitution, not the government or president, seem to be going quietly.  I wonder what life will be like in America once all this is completed and how different it will be for people.

Like any other oligarchy. Extremely good for the people with money, power and influence. Not so great for everyone else. 

 

Edit: I still don’t believe any of this is a done deal. Wealthy and influential people tend to get upset when you start to meddle with their wealth. Oligarchs steal wealth and resources. It’s not a done deal by any means. The USA is not post USSR collapse.

 

That’s if they don’t leave! There does appear to be a big uptick of rich Americans leaving for Canada and Europe. 

Edited Saturday at 15:48 by tegs07

[tauzero]

On 21/03/2025 at 12:22, Wombat said:

My mate runs a big tool company and they already suffered this…. Fake invoice from a supplier just paid. They now have checks in place and won’t amend bank details without talking to someone they know.  Not sure how you deal with the fact that staff turnover is so high that I’d be surprised they could talk to someone they know more than once!

 

I remember about 40 years ago when I worked for West Midlands Gas, my boss saying that if he wanted to defraud them, he'd invoice them for lots of things but keeping the value of each invoice below the automatic approval threshold.

[tauzero]

21 hours ago, tegs07 said:

Can shrinking the size of government and making it more efficient work though? 

 

Is anything that Musk has done so far leading to positive results?

 

Depends if a positive result is having a job done by an incompetent white bloke rather than a competent black woman. Or if having fuel bills decrease because the world gets warmer is a positive result.

[SteveXFR]

On 21/03/2025 at 16:04, asingardenof said:

But now they do know he's a Nazi I don't think just slapping a sticker on your car is exactly a ringing condemnation

 

Some people will be stuck in a lease contract and some can't afford to trade it in now that used values are rapidly dropping. The owners taking a hit isn't going to hurt Musl is it? 

You don't punch yourself in the spuds to punish someone else.

[Agent 00Soul]

2 hours ago, tegs07 said:

That’s if they don’t leave! There does appear to be a big uptick of rich Americans leaving for Canada and Europe. 

 

I've heard about this.  Something a brain drain could happen.  Two of my American friends have already left (to the UK and France), and retiring abroad, mostly to Latin America, has been popular for a few years now for people in search of peace and quiet.  Heck, even I left for good in 2020, in the last year of Trump's first term.  I could see the writing on the wall.  The zeitgeist had gotten too nihilistic and hostile.

[Downunderwonder]

7 hours ago, Wombat said:

In certain circumstances…

But avoidance could be as simple as buying one product over another as one as a tariff applied.

I'd like to know how much sales tax let alone taxes on profit Netfix et al paid last year anywhere. Trump wants to talk about ripoffs, start with your own companies. The Canadians already did.

 

SOP for a US multinational is to have the overseas company making no profit.

 

Then little counties wise up and make themselves into tax havens so multinationals can decamp there. Up yours.

 

NZ had to start enforcement on sales tax by rewriting law. The whining, the legal pushnack, the whining and final acceptance.

 

But no profit made in NZ. Whatever. I could quite happily increase GST on foreign supplied goods and services. It's only cheaper for you to distribute your stuff using the postal system out of your offshore base because we let you.

[edstraker123]

9 hours ago, Steve Browning said:

Or taking a salary partly in dividends, because they have a lower rate of tax

Or the self employed not declaring their full income.

[Wombat]

Thats evasion….

[prowla]

4 hours ago, edstraker123 said:

Or the self employed not declaring their full income.

 

4 hours ago, Wombat said:

Thats evasion….

Yep.

Anybody who has done or had a job done "cash in hand", bought a retail item for cash, etc. has likely contributed to tax evasion.

[Steve Browning]

Back in my VAT man days, the average across the Department was every other visit resulted in a bill to the trader. 

 

For the most part it was pretty easy. Sometimes a cash reconciliation. Other times it would be more subtle. 

 

You ask the plumber if he keeps a stock of radiators  for example. He'll say no, so you count the number bought on his invoices and deduct the number on his sales invoices. Then you ask where the balance is kept. Simples. 

[Burns-bass]

Just now, Steve Browning said:

Back in my VAT man days, the average across the Department was every other visit resulted in a bill to the trader. 

 

For the most part it was pretty easy. Sometimes a cash reconciliation. Other times it would be more subtle. 

 

You ask the plumber if he keeps a stock of radiators  for example. He'll say no, so you count the number bought on his invoices and deduct the number on his sales invoices. Then you ask where the balance is kept. Simples. 

I find VAT to be fiendishly complex and the systems we use to record it poorly designed.

 

A friend of mine runs several shops with turnover exceeding £1m. He was investigated by HMRC and they treated him with respect and understanding. While there were inevitably discrepancies with VAT, they dealt with him as a professional - not as an adversary.

 

In many case, my own included, I’m sure I mess up my tax at times. But I do my best - as do most business people. 
 

I do l use pension contributions to reduce my corporation tax bill. This isn’t a tax dodge but one of the (rapidly diminishing) benefits.

[Steve Browning]

Quite. In VAT, you owe it if we can prove it. The only objective is for it to be correct. You don't need to be an ar$e about it. 

 

Many were genuine mistakes of course. 

 

I'm afraid anything not available to everyone is avoidance in my opinion. I don't blame anyone for taking advantage of it (who wouldn't). We should all be subject to the same treatment. Purely my own view. 

[Steve Browning]

15 minutes ago, Burns-bass said:

I find VAT to be fiendishly complex.

