Trump's tariff wars...long post.

[tegs07]

19 minutes ago, BigRedX said:

 

Very little of that is actually MADE in the US

very little of anything is actually made in its entirety in the USA!

 

My point of listing those companies was to illustrate that Trump whinging about the world ripping off the US because we don’t buy their cars or chicken is just absurd. The US dominates much of the western hemisphere with what it does best. Technology, weapons, media, services etc etc

 

Trump is trying to turn back the clock to the 1950s but keep the wages, health and safety and environmental standards of the 2020s. It’s fantasy land. Why would you want to do the dirty work when Mexico is on your border? 
Why produce low ticket item goods with big industrial emissions when you have silicon valley?

Edited 20 hours ago by tegs07

[BigRedX]

I just had a look at all the things in my office/music room that are from US-based brands...

 

I have a load a of Apple stuff but that's all made in China. Three Dell monitors also made in China. An Eastwood bass with a Made In Korea sticker on the back of the headstock and a Line6 Helix which says Made In China on the base and anyway Line6 are now owned by Yamaha. And that's it. I don't even knowingly eat or drink anything that is any way associated with the US.

 

All my other electronics are UK, European or Far Eastern brands and all my other guitars were made in the UK. The furniture came from Ikea. 

[Al Krow]

iPhones are made in...China

and about to go up by 54% in price in the US, or are Apple going to take big hit on margins?

Apple is down 7.5% overnight in pre market trading - that's a $250 billion drop in value btw. To put that in context it's the equivalent of the UK's most valuable company, Astra Zeneca, going bust overnight.

Either way, if you happen to be a US consumer or a US pension fund investor with a stake in Apple, ouch!!

 

Wonder how many MAGA supporters buy iPhones?

[prowla]

3 hours ago, Burns-bass said:

The old “unnamed source”.

 

More to do with Tesla’s poor sales figures, Tesla being over taken by BYD as the world biggest electric car manufacturer and the slide of its shares.

 

But maybe his principles of cutting waste and reshaping the US economy go beyond the shallow ambition of accumulating wealth. I’m sure they do…

 

 

I momentarily read "Tesla being taken over by BYD"!

[borntohang]

3 hours ago, Woodinblack said:

I think regardless of the current rumours going around about musk, it was always going to have a short time span, as they both really suffer from needing to be the 'Main Character', and you cant have two main characters.

Also yesterdays result of musk actually bribing voters with large sums of money (not sure how that is legal, I guess it doesn't matter in america) failing to win their guy in wisconsin wouldn't have helped.

The million dollar Pennsylvania giveaways during the November election were rigged so skated through both lottery and bribery laws. They weren't choosing random voters who signed up - the winners all turned out to be prominent local conservative activists who were already members of the PAC and had been chosen beforehand. Lying to influence an election is legal, as we already know. 

 

There is a second element, which is that Trump's team already know that they can just move faster than the courts and put off any consequences until they are meaningless.

[prowla]

1 hour ago, Woodinblack said:

 

"It’s hard to state just how nonsensical that actually is. You might as well divide the numbers of apples in your kitchen by the number of bagels and use it to calculate your mortgage rate. To criticise it on political or economic grounds is too generous. It operates below the level of rational thought. "

 

In my case that would come out as infinity, as I have a few apples but no bagels!

[prowla]

9 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

iPhones are made in...China

and about to go up by 54% in price in the US, or are Apple going to take big hit on margins?

Apple is down 7.5% overnight in pre market trading - that's a $250 billion drop in value btw. To put that in context it's the equivalent of the UK's most valuable company, Astra Zeneca, going bust overnight.

Either way, if you happen to be a US consumer or a US pension fund investor with a stake in Apple, ouch!!

 

Wonder how many MAGA supporters buy iPhones?

Are you saying he hasn't really thought this through?

[prowla]

1 hour ago, Kiwi said:

I laughed out loud when I read the MacDonalds Islands, which are uninhabited and governed by Australia, were slapped with a 10% tariff.  The penguins...think of the penguins.

Looks like there's something fishy going on?

[Cato]

The US owned sports shoe industry is going to take a big hit as well, especially as Nike and others pivoted away from China to set up production in Vietnam specifically to swerve future tariffs on Chinese made goods.