 

I find that a little odd. What do you find complex? That's a genuine question. 

 

There are a lot of free resources to help. Even the HMRC guides for inspectors are on line. 

[Burns-bass]

6 minutes ago, Steve Browning said:

 

I find that a little odd. What do you find complex? That's a genuine question. 

 

There are a lot of free resources to help. Even the HMRC guides for inspectors are on line. 

Making Tax Digital means we all have to use systems like Xero or Quickbooks. They’re fiddly and annoying.

 

[Burns-bass]

18 minutes ago, Steve Browning said:

Quite. In VAT, you owe it if we can prove it. The only objective is for it to be correct. You don't need to be an ar$e about it. 

 

Many were genuine mistakes of course. 

 

I'm afraid anything not available to everyone is avoidance in my opinion. I don't blame anyone for taking advantage of it (who wouldn't). We should all be subject to the same treatment. Purely my own view. 

The Government does this by applying a 25% uplift to post tax pension contributions. This equals it pit, pretty much.

 

Many of the “benefits” of running a Ltd company are created that way to enable people to deal with a variable income. Mine fluctuates widely across the year, for example.

 

Britain is a strange place where economic growth is vital, yet we often treat business people as if they’re all on the take. Strange.

[Steve Browning]

Personally, I'm not suggesting someone is on the take if they take advantage of avoidance. I just believe everyone should be treated the same. 

[Steve Browning]

14 minutes ago, Burns-bass said:

Making Tax Digital means we all have to use systems like Xero or Quickbooks. They’re fiddly and annoying.

 

Ok. It's more about the accounting rather than VAT itself. It was quite the headache when it came in.

[Burns-bass]

1 minute ago, Steve Browning said:

Personally, I'm not suggesting someone is on the take if they take advantage of avoidance. I just believe everyone should be treated the same. 

I think you’re implying it, which is fair enough. 

I just can’t live my life assuming the worst of everyone. Guess that why I’d make a terrible tax inspector!

 

Tax is like rent. The more you pay, the better the place you get. I voted for Jeremy Corbyn (remember him?). 

[Steve Browning]

You have got completely the wrong end of the stick. You are doing nothing wrong.

 

Talking of implying, I do not spend my life assuming the worst of everyone. 

[TimR]

17 minutes ago, Steve Browning said:

Personally, I'm not suggesting someone is on the take if they take advantage of avoidance. I just believe everyone should be treated the same. 

 

Should unemployed people be given free money? How is that treating everyone the same.

 

We don't treat everyone the same. We have a system that tries to make thinks fair and the same rules are applied to EVERYONE, there are no 'loopholes' that are only available to 'rich' people. And we tax rich people more, so again, that's not treating everyone the same, its making things fair. 

 

It depends on your political views as to whether you think some people should be more equal than others. 

[TimR]

23 hours ago, prowla said:

The laws of physics say that every action has an equal and opposite reaction.

Putting up tariffs is not just something that the US does to other nations.

The behaviour of the boss of Tesla discourages people from buying the product.

 

Politiks is not Physiks.

 

Some actions cause much bigger and worse reactions. 

[tegs07]

So from the comments from Witcoff it looks like the USA is firmly in the Russian grip. Trump is totally seduced by the idea of making money from Ukraine and Russia.

 

Its fairly easy to see big chunks of Ukraine being ceded to Russia with no backstop or any security guarantees.

Next up is the time to re-arm and take the entire country in a few years time.

 

In the interim there will continue to be hybrid warfare in Europe. Disinformation and election interference will probably mean Hungary and Romania will be pro Russian and voting against the EU in security issues and in terms of DEI and other core EU principles.

 

At some point I expect para military activity in Estonia and Moldova to “demilitarise and de-natzifi” the areas for the Russian speaking population.

 

To make matters worse NATO is no longer an effective deterrent without Article 5 and there is already evidence that US intelligence can be cut off at will to suit any Trump agenda. This intelligence is deeply embedded with the US and difficult to untangle. NATO are effectively blind without the USA.

 

The mechanisms for feeding intelligence about Russian threats via the CIA and the training and geopolitical awareness strategies for the US military are systematically being dismantled. This is unprecedented and will weaken the US ability to determine present threat levels (they will be decided by the Trump inner circle) and destroy the massive advantage that the USA always had of staying one step ahead of what to invest in to prepare for future war and conflict.

 

We are sleepwalking towards some serious re-shaping of the world order and our biggest ally is slowly becoming a threat to European economic and physical security.

 

Edit: @peteb do I think you are correct about China becoming more of an ally to Europe than Russia. Yes and No. I don’t think it’s possible to untangle the Russian military alliance to make a clear case for this but under the Trump administration the USA is well on the road to becoming a Russian puppet state.

Edited yesterday at 08:02 by tegs07

[Steve Browning]

3 minutes ago, TimR said:

 

Should unemployed people be given free money? How is that treating everyone the same.

 

We don't treat everyone the same. We have a system that tries to make thinks fair and the same rules are applied to EVERYONE, there are no 'loopholes' that are only available to 'rich' people. And we tax rich people more, so again, that's not treating everyone the same, its making things fair. 

 

It depends on your political views as to whether you think some people should be more equal than others. 

Sorry Tim. I don't believe your interpretation is valid.

 

Yes, fairness is important. You may view helping the unemployed as free money but I don't. 

 

Any company director earning more than the personal allowance would be able to take advantage of avoidance. I wouldn't define someone on 13k rich.