 

Now Vietnam is getting tariffed at 46% so all that cost and effort in setting up new production facilities has pretty much gone for nothing.

 

I think I'm correct in saying that the only US big brand sports shoe company that actually still has some production facilities in the US is New Balance, so  it looks like every major brand of trainers apart from NB is going to get tariffed in the US.

 

TL:DR It's a bad day to be buying trainers in the US.

 

I wonder how many more examples of pretty much the whole market for an item including the US owned brands being hit there will be. 

 

 

Edited 19 hours ago by Cato

[tegs07]

long term the big winner from all this is China who really do seem to be a more stable investment choice at the moment. building a manufacturing base (from scratch) involves massive capital upfront. Trumps leadership is all over the place. deportations one day, requests for immigrant workers the next, insulting leaders one minute, expecting cordial relations the next, flirting with russia one minute, threatening greenland the next.

 

this is just this month!

Edited 19 hours ago by tegs07

[LukeFRC]

16 minutes ago, Cato said:

TL:DR It's a bad day to be buying trainers in the US.

Actually today would be a good day. Get them before the prices go up...

[tegs07]

4 minutes ago, LukeFRC said:

Actually today would be a good day. Get them before the prices go up...

or down or sideways 

[Al Krow]

19 minutes ago, tegs07 said:

long term the big winner from all this is China who really do seem to be a more stable investment choice at the moment. building a manufacturing base (from scratch) involves massive capital upfront. Trumps leadership is all over the place. deportations one day, requests for immigrant workers the next, insulting leaders one minute, expecting cordial relations the next, flirting with russia one minute, threatening greenland the next.

 

this is just this month!

 

Except Trump will be gone in 4 years. China will still be a totalitarian dictatorship.

[tegs07]

8 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

 

Except Trump will be gone in 4 years. China will still be a totalitarian dictatorship.

I don’t think this has bothered any companies in the past so I can’t see any ethical objections from them (or the end customer) in the future. Right now China looks more stable than the USA. This is not just for production. The US doesn’t even seem a safe bet for military alliances. If the US isn’t looking ahead for its economic or geopolitical interests then I would bet money that it’s rivals will seize these opportunities. 

Edited 19 hours ago by tegs07

[Cato]

15 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

 

Except Trump will be gone in 4 years. China will still be a totalitarian dictatorship.

 

Unless of course the Deep State forces Trump to declare a state of emergency and he has to temporarily suspend elections until the threat is over.

 

I'm half expecting it to happen if only because the changes he's making to America  seem like they're intended to be permanent.

 

Edited 19 hours ago by Cato

[Woodinblack]

 

52 minutes ago, BigRedX said:

I just had a look at all the things in my office/music room that are from US-based brands...

 

I have a USA Gibson. From 1978, I guess the tax dollars have long gone on that one!

 

45 minutes ago, prowla said:

I momentarily read "Tesla being taken over by BYD"!

 

Give it a while

 

42 minutes ago, prowla said:

In my case that would come out as infinity, as I have a few apples but no bagels!

 

Well, I am sure when they put reciprocal tarrifs on america, trump will ratchet up to infinity percent tarrif!

 

8 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

Except Trump will be gone in 4 years. China will still be a totalitarian dictatorship.

 

Don't write him off yet, I am sure in 4 years trump can get there too!

[Crusoe]

3 minutes ago, Woodinblack said:

 

 

I have a USA Gibson. From 1978, I guess the tax dollars have long gone on that one!

 

 

Give it a while

 

 

Well, I am sure when they put reciprocal tarrifs on america, trump will ratchet up to infinity percent tarrif!

 

 

Don't write him off yet, I am sure in 4 years trump can get there too!

There's talk of him standing down before his time is up, so that Vance becomes president. He nominates Trump as his VP, then stands down so that Trump becomes president again. Whether or not that is legal or constitutional is a different matter...

[SumOne]

1 hour ago, tegs07 said:

very little of anything is actually made in its entirety in the USA!

 

My point of listing those companies was to illustrate that Trump whinging about the world ripping off the US because we don’t buy their cars or chicken is just absurd. The US dominates much of the western hemisphere with what it does best. Technology, weapons, media, services etc etc

 

Trump is trying to turn back the clock to the 1950s but keep the wages, health and safety and environmental standards of the 2020s. It’s fantasy land. Why would you want to do the dirty work when Mexico is on your border? 
Why produce low ticket item goods with big industrial emissions when you have silicon valley?

 

I wonder if there is an element of 'cultural revolution/great leap forward' type of power play from Trump? Purge the intellectuals, get everyone working in working-class manufacturing and farming jobs.  

 

That's probably giving him too much credit, he's probably just trying to please his key voters, stay in the headlines and consolidate his power and making it up as he goes along.

[tegs07]

8 minutes ago, SumOne said:

 

I wonder if there is an element of 'cultural revolution/great leap forward' type of power play from Trump? Purge the intellectuals, get everyone working in working-class manufacturing and farming jobs.  

 

That's probably giving him too much credit, he's probably just trying to please his key voters, stay in the headlines and consolidate his power and making it up as he goes along.

honestly i just think he’s an idiot. generally having a charismatic idiot in charge is not really a problem. the problem comes about when the idiot surrounds himself with other idiots who isolate themselves from people who actually know what they’re doing.

 

i am prepared to eat my words and bow down to his unfettered genius if the usa doesn’t go into recession and the stock market doesn’t crash. some of his supporters say that this is the plan. induce a major recession, get all the investors back into treasuries, reduce the yield and interest payments, get the debt under control and kick start borrowing and investment. obviously a bunch of contradictions in this logic but he could literally pull his pants down and take a dump on the oval office carpet and maga would find genius behind this.

Edited 19 hours ago by tegs07

[Woodinblack]

14 minutes ago, Crusoe said:

There's talk of him standing down before his time is up, so that Vance becomes president. He nominates Trump as his VP, then stands down so that Trump becomes president again. Whether or not that is legal or constitutional is a different matter...

 

Yeh, the ammendment is pretty clear: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once". Which also excludes him from being vice president.

[Al Krow]

Don't over-estimate the guy.

 

Prediction of how it's going to play out:

 

Tariffs lead to inflation in the US and an economic downturn. Poll numbers for Trump go south rapidly. The Democrats start finding their voice. Republicans get caned in the mid term elections. Trump ends his time as President, discredited, deserted by his out of work base and a lame duck.

In the meantime the UK and US sign a trade deal and the UK becomes an attractive place to do business.

China faces 54% tariffs to add to its impending demographic crisis = 600 MILLION fewer Chinese by the end of this century. A younger more vibrant democracy to its south, with a billion souls and cheaper workforce and "only" 26% US tariffs, starts rediscovering its mojo and presents an attractive alternative.

My band get our new showreel done, and I finally manage to get off-book on 5 hours of set material and enjoy the freedom of not having to glance quite so much at my tablet!

 

Will check on this little prediction on Nov 3rd 2026...hoping at least the last of the above will have come good by then.

 

 

Edited 18 hours ago by Al Krow

[tegs07]

14 minutes ago, Al Krow said:

n the meantime the UK and US sign a trade deal and the UK becomes an attractive place to do business.

not sure about this bit. we seem to be very adept at making a mess of every opportunity.

[TimR]

39 minutes ago, Crusoe said:

There's talk of him standing down before his time is up,

 

Trump has "extraordinary physical strength and stamina" and is "the healthiest individual ever elected to the presidency", a recent medical exam yielded "only positive results".

 

Signed My Doctor...

 

He has heart ddisease. He is obese and obviously has other health issues alongside possible dementia. 

 

Less than 75% chance of him living out the remaining term. 

[chris_b]

49 minutes ago, Woodinblack said:

 

Yeh, the ammendment is pretty clear: "No person shall be elected to the office of the President more than twice, and no person who has held the office of President, or acted as President, for more than two years of a term to which some other person was elected President shall be elected to the office of the President more than once". Which also excludes him from being vice president.

 

That’s effectively what Putin did to side step the Russian presidential rules. President to prime minister and back to president again. Then he scrapped the lot.

 

That's exactly what is going on in the US. Trump is a clown, but the guys in grey suits coming behind him are the really dangerous ones.

[tauzero]

2 hours ago, prowla said:

I momentarily read "Tesla being taken over by BYD"!

 

Give them six months.